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January 5, 2015
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Early in MTT
Blinds are 25/50
My stack: 5000
V stack: 12000
V Notes: V is a late 20’s African American guy who plays a decent TAGgy game post-flop but a bit splashy pre-flop. He does play his semi-bluffs aggressively and does have the capability of bluffing here and there.
V limps in MP and so do 2 others. I raise to 200 on BTN with A
6. Asian lady calls in BB and she is a bad player (straight forward and nitty). V calls. Other 2 fold.
Pot=750
Flop: JQ2
Asian lady checks. V checks and I bet 500. Asian lady folds. V raises to 1250. I call.
POT= 3250
Turn: A
V bets 1250. I call.
POT=5750 (I have about 2000 left)
River: J
V bets 1250. Us?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Gross spot. I shove the flop. I guess river is a crying call? I dunno, sometimes I think I pay off too much in these spots. Big odds, but you only beat a bluff, and it’s hard for me to see him betting river like this as a bluff.
June 2, 2013
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wager9 said
… He does play his semi-bluffs aggressively …
For your read this reraise otf is probably a draw, str8 or FD, 22 or QJ maybe, I don´t see it hapenning with QQ or JJ to limp and check raise flop.
Also with 3 limpers in front, if I am raising here would be more like 300, but I like limping pre flop, you have position to play, and if you hit a flush there is more chances to GII with more players in. Be carefull on pair boards tow 
February 20, 2015
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Agree with almofadinhas de carne here. Your raises have to be more than 4X because of the limpers. My initial thought was to flat here because you have position, depending on how aggressive the BB is. But then I wonder what you balance your button-raising range with if not shitty suited aces 🙂 Perhaps suited connectors instead?
On the flop you c-bet 2/3 pot. If you bet something closer to 300 it makes it easier to flat a check-raise. The bigger sizing makes the c/r bigger, and now you’re sort of forced to shove when you only have 1 overcard to a wetter board. I would be happier to do this with AQs on a Js6s2x flop because now I have 2 overcards.
As played, shove the turn. The ace is more likely to help you than V because he showed strength on the flop. (Only KT has passed you, but now you’re ahead of KQ, KJ, QT, JT. But but those types of hands probably don’t c/r. I need help here understanding the right play.)
I would fold the river because I still have 40 bigs left, and the jack means more hands are ahead of me. I’m chopping with some aces, but that’s about it. I block spades and don’t expect T9 to play this way.
January 5, 2015
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Foucault said
Gross spot. I shove the flop. I guess river is a crying call? I dunno, sometimes I think I pay off too much in these spots. Big odds, but you only beat a bluff, and it’s hard for me to see him betting river like this as a bluff.
Yeah I think shoving the flop is likely best. I did a lot of math on this hand last night and it looks the most +EV if I shove. But this is assuming I have at least 20% FE on flop. There is a chance that V is never folding here. The good news with that is that a decent amount of the hands he is “never folding” are worse spade draws than mine and/ or combo draws of some sort. I can’t imaging being less than 40% vs his range and am probably closer to 50% which further bolsters the SHOVE FLOP argument.
Playing it a smidge passive and just taking the “good odds” he is giving me (+ the implied ones as well) is also +EV but not as much as shoving, again based on some of the amth and assumptions I made about his hand and range of doing this.
As played, I really hated the river spot and called as I felt I had a little showdown value and I had a sense that maybe he was trying to run a bluff and just did not do it with big bets as he didn’t know where he was at or something.
January 5, 2015
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joelshitshow said
Agree with almofadinhas de carne here. Your raises have to be more than 4X because of the limpers. My initial thought was to flat here because you have position, depending on how aggressive the BB is. But then I wonder what you balance your button-raising range with if not shitty suited aces 🙂 Perhaps suited connectors instead?On the flop you c-bet 2/3 pot. If you bet something closer to 300 it makes it easier to flat a check-raise. The bigger sizing makes the c/r bigger, and now you’re sort of forced to shove when you only have 1 overcard to a wetter board. I would be happier to do this with AQs on a Js6s2x flop because now I have 2 overcards.
As played, shove the turn. The ace is more likely to help you than V because he showed strength on the flop. (Only KT has passed you, but now you’re ahead of KQ, KJ, QT, JT. But but those types of hands probably don’t c/r. I need help here understanding the right play.)
