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730 PM tournament at Ebro Dogtrack in Ebro, Florida
Blinds are 4K/2K 500 Antes
Seven players left and we're ITM. 7th place is guaranteed $99 ($50 BI)
I have about 15K in chips and am the short stack, on the SB, with AJo.
Guy from LP (wearing a WSOP Ring that I assume he won on the circuit) shoves his 31K stack.
Guy OTB calls his shove. This guy is a older, loose-aggro fish and probably drunk. He has the initial AI covered.
I am planning on calling the initial shove if it comes to me with no other action. I've seen this guy shove a similar stack the level before with ATo so I know he isn't just shoving premium hands. The button call has me confused here though. There's a chance I'm ahead of both of them preflop, but the chance to see another player eliminated and move up in the money is evident (6th place pays out $139). Still, I don't have a lot of chips here, OBV.
What do I do?
Fold!! Even if they turn over less than AJ I dont feel bad about it.
If it folds to us it's a super easy call against IR
3 way and the fact that btn flats – i'm folding too
15bb shove from a good or very good player is obv wider than ATo
probably more like 25% including all pairs (excl monsters) most aces, a bunch of K's and all broadways and some sc's
even if drunk guy has A8,A9 AT in his calling range we are surprisingly not good at all
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 1: 31.141% 29.28% 01.86% 15920416737 1013787338.83 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 34.128% 31.60% 02.53% 17181327636 1377196731.33 { 77+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 34.731% 31.54% 03.19% 17152673297 1733780193.83 { AcJd }
I guess in the heat of the game its not that easy a fold given you can easily put both of them on hands you beat. Small stack sizes around the table and tight players to our left could make the fold a bit easier.
Thanks for the feedback, and I did end up folding the hand.
Appreciate you stoving the ranges, they seem completely on par with what I was thinking. The issue had more to do with my stack size. I had less than 4bb at this point, so I'm wondering if this is as good of time as any to get it in against probably relative hand strengths and triple up?
By the way, two hands later, it folded to me on the CO with K5s and I shoved. Ended up getting called by the BB with T8s. He hit a T on the flop and I was done. I was a little perturbed that he called there, but I guess he was getting like 3-1 odds to call and had a decent stack. I guess I can't blame him.
July 3, 2010
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Eh I don't mind getting it in if you're going for the win. It's really one of the only scenarios that's going to help you.
I know the Stove ranges but you have 4 bb's lol… Doubt you get a better hand than this in the next orbit or two on average and no one can mathematically fold to a push from you.
I think it's pretty close and either decision is probably ok. By the way, the hands were CO – ATo and BTN – KJo. Board had a ten on and four hearts. I had the Ah.
Other things I believe should be factored in here are how
The 2 guys to your left have been playing and how many
chips they have.
Also…how soon are the blinds going up?
If you think you have fold equity you can fold this hand And jam if folded to the next couple of hands.
If you have no fold equity anyway then this is a snap call imo.
I actually think this is a call most of the time.
apologies for the MICRO font in my pokerstove ranges
FkCoolers said:
Eh I don't mind getting it in if you're going for the win. It's really one of the only scenarios that's going to help you.
I know the Stove ranges but you have 4 bb's lol… Doubt you get a better hand than this in the next orbit or two on average and no one can mathematically fold to a push from you.
i think coolers is dead on here. shame on any1 folding or even considering folding. play for the win. u have less than 5bb and the initial raiser has less than 8bb. u will not find a betterhand in this spot to get it in. if u run into a real hand at this spot its essentially a cooler. the flat call sucks but this will likely be the best hand for rest of tourny. play and win…
bjizz
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