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September 24, 2013
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Hey guys,
Please give me your thoughts on this one.
READS
Villain is a topranked reg. Not much action from in this tourney before this hand.
Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t15/t30 Blinds – 9 players –
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
CO: t3073 102.43 BBs
BTN: t1505 50.17 BBs
SB: t2935 97.83 BBs
BB: t2740 91.33 BBs
UTG: t2435 81.17 BBs
UTG+1: t2830 94.33 BBs
UTG+2: t5377 179.23 BBs
MP1: t2985 99.50 BBs
Hero (MP2): t3120 104 BBs
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is
MP2 with K
K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t60, 2 folds,
Hero raises to t150,
4
folds, UTG+1 calls t90
Flop: (t345) 6
J 3 (2 players)
UTG+1
checks, Hero bets t172,
UTG+1 calls t172
Turn: (t689) T (2 players)
UTG+1
checks, Hero bets t344,
UTG+1 raises to t1040,
HERO?
Will post rest of the hand after your comments.
Much appreciated 
January 15, 2013
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Any idea what his read might be on YOU? Does he think that you will only 3 bet premiums this early, and that he can get you to committ all of your chips when he flops a set? Or conversely, does he think you are such a nit that he can move you off of a premium pair this early with zip and pip?
Sorry to answer a question with a question, but if villian is a top-ranked reg I believe information like this is critical.
September 24, 2013
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NP 🙂 I agree that it's important information.
From this tourney he couldn't have had many reads, other than I did play tight up to this point. He joined the table app. 10 hands before this one, where I didn't play a hand. I would be surprised if his read on my holdings were at either end of the scale you're mentioning.
July 6, 2014
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Hey, I think of course a set is comfortably in his range, but I also think hands which picked up equity on the turn make this play alot, especially with 100bb stacks – so maybe K
9, K
Q, suited 89s etc.
I favour a draw over a set so I think I am jamming here, and maybe getting called by a jack 
April 26, 2013
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Wow, difficult spot. I see him doing this with a lot of semi bluffs here. Without many reads on him I would jam over his raise here, he could do that with sets some times, but often enough he should turn over AT or some of the other semi-draws.
On that super-wet turn card I would make a larger turn-bet, something like 499 maybe. Not sure if this is a better play, though. (?)
January 15, 2013
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Not so sure about A-10 — wouldn' t he just raise flop? And unless he's a doofus, K-9 flatting a 3 bet at 15/30 OOP doesn't seem like a likely holding, either. And is he really floating K-Q on that flop?
I think hands like J-J, 10-10, 6-6, 3-3 and even J-10 are far more likely than the holdings decribed above. This early, with the fact pattern described, I am inclined to just fold and live to fight at a blind level where a) I am not guessing and (b) it matters more. If I had a solid read on the villian, or I believe he has one on me, or both, I might be inclined to play it differently, but I think I am just nit-folding here.
December 28, 2012
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I would puke fold as per Mike's post above but I'd begrudgingly acknowledge that this may well be the reason he's a top reg.!
September 24, 2013
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Thank you for input. Here are my own thoughts so far:
Preflop
I don't think the action doesn't really tell us too much. I'd expect him to call the 3bet with most of his opening range when we are this deep. In his range we should of course expect to see some funky hands (primarily suited connectors, one gappers etc), as well as pairs and AK and sometimes AQ. In this case I'd expect him to reraise with KK+, while maybe flatting QQ and below.
Flop
His call on the flop is still pretty much in line with his opening range. I expect him to call with a draw, a set and a big overpair (probably aces – QQ would often be a reraise on the flop I guess). I think we can comfortably disregard KQ of diamonds as suggested, since I hold K of diamonds 🙂
Turn
Since he reraises me, I'd expect that he would now more often than not have a strong hand. I don't expect him to be willing to play a big pot OOP on a draw heavy board, unless he would have a strong read on me, which I didn't expect him to have. Only a few times I think we could expect to see a complete bluff, but given his position, only the
second level of the tournament etc, I don’t expect him to make a big play with nothing. Given his abilities, he will find way better spots later to gain chips.
In this case I guess a set (probably around 50% of times), an overpair (few times) or a big draw (around 50% of times) would be the most likely.
ACTION TURN
I guess our hand is still too strong to fold? In this case I opted to call his reraise. I wasn't comfortable getting it all in at this point. Also given my reads, I wanted to see the river and then evaluate. If the river blanked, I expect him to check
his missed draws most times, if he’s still comfortable with his hand, I’d expect him to valuebet, to prevent me from checking behind.
Turn: (t689) T (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t344,
UTG+1 raises to t1040, Hero calls t696
Action River
River: (t2769) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t1468 all in, Hero folds
Can't really see what I'm beating at this point, thus I fold. Your thoughts?
