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Wanted to get your feedback guys. In the heat of battle, I definitely feel like I made some mistakes and should have analyzed it better.
Situation
2900 players, $5.50 MTT
~225 players remaining
Past the money bubble
Hand
Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – 2000/4000 Blinds + 500 – 9 players
MP1: 164740 M = 15.69
Hero (MP2): 170760 M = 16.26
CO: 72665 M = 6.92
BTN: 63832 M = 6.08
SB: 47088 M = 4.48
BB: 99518 M = 9.48
UTG: 93467 M = 8.90
UTG+1: 96982 M = 9.24
UTG+2: 29008 M = 2.76
Pre Flop: (10500) Hero is MP2 with T
Q
4 folds, Hero raises to 8525, 3 folds, BB raises to 24000, Hero calls 15475
Flop: (54500) J
K J (2 players)
BB bets 36000, Hero folds
Preflop Decision
I recall one of the MTT pros talking about “defending” his raises. In this spot, I decided to flat the 3-bet in position and see how the hand developed. Are the stacks (~14 effective BBs) too shallow for this type of play? Is it a 4-bet shove or fold preflop?
Flop Decision
Villain leads out for 2/3 pot on a paired and suited board. His stats are fairly TAG (VPIP:16/PR:12/AF:1). I'm open-ended but decide to fold.
Post-game Analysis
Preflop decision was questionable. However, on the flop, I feel like I should have considered the following and made a better decision:
1. What hands is he 3-betting preflop and then leading into this board? I should rule out AA, KK, QQ (I have one of them), any Jack. With his stack size,
I don't think he plays any of these hands that fast. I believe he either checks or bets 1/2 pot or less. Thus, it feels like some kind of middle pair that is confident betting first on a paired board.
2. Assuming that he has a middle pair or AQ/AT-types hands, I have 8 clean outs to the straight and maybe 4-6 more pair outs. If I get it in right here, I'm getting 2.5-1. Even against a tight range, my hand has 35-40% equity. I probably should have shoved over him on the draw with good odds and a chance to reach the top 10 in chips. If I lose, I still have 9.5 effective BBs.
3. The flop was very good for my hand. If I'm going to “defend” my preflop raise with a marginal holding, I probably need to go with it when the flop hits me. It may be a little dangerous drawing to a straight on the paired board, but I can't put him on trips or a full house.
i think im folding pre. actually i think this is a easy fold pre because of stack sizes btw. villian has solid stats pre so no need to get into tough situation. unless villian has a read on you, his range here is pretty narrow. AA, AK, AQh, dont think this villian is 3beting 10s and below. cbet is large, but i think its obv that villian has the “goods” and is clearly betting for value and protecting against FD and str8s….. as playd it looks to be an easy shove with good odds. but i think we can make a solid fold here as i think we dont have the outs it seems. an ace gives us the nut str8 but may boat him up if he holds AA. nice fold i think. biggest error came pre on the flat.
bjizz
June 22, 2010
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OMG this is to detailed for seven beers in the hole already. I will have to get back.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
October 6, 2010
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firstly, the effective stacks are 9bb (the BB's stack) not 16bb (your stack)
as a result, his raise preflop is effectively committing him to the hand i would think, looks pretty strong to me.
i would have folded preflop
I feel like I'm missing something here – the BB has the smaller of the two stacks so his is the effective stack, which is 25BBs, so not sure where the 14BBs and 9BBs have come from, possibly the Ms listed above? Versus a 25BB 3bet there's no way I'm ever doing anything with QTo here other than folding. I think the pre flop open is fine though. As played I fold the flop since villain has committed 60% of his stack to this hand and is not folding to a jam.
July 3, 2010
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The flat pre is pretty bad. Everyone at this table is so short. All you need to do is steal and steal some more. No need to get into a weird spot for a 50 bb pot. The original open is fine but just fold to his 3 bet.
mistergj said:
I feel like I'm missing something here – the BB has the smaller of the two stacks so his is the effective stack, which is 25BBs, so not sure where the 14BBs and 9BBs have come from, possibly the Ms listed above?
Sorry guys. I should have been clearer with the stack size descriptions. I'm accustomed to using the term “Effective Big Blinds” used by some of the SNG pros. It takes into account the blinds and antes.
I derive it by multiplying M by 50% and adding it back to M.
9.48 M * .50 = 4.74
9.48 + 4.74 = 14.22
In this case, the effective stacks were 99,518 (~25 Actual BBs, ~14 Effective BBs).
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