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Live 300: BTN vs BB River range analysis
Julius187
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March 5, 2014 - 3:28 pm
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This hand comes from late Day 1A in a $300 re-entry tournament with 3 starting flights.

Table is mostly competent and pretty aggressive with almost all pots being raised and a good amount of them being 3bet. Definitely a tougher than average table for a $300 tournament. There are two nitty players two and 3 to my left who I've been attacking their blinds pretty widely. My image at the table is probably on the LAG side though not too crazy, and I've shown a willingness to defend my blind often mostly by flatting small opens.

Villain is an asian male (Hoa Nguyen a Borgata reg with a few wins under his belt, though I didn't know who he was at the time), he arrived at the table about 2 orbits ago, and I've seem open to various sizes and make a very small 3bet out of position. My assumption at this point is he is somewhat competent, though some of his sizings has me thinking that is probably playing exploitable and probably unbalanced in some spots.

Forgive me as details aren't super clear as I waited too long to post this 

Blinds are 1500/3000 with a 400 ante. Hero is in the big blind with ~160k, Villain is on the button with a similar stack size. There are a couple of 200k+ stacks at the table, I want to say we are 3rd and 4th in chips at the table, one or 2 short stacks. Our table is 8 handed at the moment.

(7700)
Action folds to Villain on the button who opens to 8000, small blind folds and Hero 3bets to 21000, Villain calls.

Flop (46700) 763
Hero bets 15500, Villain calls

Turn (77000) T
Hero bets 26000, Villain calls

River (129700) 4
Hero checks, Villain bets 36100

I would like to first know what do Hero and Villains ranges look like before giving my actual holding and my options facing the river decision. Thoughts appreciated and looking forward to the discussion.

rivermen123

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March 5, 2014 - 8:32 pm
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Julius187 said:

(7700)
Action folds to Villain on the button who opens to 8000, small blind folds and Hero 3bets to 21000, Villain calls.

Flop (46700) 763
Hero bets 15500, Villain calls

Turn (77000) T
Hero bets 26000, Villain calls

River (129700) 4
Hero checks, Villain bets 36100

I would like to first know what do Hero and Villains ranges look like before giving my actual holding and my options facing the river decision. Thoughts appreciated and looking forward to the discussion.

Wow this is pretty interesting. Given the overall aggressive dynamic, this is a tough one. Seems like tons of leveling involved.

Preflop: ranges are pretty wide. Aggressive players don't like raise/folding button vs bb, so I don't think villain's range is very well defined yet. I think he's going to flat your 3bet with most of his already very wide opening range.

Flop: Villain is getting about 4-1, so I think villain's range remains fairly wide when he calls, although I think we can discount flopped monsters (76 and probably sets) because he doesn't raise. IMO he can still have overcards that he intends on turning into a bluff later, but he can also still have lots of one-pair hands that he hooded your 3bet with (some of which have straight draws). I think hero is still pretty wide also, since he'll more than likely be continuing with all his bluffs (although his bluffing frequency is debatable due to the fact that he shouldn't expect a lot of folds pre).

Turn: Hero's sizing is pretty small, but still I suppose it's fairly standard in a 3bet pot. It seems to me that there's a leveling game on this turn, revolving around the fact that villain knows you don't expect him to fold this turn card, but that you're giving him a good price anyway. I still don't think his range changes very much here, although now we can be fairly certain he doesn't have a monster (like a slowplayed set or flopped straight). I suppose hero can still have overpairs, but I'm not sure how often he's double barreling with his bluffs. He should definitely be firing again with his value hands, though.

River: Hero should probably be checking most of his range here, since this looks like a runout that clearly favors villain. A few of his marginal hands are now monsters now that any 5x is a straight. Villain's bet size screams value. His range depends a lot upon how wide you think he's hooding you preflop. Can he have 74 suited, 64 suited, etc? Was he priced out of peeling flop and turn with those hands? I don't think it's unreasonable to think he gets to the river with those hands, given the pot odds he was offered, assuming he's peeling wide in position against your 3bet pre. I think check jamming would be suicidal because it's pretty hard for hero to be holding a 5, unless it's A5hh, and also because on this type of board, villain isn't going to expect you to check a straight. River checkraises on 4-straight boards are very often bluffs IMO. If you have the straight, you're not going to check and risk missing value, because 4-straight boards get checked behind so often.

Interesting hand. Looking forward to further discussion. Hopefully the fact that I typed all this out while 8 tabling didn't cause me to miss something important.  yell

Julius187
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March 6, 2014 - 10:15 am
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For what it's worth, I think my turn sizing here was pretty bad, a function of not adamantly keeping track of the size of the pot and trying to leverage stacks for a river shove had I wanted to do so. The way these stacks are set up I feel like I should be shoving river with my monsters and air fairly often.

 

We don't know too much about how wide villain is going to be calling here, nor whether his larger open means he's strong, weak, or just trying to apply more pressure because I don't like to give up my blind easily (not sure if he knows that yet either though).

 

While I probably don't have any 5s besides A5/K5/Q5/J5hh (I'd be more inclined to 3bet these rather than flat because of his larger open), I don't think he really has any 5s either. I'm also not checking any of those hands on the river. I had a really hard time putting villain on a range here that needs to bet the river, though if he's good he can value bet pretty thinly here? In villain's spot are any of value betting A7/88/99 on the river?

pckrrr
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March 6, 2014 - 11:52 am
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flop sizing is also to small, just make it bigger to jam or give up the turn. 

 

I wouldn't be valuebetting A7, 88 and 99 in villains spot. OTT Your range is very polarized to overpairs and bluffs, you probably jam most of your bluffs on river, so I don't see any value from worse hands. 

redvulture61
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March 6, 2014 - 11:50 pm
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You Probaly have an Overpair to this board and decing what to do on the river it is a tough spot. I think this is a flop we want to Check  most of our range as the 3bettor but knowing Villians 3bet calling range in  this spot would help a lot. I can't be screwed constructing solid continuing ranges on this flop at the momemnt but i might come back later and give it a shot and some more analysis. In a vacuum  though, i think this is a bet that is expected to be called a lot of the time so it is unlikely a bluff. 

theginger45

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March 11, 2014 - 2:00 pm
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Rivermen123 kinda nailed it I think, but I'll give a general perspective. Your range looks a lot like overpairs that are trying to bluffcatch/don't think they can get 3 streets, or maybe a Tx kind of hand that caught the turn. Also some overcard combos or Ax suited combos that are just giving up. Not a great board for your range really.

His range looks like a few Tx hands that floated and caught the turn, some sets, the occasional Axhh hand, maybe some straights and 2pair hands as well if his flatting range vs the 3bet is really wide. Seems like a river where you're going to be check/folding a lot of your range, though.

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