I thought we could start a discussion about what players have observed as far as what particular lines villans take and what it may mean what type of hand/range they have.
Example the float on a super wet no made hands board from the blinds or oop and then villan leads turn. I feel this is a often a draw. This is less true to lower you go in stakes, but I feel it's pretty solid. Of course some % of the time it's a huge hand villan slow played. This is not likely do to all the possible draws. I also feel it's less likely when stks are short. Villan might be on top set and wants to check shove.
What are you thoughts on this line and others similar.
I think something that a lot of micro/low stakes players struggle with is wanting to believe that a villains line is more creative or indicates more than it actually does. More often than not (something in the 90+% range) when a micro/low stakes guy bets he has connected. The harder he bets, the more he has connected. I know a lot of players will convince themselves that if the guy overbets the pot he is trying to scare me away with something small, when it reality it typically ends up being a big hand played by a guy who doesn't really understand bet sizing and this is his attempt at value. The other big one is the 4x-9x opens late. They might as well be playing face up. Get out of the way of these unless you have something HUGE! These almost invariably turn out to be large PP's or AK/AQ type hands that are just looking for someone foolish enough to gamble with.
So in general I would say that micro/low stakes lines are typically not fibbing to you. The other is how to react to a flush draw. So many players are scared to death when a monotone flop comes. My advice to you on these is, they are not actually that likely to complete the flush with players (even loose players) any significant percent of the time. More often then not what you are looking at is a naked Ace or a single card of the suit that is looking to try to get there. Play cautiously and read the action, but there is no reason to go run for the hills immediately.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ +this
Totally agree. I've got burned many times by misreading those big overbets by bad players – esp on the flop. Many times this their way of protecting their hand – even when the board is dry and there is little chance an opponent will improve to a better hand.
And sometimes after everyone folds, they will proudly show their hand after they just made a bet that will virtually always folds out worse and never better.
I think you have to be mindful of this in live mtts also, even in the higher buy-ins, esp when there are so many recreational players playing mtts these days. That $560 or $1100 tournament entry fee might seem like a considerable amount of money to some pple, but in a casino setting, that 1k could be a total flier to someone who had a big day at the blackjack table the day before and is taking a shot in a poker tournament for the fun of it.
Well, first off great thread. Everyone should be contributing to this one….
secondly spot on post by paulgees ive also learned that myself the hard way.
It seems as tho these days everyone is taught when the Button opens and the BB flats and “donkleads” to never respect this bet and either float or 3bet. (granted this does work a majority of the time vs shitty/weak opponents). Well since this is becoming the norm ive decided to always do the opposite and check my top pair hands from the bb barring any major reads and lead when i flop sets/straights/watever….obv this doesnt apply every time cuz poker is so player dependent and situational.
EXAMPLE: I swear this was the ONLY line that would ever get me to double here flopping the nuts and i feel as tho this may be one of the best hands Ive ever played from a metagame perspective. And since the majority of people dont know my game its nearly impossible to put me on this….I basically double levelled him. bad.
Right near the bubble. Super active table with tons of light opening and i have by no means been a nit.
Full Tilt Poker $23,000 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400/t800 Blinds + t100 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
loose_cannon_jj (CO): BB = 17.0, t13609
pock_nug (BTN): BB = 20.1, t16090
MaKaVeLiTheDoNn (SB): BB = 20.8, t16643
3vb0 (BB): BB = 78.4, t62746
Kiki10 (UTG): BB = 27.0, t21623
Cherman9 (UTG+1): BB = 40.4, t32308
foo__ (MP1): BB = 23.8, t19018
Oleg_J10 (MP2): BB = 30.2, t24195
Pre Flop: (t2000) MaKaVeLiTheDoNn is SB with A A
2 folds, foo__ raises to t2100, 3 folds, MaKaVeLiTheDoNn calls t1700, 1 fold
Flop: (t5800) A 6 K (2 players)
MaKaVeLiTheDoNn bets t2400, foo__ calls t2400
Turn: (t10600) 3 (2 players)
MaKaVeLiTheDoNn checks, foo__ bets t14418 all in, MaKaVeLiTheDoNn calls t12043 all in
River: (t34686) 8 (2 players – 2 are all in)
I mean, donk betting here is just brilliant, from his perspective, AKo is 3betting pre, AQo is 3betting pre, possibly even AJo/ATo shoving pre with table dynamics. AA,KK?! sure they MIGHT flat pre but why/how would those hands lead? And the most fun part was letting my yellow timebank bar slide half way down the middle before i checked the turn n he insta shipped and im SURE he was almost positive i was folding.
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