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(1 votes) 
February 20, 2013
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Inspired by Brokos bluffing vids I watched yesterday, I take a minibet turn/overbet river line to rep AK and K9 on a drawy board. Is this the right idea Andrew, or should I reserve the move for spots where villain has fewer 2 pair combos? How's turn sizing?
Merge, $55 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players Poker Tools by CardRunners - http://www.cardrunners.com/ Wedgie1 (UTG+1): 4,620 (7.7 bb) Roy0yster (UTG+2): 38,009 (63.3 bb) Hero (MP1): 16,331 (27.2 bb) ottoclem (MP2): 5,262 (8.8 bb) cadiebug (MP3): 6,930 (11.6 bb) KingsNutz (CO): 12,930 (21.6 bb) garallin (SB): 28,104 (46.8 bb) soonerzorba (BB): 5,244 (8.7 bb) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3s 3h 2 folds, Hero raises to 1,200, 2 folds, KingsNutz calls 1,200, garallin folds, soonerzorba calls 600 Flop: (4,380) Td 4h Qh (3 players) soonerzorba checks, Hero checks, KingsNutz checks Turn: (4,380) Jc (3 players) soonerzorba checks, Hero bets 1,490, KingsNutz calls 1,490, soonerzorba folds River: (7,360) 5d (2 players) Hero bets 13,581 and is all-in, KingsNutz folds
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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I'm not sure that Andrew would say this is a good hand to have in your bluffing range (I could be wrong).
On the other hand, it seems like villain is capped and pretty wide. He can't really have Qx because he checked the flop in position, and two pair plus probably raises the turn. You certainly have nut hands in your range. Even though this river jam has to work almost 2/3 of the time, it's not going to be easy for him to call.
October 25, 2013
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im not sure if i like this or not, i think if called you are almost always beat. That being said by checking you are allowing him the chance to put you to a tough decision which you take away by jamming. However i think that villian could easily have a lot of 2 pair/ top pair combos in his range aswell as straight that got there on the turn i dont think that with his stack he should be caling the turn with a view to folding river so i personally wouldnt shove but i would like to see what some of the better players think?
September 29, 2012
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No, this is different from the siutation he mentioned in his series. In the series he mentioned that a players range is capped when they only call a small bet on the turn, however what is different about this hand is that KingsNutz has a player still left to act.
If KingsNutz has a monster hand, he has two choices here, to call and hope the third player comes along, giving him more value opportunities for the river, or raise hoping your hand is strong, which it does not appear to be, or risk losing both players.
Also, remember what he mentioned, make a plan. What are the best hands you are hoping to fold out with this bet. What is your target range here? Is it realistic his range is made up of mostly that hand or weaker? Is it realistic he will fold out your target hand here?
February 20, 2013
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Indeed. It would have to be like a 4 bluffing spot to justify using this small pair as a bluffing hand, right? All of the 2 pair combos may mean this is a pass.
My gut says it works more than often enough to be profitable though, except against really good villains.
Against sick hand reader, its seems like a good spot to overjam straights on the river.
April 15, 2014
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I think this is probably a profitable shove. There are a few additional considerations IMO:
-If you check and he bets busted flush draws/kx/9x/ax hands, you're almost certainly folding 3s. Jamming removes them from his range
-Your line does look pretty FoS. He could call you down with two pair/sets if he thinks you're shoving a busted draw a decent % of the time. Would you really bet small/overbet shove when he's shown so little strength?
-Of the hands he could call with, AK/JJ would quite likely 3bet pre. Obv JJ may still fold here.
I gave the villain a fairly wide check flop/call turn/fold river value range (i.e. hands beating you) of 77-99, AJ/AT, KJ/KT, J9/T9 (88 combos) vs a check/call/call range of JJ/TT, AK, 98, K9 and some JT. That totals 56 combos, although 6 are JJ/TT which may fold and probably wouldn't flat such a drawy turn, plus 16 AK combos which would raise pre a significant proportion of the time. On top of that, there are all the K9 and 98s (32) which would be more likely to raise turn with a FD showing than the 1 pair/weak 2 pair combos, so I think you can revise the 56 down to about 30-40 as played.
As a result, it's roughly 90:40 in combo terms, so a profitable shove. Add in the fact that there may be some weak Q hands which I've left out, and the added value of driving out his successful bluffs, and I think it's a good spot. The only danger would be doing this against regs who will pick up on it if you're not balanced.
February 20, 2013
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Awesome post NutflushPete!
I completely agree with your assessment, but hadn't taken the time to count out the combos. I also hadn't considered the small benefit of folding out busted draws that bluff us off our pair.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Points for trying new things! You're right that a hand with 0 equity is a little dicey for betting into two people on the turn, but once you get a good outcome there (one caller, blank river), I definitely like the river shove.
“Even though this river jam has to work almost 2/3 of the time”
He's actually jamming more like 10K into 7300, Villain is a bit shorter than Hero. I do think Hero would be better off betting a bit more on the turn and jamming closer to pot on river. This is more in keeping with what you (should) actually do with nut hands and also means you win a little more when he folds to the river shove.
“i think if called you are almost always beat”
That's what makes it a bluff.
” i think that villian could easily have a lot of 2 pair/ top pair combos in his range aswell as straight that got there on the turn “
It's not just about what he could have, it's about how often will he have those hands? And will he call with them? Some others have made good arguments for why many of those stronger hands would bet flop or raise turn.
“If KingsNutz has a monster hand, he has two choices here, to call and hope the third player comes along, giving him more value opportunities for the river”
Some people are more reluctant to slowplay with a player still to act, because they worry about letting that guy draw for cheap.
Nice hand andinista!
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