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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy live on the bubble gamble?

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live on the bubble gamble?

badabing78

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November 6, 2011 - 10:48 pm

200$ live tourney 45min level mid 2nd day on the moneybubble (29players, 27 paid) blinds 6k/12k

utg all in ~110k (just dbld up the previous hand with a5, ok player, been on the table with him for several hours, range Ax or any pairl,was not happy when the button called him)

button call all in ~100k (a bit on the tight side, not a good player, range Aj+, 99+, but was somehow insecure and took some time with his deceision, no hollywood always showed his real emotions dont think he has aa or kk)

2 scenarios:

#1 hero bb AQo ~200k ?

#2 hero bb AKo ~ 200k ?

i know the save way is to fold but if we take the gamble and win … if we lose we still have a lil left

what would you do with either hand?

DannyN13

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November 7, 2011 - 4:54 pm

I think I am going with both of those hands and putting myself in the postion to win the tournament if I win that pot. If you lose you can still make the money and you still have fold equity when u shove with 8+ bbs especially since its a live tourney. 45 min levels you have 2 orbits to get your chips in with fold equity it looks like if you lose.

FkCoolers

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November 7, 2011 - 5:52 pm

Going with it and can maybe limp my way to a mincash with 8.5bb if I lose the hand.

Cougars4444

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November 9, 2011 - 3:14 pm

I'm going with it as well here and giving myself a much better chance at a top 3 finish.

badabing78

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November 9, 2011 - 4:28 pm

thx guys for the response,

i went with it (AQo), for the same reasons you guys have mentioned, i dont play for mincash i wanna have a legitimate chance to win this tourney and if i lose this hand i still have a chance to come back.

i was just asking cause when i flipped my cards over some guys at the table had been very surprised that i had called with aq and didnt understand and even an old reg (who is an extremely tag player but locally very succesful) immediately told me that he thought that was a huge mistake. also a friend of mine told me he would call there with AKs but not with AQo

for info i lost this hand

but got the nxt hand KK and got it in preflop vs the big stack and lost vs T8

but if i'd won that hand i would have been immediately back to 180k

FkCoolers

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November 9, 2011 - 8:46 pm

Live poker players are usually huge nits so that's why you got looks of surprise – they aren't really evolving with the game which means they'll get destroyed online and in any reasonably tough live field.

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