I would fold the river because I still have 40 bigs left, and the jack means more hands are ahead of me. I’m chopping with some aces, but that’s about it. I block spades and don’t expect T9 to play this way.
This is a good analysis. And I agree one of the mistakes I made was raising too little pre-flop. I am not a big limper mostly for a few reasons (especially in LP):
1. I am never limping with strong hands
2. I am in position
3. I have a hand that could very well be ahead right now or against small PP that will leave if they don’t set up.
4. None of them are very tricky pre-flop so I am not worried about monsters
5. If my hand hits a good draw I want to win a bigger amount
June 2, 2013
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joelshitshow said
…
As played, shove the turn. The ace is more likely to help you than V because he showed strength on the flop. (Only KT has passed you, but now you’re ahead of KQ, KJ, QT, JT. But but those types of hands probably don’t c/r. I need help here understanding the right play.)
…
I don´t know if shove turn is a good idea, if V is bluffing, he will fold, if he has Q or a J probably fold too, hero just improved, give V chance to keep barreling. The J OTT is a bad one I think, but most of the cards will be good for hero is Ace ott is good, also the flush is great.
December 30, 2015
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almofadinhas said
joelshitshow said
…
As played, shove the turn. The ace is more likely to help you than V because he showed strength on the flop. (Only KT has passed you, but now you’re ahead of KQ, KJ, QT, JT. But but those types of hands probably don’t c/r. I need help here understanding the right play.)
…I don´t know if shove turn is a good idea, if V is bluffing, he will fold, if he has Q or a J probably fold too, hero just improved, give V chance to keep barreling. …
I was going to say the same. I can’t see a turn shove getting called by worse or getting better to fold. With the show-down value of top pair I’m not sure it is worth trying to realize fold equity by turning TPWK in to a flush-draw-semi-bluff.
The way you describe V though…what is he limping with that also hits the flop? 22? 9Ts? maybe Q2s (other suit, obviously)? The flop hits our range so hard and we block the nut flush, but I suppose V has some combo draws with the flush still.
Once we call the flop c/r we have a lot of strong Qs (AQ/KQ/QJ/QTs). So for V to continue…V’s line is just so strong! I can’t imagine what V is barreling with except 22 or 9Ts. I feel like the J is a blank and hits us more than V, especially with the J being the suited card on the flop. If the J was the off-suit card there might be more J-high flush draws in V’s range…not sure what other J…unless V had QJ…but does he limp QJ?
This might be a case of thinking-long-thinking-wrong. Maybe it is just best to err on the side of believing V’s strong line and folding river. I can’t imagine anything we beat betting on the river at all. Even if V had a flush draw we sure don’t look like we are folding.
The only hand I can think of in his pre-flop range that takes this line is 22 or Q2s. That is just so narrow. Who knows, maybe he picked this hand to “make a move” on the flop with A2 and got really lucky on the turn, then didn’t notice the counterfeit river or got confused and clicked some buttons to look as strong as possible (that is a big what-if to build a calling scenario though)…just seems like something weird is going on here or we are way behind. Maybe V played a weak Q too strong, tried to rep the A, got called again, and then tossed in a weird blocking bet on the river to stop us from bluffing bigger.
So weird. In game I have no idea which way I would have gone, but after this post I fold. Now I really want to know the results!
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Definitely like shoving flop. Some % of the time you can get it in versus weaker flush draws or KT which is awesome, plus you have fold equity and a ton of real equity. Giving ourselves the chance to see both turn and river here whenever we do get called is really useful too – the fact we might have to fold turn really hurts our overall EV.
On turn, I don’t think you can do much except call – shoving turn would be a huge punt, you only ever get it in when behind and your flush draw is worth less than it was on the flop. KT got there too, so some % of villain’s flop bluffing range now has you crushed. You are still ahead of weaker flush draws, though, and you also beat T9, so you have enough equity to call even with only 2k behind.
River is a pretty bad card, it does block hands like QJ but that’s all it blocks, villain can still have KT or 22 and I would imagine if they were bluffing here they would likely try to put us under maximum pressure by shoving all-in for 2k. It’s awkward to call turn/fold river but I think it’s fine in this spot, I imagine people don’t bet this sizing as a bluff very often. Worth remembering that if you’re always calling river after you call turn, you give villain no incentive to bluff river after bluffing turn.
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