I ran an equity calc and have about 50% against this range I constructed. WDYT? I felt these are the likely “made” or drawing hands based on preflop second-to-act-limp and leading the flop:

77-88, 55, 33, 3s5s, 3s6s, As3s, As5s, As7s, 7s5s, 7s6s, As9s, AsTs, Ks3s, Ks5s, Ks6s, Ks7s, Ks9s, KsTs, Qs3s, Qs5s, Qs6s, Qs7s, Qs9s, QsTs, 65s, 63s, 53s, 57s, 78o

(Interesting PT4 lets me enter a range with explicit suits, but in the end the equity ended up pretty much the same. That seems counter-intuitive.)

Now here is something very interesting. I removed 55 and 33 (which, after some more thought, are basically bluffs with so many left to act) and my equity dropped to 43.5%!

I’m not sure how to add in fold equity, but I think it would be low…maybe something like 10%?

This is feeling worse and worse.

I would love to hear more thoughts on preflop as well. I have a feeling I’m looking at a pretty big leak. How would you construct a defending range that is weighted by immediate pot odds? I’m starting to think I have been ignoring the negative implied odds post-flop if I don’t simply fold or hit hard. 

Awesome stuff. I’m going to run some more hands through this thinking.

I’m definitely going to tighten up my defends a TON and see how it goes.

While the range is wide, and I agree your examples should be removed, I find people with a large stack, on a rush, tend to limp anything remotely connected at micro-stakes. That said it is probably better to be conservative, right? This gets me just 38% equity: 77-88, As3s, As5s, As7s, 7s6s, As9s, AsTs, Ks9s, KsTs, Qs9s, QsTs, 65s, 9sTs, JsQs, KsJs

I’m not running through it this deep in-game. I definitely added some hands when sitting there with PT’s calc that I wouldn’t have considered in-game. I’m more thinking in chunks of ranges, so my thinking stopped at “he could have suited connectors and AXs for some combo-draws, but probably more suited-A-broadway, a few over-pairs below TT and a couple rare sets. Ship-it!”…I’m looking to fill in some in-game thinking between those two sentences. In reality I’m trying to train myself to think in quantities (weighting) of these groups and try and recall some sort of equity thumbnail…if that makes sense. I think I’ve gone from too tight to being too loose now and need to dial it back. Still, considering I wasn’t thinking of equity at all 2 months ago, it’s all going in the right direction.

I love this: “The fact that you got a well above average flop and still aren’t sure you can profitably stack off is a good example of why this may not be a call preflop”. I like having a rational question to ask myself, or routine, when confronted with various situations. It helps me add good habits or get my head straight real quick so I can make a better decision. I’ve been asking myself a similar question to tighten up my EP range and remove some A-rags. One of BigDog’s live sweat videos has me scanning around the table these days looking at players and stack sizes saying “call, fold, call, shove, fold, call, shove” (simplifying) before deciding if I really want to open/call PF.

Result: H shoves. V has 77 …and sent me to the forums to post about it. My immediate thought was it was just unfortunate because I was playing and running really well – 50-125BB most of the tourney, top 4 in chips a few times – and could have found a better spot. That is why I wanted to question both the PF and flop decisions. Thank you all!