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KQo IP facing lead on River
almofadinhas
Playing The Prelims
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March 22, 2016 - 1:08 pm
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Hello!

Just got confused by Vilain betting on me on river here, not sure what his range is, what do you guys think?

IPoker – $2 FO – 100/200 – 9 handed

(15,000) UTG
(14,800) UTG1
(14,900) MP
(14,675) Hero MP1
(17,640) HJ
(14,475) CO
(24,675) BO
(14,925) SB
(20,450) BB
SB posts the small blind of 100
BB posts the big blind of 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to almofadinhas [Kd Qc]
03 fold,
Hero raise 400,
02 fold,
BO call,
01 fold,
BB call,

*** FLOP *** [Qd 8s 5c] (Total Pot: 1,300, 3 Players)
BB (20,250) check,
Hero (14,275) raise 650,
BO fold,
BB (20,250) call,

*** TURN *** [Qd 8s 5c] [Th] (Total Pot: 2,600, 2 Players)
BB (19,600) check,
Hero (13,625) raise 1300,
BB (19,600) call,

*** RIVER *** [Qd 8s 5c Th] [Kh] (Total Pot: 5,200, 2 Players)
BB (18,300) raise 2600,
Hero?

Thanks!

chaos
Midstakes Master
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March 22, 2016 - 2:50 pm
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I would just call. I think he can be playing a set or a worst two pair like that (can’t think of any other hand that makes sense as played). Given both of them make sense to me given his line I would just call on that spot.

navinbits
High Stakes Shark
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March 22, 2016 - 4:42 pm
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As played, you bet the turn not because you wanted villain to fold. You bet because you thought you had the best hand and wanted more value. If the board was dryer after the river, I would have even considered raising, but as played, I think this is a call on the river. 

Foucault

TPE Pro
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March 22, 2016 - 7:52 pm
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You’re right to be confused/concerned. Villain’s action before the river is highly suggestive of a marginal/bluff-catching sort of hand, but hands like that should prefer to check the river. The fact that he is suddenly taking an aggressive action suggests a more polarized range, and I don’t see him getting to the river with a lot of bluffs, which means he probably has a hand he thinks is strong.

The thing is, your hand is pretty darn strong, strong enough to beat some hands V might think are monsters. So folding is out of the question, and I’d seriously consider a small value raise. I think many people would have raised before now with a set. Although you block K8 and KT, those still seem like V’s most likely holdings to me.

Definitely fold river if Villain 3-bets, though.

FWIW, I’d bet a bit larger on turn, there are a lot of pair + gutter hands V could have that will call bigger bets, not to mention dominated Queens.

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