TYVM!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I fold the turn. There are a few important things I'm not seeing in the analysis in this thread:
1. Simulations and equity. It's not enough to say “he could have a draw or a set, it's probably a draw, I shove.” Your equity depends a lot on the ratio of sets to draws in his range, and without actually looking at what draws make sense for him it's hard to just guess at this. Is K9s in his opening range? What about T7s? Would he 4-bet or call AQs preflop? Would he call AdQd on the flop? Would he checkraise it on the turn? Also I don't think it's trivial to decide that shoving is better than calling against a range of sets and draws. Yes, this is kind of a lot of work, but it's how you will get better at poker.
2. Analysis of Hero's range. This is the main reason I fold. I think that KK is one of the less good candidates for defending against this c/r that Hero would play this way. Hero ought to have TT, JJ, and some good draws of his own in his range, all of which will play better against this raise than KK. If you aren't folding KK here, what are you folding?
“I'd expect him to call the 3bet with most of his opening range when we are this deep.”
Sounds like an argument for a larger 3bet…
September 5, 2013
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Do we really want to 3b TT-QQ pre? Do we want to cap our range vs a top reg (AA-KK)? So in other words, do we want to have a 3b range at all vs a UTG+1 topreg?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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pckrrr said:
Do we really want to 3b TT-QQ pre? Do we want to cap our range vs a top reg (AA-KK)? So in other words, do we want to have a 3b range at all vs a UTG+1 topreg?
Yes, no, yes. Unfortunately just adding TT-QQ to your 3b range doesn't do a lot to uncap it on most boards. Suited Aces and suited connectors are a big help for that purpose.
September 5, 2013
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I know we have to balance, but imo flatting TT-QQ pre IP vs UTG1 > 3betting this deep, certainly vs a top tier reg who is going to put us in alot of difficult situations postflop.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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pckrrr said:
I know we have to balance, but imo flatting TT-QQ pre IP vs UTG1 > 3betting this deep, certainly vs a top tier reg who is going to put us in alot of difficult situations postflop.
Three-betting these hands really isn't about balance, it's about value, protecting your equity, and improving your position. You're the one who has position, you should be putting him in difficult spots!
September 5, 2013
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I should elaborate my thought process a bit further. I don’t want to balance with these combo’s, I just think these combo’s (TT-QQ) are bad candidates to value 3b vs a UTG+1 open early in a tourney. Theoretically UTG+1 open ranges should be tight, especially in a regfilled tourney. I believe this should tighten up hero’s value 3b range, because we want to get in only a couple of combo’s (KK, AA). I don’t really want to 5b GII these combo’s vs his 4b range and also don’t want to flat a 4b and stack of multiple barrels vs this range, unless we have specific reads which alters our pre(post)flop strategy. ( for example high utg open % and low/f to 3b%).
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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ZakLawson said:
Hey, I think of course a set is comfortably in his range, but I also think hands which picked up equity on the turn make this play alot, especially with 100bb stacks – so maybe K
I favour a draw over a set so I think I am jamming here, and maybe getting called by a jack
I dont think a jack is going to be in his range too often unless it is JJ. Plus, I don't think most top ranked regs will get just a dry jack in against a 3bettor for stacks at this stage of a $162. So, I would have to disagree with your last point about a jack.
I think if I'm calling turn, I'm auto-calling river. If you're not gonna fold, I believe shove all in turn > call turn/call river >> call turn/fold river
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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pckrrr said:
I should elaborate my thought process a bit further. I don’t want to balance with these combo’s, I just think these combo’s (TT-QQ) are bad candidates to value 3b vs a UTG+1 open early in a tourney. Theoretically UTG+1 open ranges should be tight, especially in a regfilled tourney. I believe this should tighten up hero’s value 3b range, because we want to get in only a couple of combo’s (KK, AA). I don’t really want to 5b GII these combo’s vs his 4b range and also don’t want to flat a 4b and stack of multiple barrels vs this range, unless we have specific reads which alters our pre(post)flop strategy. ( for example high utg open % and low/f to 3b%).
But you ultimately concluded that you just shouldn't 3b at all, which is not an ideal outcome. Against a really tight player that's fine, but a lot of good players are not open folding A5s or T8s here, and against them 3betting a range that includes at least QQ (let's not act like it's the same as TT) is a good idea. Not every hand you 3bet to 5bb has to be one you're going to play for 100bb all in pre. Some hands, like AQo, play pretty well as 3b-folds even though it's a “value 3bet” in the sense that I expect to be ahead of his calling range. Others, like QQ and AQs, play well as 3b-calls. I'd more seriously consider not having a 5bet range than not having a 3bet range.
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