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September 24, 2013
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Hi,
2nd post here. Hope I have gotten it all right in terms of posting rules – let me know if not.
Hand taken from Sunday Million. We are well in the money, less than 100 left. Would like some input on the line taken in this hand.
READS
I had been at the table for 11 hands prior to this hand. Have no previous history with this player.
Of the 11 hands Villain had been active i 4 of theese:
- Reshoving an UTG minraise from BB
- Completed one time from SB, then folded to cbet
- Minraised from hijack and calling BB reraise. Folded to BB cbet on the flop.
- One EP raise + cbet (took the pot down)
Villain had seen me play one pot. Completing preflop to MP raise, and reraise flop to take it down.
HAND
Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1200 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
SB: BB = 21.9, t263096
BB: BB = 13.9, t167302
UTG: BB = 20.5, t245966
UTG+1: BB = 13.0, t156306
Hero (UTG+2): BB = 60.1, t720919
MP1: BB = 118.6, t1422626
MP2: BB = 25.1, t301054
CO: BB = 24.7, t295812
BTN: BB = 21.4, t257172
Pre Flop: (t28800) Hero is UTG+2 with A
J
2 folds, Hero raises to t24000, 4 folds, SB calls t18000, 1 fold
Flop: (t70800) T
8 Q (2 players)
ACTION
Preflop: Unopened to me, AJs is a must raise in my book. Would you have done anything differently? (minraising seems pretty standard here). If he shoves I fold. If he reraises, I'll probably call if not too large a bet. Not really considering a 4bet shove.
Due to the limited number hands, I didn't have a solid range to put him on. But anyway, given his activity, I'd say he probably flat preflop with about 30% of hands, and reraising with JJ+ and AK, leaving his range at: TT-22,AQs-A2s,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,AQo-A7o,A5o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o.
Your thoughts so far? BTW, played this one without a HUD. Do you think it affects decisions?
BR and any comments much appreciated,
coldcall27
December 28, 2012
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Whilst he's been active over the 11 hands we have on him, it's 11 hands so I think we have to be a little careful with our inferences from this small sample.
I'm not convinced we can put him on a 30% calling range from the SB – this would obviously be way too loose on his part, but this assumption feels a tad crude.
We may infer that he is flatting more than he probably should.
Minus the 9 or K for a straight, I'm Cbetting with the backdoor nut flush draw and a J blocker to his QJ and JT hands (which I'd expect to form part of a typical Villain SB flatting range). Given that we think he flats too much, he'll probably fold flop too much / we can put a lot of pressure on a lot of his (too weak) range on later streets. However, I think I want to check behind here and evaluate the turn, thinking about it.
September 24, 2013
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Hey Gsmyth5, thanks for your reply. Definately agree it's hard to infer anything from only 11 hands, but hey, it's sometimes the situation we are facing, which demands our best judgment, right? 
If 30% calling range is too wide, what would be more correct in your opinion?
Will post future action in the hand later, but like your thoughts so far.
December 28, 2012
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No probem re. replying! 🙂
I think we'd need more of a read to put say K5s, K9o, weaker Aces, unsuited one gappers etc. in his range with any great confidence.
Hopefully some far better players than myself will reply and help iron this out, but I'd expect to see suited broadways, pocket pairs (not that I necessary like this), the odd monster perhaps. If he's too loose as we suspect maybe we can be confident in putting in some unsuited broadways in there too.
I don't really see too much that he should be flatting with from the SB with ~22BBs, so I think he's making a big mistake if your read is anywhere near close. As I said, I think he'll therefore fold too many flops, which makes a small Cbet attractive a lot of the time, I guess. In this case I'd check back the flop IP because our Ace high may be good anyway and there are a lot of good turns for us. Given that he is shallow we can put a lot of pressure on him over the next two streets anyway if he checks to us on the turn, particularly at this stage of a major.
September 24, 2013
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OK, I agree that the average player in this spot would have a narrower range, but the tendencies from the last 11 hands from this player seemed to me at the time, as he wanted to play high varianse poker.
Anyway, flop action goes as follows:
He checks, and I bet 28.789 – below half pot. For the same reasons as you mentioned initially. I expect to take down the pot the majority of times here. But in retrospect I believe I should have called. Villain then instashoves. What do we think of his range now? Should we call?
