A A A

Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Late stages, (JJ) in BB facing big …

Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes)

Late stages, (JJ) in BB facing big preflop all in from other chipleader. Does ICM come into play?

derSchwartz

Sunday Major

Members

Forum Posts: 258

Member Since:
November 4, 2013

Offline

October 27, 2014 - 12:17 am

Evening,

Here is a simple spot that may be worth a glace.

We are ITM and in the final two tables of an 11$ turbo MTT. I have a pretty aggressive image, not too hyper loose or tight. I share the chiplead with the villain in this hand, map1977, an aggro but seemingly predictable player who is chatting excitedly. After a small n=43, he plays 42/34, open limping 8%, 3betting 7%.

Merge Network $1K Gtd – [Turbo, Deep] (79511685-1) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500.00/t5000.00 Blinds + t500.00 – 9 players – View hand 2599718
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

john3744 (CO): BB = 12.2, t60839
JamesDitt (BtN): BB = 9.5, t47558
buttondown (SB): BB = 9.4, t46894
Hero (BB): BB = 19.1, t95626
BMitchell85 (UTG): BB = 13.2, t66147
BngRps (UTG+1): BB = 11.3, t56505
map1977 (MP1): BB = 18.9, t94464
freetacos4all (MP2): BB = 8.9, t44688
IBleedTeal (MP3): BB = 11.0, t54864

Pre Flop: (t12000) Hero is with J of clubs J of spades
2 folds, map1977 raises to t93964 all in, 5 folds, action on Hero.

That's a big bet considering the stage we're in and our stacks. It seems like a scared bet. I felt comfortable eliminating AA and KK, so I put him on 22-QQ, A2s+, A7o+, KJs+ and KQo. Clearly based on this range I am ahead.

My question is, does the big stack vs big stack dynamic make folding a consideration for ICM reasons or for any other reason? I have no evidence that he wouldn't play KK or AA that way – I just found it unlikely.

I called and he showed A8o .. but I want to be sure that I didn't just get lucky to find the bottom of his range and I want to be sure I didn't make an ICM mistake.

Thanks fellas. Keep crushing.

IDontLookLikeTO

Guest

Guests

October 27, 2014 - 2:19 am

Its really close. ICM probably dictates that you don't subject yourself to that variance..especially if you feel like you can outplay the competition. However because of the turbo aspect and the relative closeness of all stack sizes at this stage, your chiplead may be subject to other much less profitable spots later on. Plus felting the co-chipleader gives you a significantly better chance of shipping the whole tourney. Again its close but given how far you probably are ahead of his range and everything I just mentioned, I'd probably call as well.

hawkeyeK9

Guest

Guests

October 27, 2014 - 10:25 am

I don't think its an ICM mistake at all here. Its a call for sure imo.

NeverAA

High Stakes Shark

Members

Forum Posts: 164

Member Since:
August 4, 2014

Offline

October 28, 2014 - 10:16 am

I dont think its about him playing AA KK the same way with such a short stack, its a matter of how likely your hand is beaten by better. Its very likely you maybe facing good cards, but he will be pushing any pair here which you dominate. He may not be pushing premium pairs. The worst you will get out of this is a coinflip in my opinion. I think it would be profitable to call.

OneTime1Time

Sunday Major

Members

Forum Posts: 236

Member Since:
November 4, 2013

Offline

October 28, 2014 - 3:42 pm

I'm not sure I would ever have a case for folding here. His play looks weak enough I wouldn't put him with a pair above TT, or better than AJ. He is going to want to induce with anything better, and with his stats, he should be getting shoved on lots. It's likely his line here is to just steal the blinds/antes, while forcing the short stacks to be on the top of their range to call him. You are the only player he really has to worry about, and thankfully you are on top of your range.

Something of note – while 43 hands is a small sample, it's inditctive enough when a player is 42/34 in a turbo to get an idea of what he's up to. Unless he has been rolling over big hands, he's opening really wide – and a turbo is the kind of tournament where you are going to be able to see what he has been playing with. Unless everyone has been just folding to him, in which case he's abusing a bunch of nits and you should be 3 betting him all day long. Keep in mind that most players are not going to get thousands of hands for sample sizes, and the ones you do get that many on are usually good players who are very good at adjusting gears – so use the info you do have, and find ways to gleam out what is going on with this person.

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
75 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)