December 28, 2012
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He's going to have a lot of pair plus draw type hands, two pair hands (I doubt he has sets, but maybe), flush draws – it's just so likely he has hit some part of that board.
I really hate bet folding our equity here, hence I check flop and evaluate turn. I guess now it's a stove question but without looking at the numbers in any detail I think it's a call.
February 20, 2013
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I prefer to skip this cbet, and jam over a turn lead on many turn cards. Some small turn leads on certain cards could be flatted as well. This flop really only misses his setmines, and villain has shown himself to be very active.
As played, fold now.
11 hand sample with that much action is enough for me to justify calling with this hand if he 3b jams pre, fwiw.
30% SB flatting range seems high for even this guy- I’d guess 20-25% and would exclude the top 8% of hands since he would likely 3b.
May 20, 2013
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It feels like the SB had a plan here. The BB is probably folding (he knows this better than you?) and thus he can flat with a bit pair for value. If so, he got a perfect check-shove flop for his stack size. I see KK played this way more than I would expect. I am folding here (and would fold AT here also). AQ would be a sigh and a tank, but probably a reluctant call.
September 24, 2013
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Thank you guys for replying.
@Gmyth5: I'm with you regarding Villain's range on the flop. He'll probaby not do this with air most times, but again we might need to factor in some complete bluffs given his laggy image. But I believe he will often turn over some sort of showdown value here, or at least a good draw – potentially with blockers to my hand. This fits with the range previously discussed.
@andinista: In hindsight, and as stated above, I kinda regret I didn't check behind. I believe this would have been the correct line to take. Exactly which hands do you see him reraise with preflop in this spot? I think maybe top 8% is too wide, but I'm unsure…
@Itcolombo: I agree that we sometimes see a big pair flat in this spot, with the intention to re-shove the flop. But I don't think this time is one of them. I'm more inclined to think that he's aware of this dynamic, that he has a perfect re-shove stack, and so doing this with a lot wider range than a monster. Given his rather laggy image from the last orbit of hands, I think he also knows, that I'd have given him some action with a reraise preflop. As I originally said, I wouldn't fold to a small/standard reraise pre.
If we put the Villain on about 20% of hands, that all have some sort of showdown or draw potential, this could be his range, right? TT-88,AQs-A8s,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,AQo-A8o,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+ – in this scenario I'm counting out other suits than clubs for his lower AX hands.
Running theese numbers, gives us 45,28% to win for calling 38% of the pot, and then we need to call.
RESULT
I ended up folding the hand, and never saw his holdings. I think my reasons were:
1) I had to be behind, and didn't have time to run the exact numbers. In the situation I thought I was more behind than when doing the analysis now.
2) Instead of making a close call, I think I opted for the wimpy stack preservation strategy. At this point I was in the top 20, and wanted a stack to threaten other players when coming closer to bigger payouts.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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as i see it…
as pointed out by others, i think assuming 30% range on an 11 hand sample where he happened to play 4 pots is a bit outlandish. consider starting somewhere in the baseline 25% range and work from here, based on more solid assumptions with more history.
when considering our cbet decision:
perks of cbetting = we have double gutter, A-high, backdoor hearts. we will likely bet/bet/jam a lot of run outs and expect to win a bunch vs weaker-tighter players
minuses to cbetting = this scenario. an aggro villain will ch/j pair+jack type hands (QJ and JT comes to mind), KJ, prob Q a few Qx, and front door flush draws; shutting us out of our equity.
i like andinista's idea of jamming over some leads on the turn, perhaps even getting trickier by raising to an amount where we are def calling off. we could also call, then jam over some rivers as well, as the size of the pot would allow us enough wiggle room (assuming standardish bet sizing on villains part). anything to make his life tough out of position here.
one other thing about not cbetting that i think we are all missing—nothing really terri-bad happens to us by checking. if stabbing the flop is going to work here, its probably going to work on the turn if/when checked to again. additionally, we'll have a free shot at drawing to 8 straight outs, plus potentially 3 A outs, and 7/45 heart combos for backdoor flush on the turn (two of which are included in our straight outs). a little less than half the time (if my combinatorics arent that rusty, and my Ace out assumption is valid), we will pick up something on the turn. for this reason especially, i prefer checking back flop against opponents we perceive to be loose-aggressive (something you heavily implied in your post), because it would be a pretty big sin to get ch/r off our hand.
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