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With about 90 left in the 18:00 FTP 24+2 I have 29k with the blinds 1000/2000/250. That gives me 15BBs and an M of 6.
UTG with shoves with 26k.
I don't put him on a premium hand like QQ+ because I don't think he wants to kill the action. If he's pushing any small to mid-pair I'm 50-50. If it's a weak A then I'm 40-60.
At some point I need to win a 40-60 to go deep rather than just hang around and cash.
Do I call here or do I wait for a better spot?
June 22, 2010
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KQ is a decent hand when 15BB and lower. He may be shoving out of desperation. I don't like that he is UTG but he may feeling short stacked. I would consider: when the next blind level will go up and my position but I think I would call here. KQ plays well after the flop with the possible straights out there. I think your read is good small pair or Ax for sure. I need to get away from my nitty ways, I would call here.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Great post because this is a close one, and you can work this out using math once you assign him a range. Since we just released the MTT math vid and spreadsheet on monday, it's a good example to run through our methodology. I'll take a stab it for you below.
Ok so if you have 29k before posting blinds, that means you should have a stack of 26750 if you fold after posting your BB and ante.
Now, let's calculate what you have if you call and win and if you call and lose.
There should be 5250 in the pot before any action. Since you have him covered, effective stacks are 26k. So if you call and win you will have 57250. If you call and lose you will have 750.
Let's range him. According to what you say above, his range sounds like JJ-22,A2s+,KQs,A2o+. Would you agree with this? If so you have the following equity according to pokerstove
equity win tie pots won pots tied
a Shove
Stack
lose
Shove
FabulousTexan said:
With about 90 left in the 18:00 FTP 24+2 I have 29k with the blinds 1000/2000/250. That gives me 15BBs and an M of 6.
UTG with shoves with 26k.
I don't put him on a premium hand like QQ+ because I don't think he wants to kill the action. If he's pushing any small to mid-pair I'm 50-50. If it's a weak A then I'm 40-60.
At some point I need to win a 40-60 to go deep rather than just hang around and cash.
Do I call here or do I wait for a better spot?
I hate calling an UTG shove with KQ,
What u said that he wouldnt be shoving QQ+ is very wrong, anything but a shove from him is a bad play.
Personly I would wait for a better spot.
July 3, 2010
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alex007metal said:
FabulousTexan said:
With about 90 left in the 18:00 FTP 24+2 I have 29k with the blinds 1000/2000/250. That gives me 15BBs and an M of 6.
UTG with shoves with 26k.
I don't put him on a premium hand like QQ+ because I don't think he wants to kill the action. If he's pushing any small to mid-pair I'm 50-50. If it's a weak A then I'm 40-60.
At some point I need to win a 40-60 to go deep rather than just hang around and cash.
Do I call here or do I wait for a better spot?
I hate calling an UTG shove with KQ,
What u said that he wouldnt be shoving QQ+ is very wrong, anything but a shove from him is a bad play.Personly I would wait for a better spot.
Yeah – he has to shove his entire range of hands he chooses to play here so he isn't flipping his strong hands face up. Thinking he'll shove X % and then make a regular open with Z % is flawed thinking because good players don't do this.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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I agree with the posts above regarding the villain range but wanted to do the math using OPs assumptions. I am not sure he's shoving some of the weaker As here but I left them in.
If we add monsters in villains range the equity is:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.952% 56.17% 00.78% 996381832 13910344.00 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, A2o+ }
Hand 1: 43.048% 42.26% 00.78% 749744424 13910344.00 { KQs }
Which makes it more -EV to call
Pot 5250
Your Stack 26750
BB 2000
Effective Stack 26000
Win % 43.04%
Lose % 56.96%
If we call and win 57250
If we call and lose 750
EV of a Call 25068
EV of a Fold 26750
Net EV of a Shove -1682
EV as % of Stack -6.29%
EV as # of BBs -0.84
Risk of Busto 56.96%
Its good to see the math on this. Fwiw I also hate calling off with kq here all math aside.
great post….let's take it one step further…..what is the minimum hand you are calling with given the exact ranges used above…..I guess the question is what hand does the +ev start to kick in….thanks bigheaddave
I really appreciate all the insight and analysis.
Bottom line, it was a mistake but at least I turned it into a “teachable moment”. I hate it when that cliche is used in the NFL but in this setting it applies.
Villain shows A2o, spikes an A on the flop. I'm crippled. A few hands later I run A6 into AK, gg me.
Hey, could be worse. I could have had KK and then it really would have driven me crazy for a couple of hours.
I'm going to reitirate Big Dave's question.
What is your calling range here?
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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I did the math and it becomes a +EV call when you are getting 46.1% equity.
33 is getting 46.1% so that's the breakeven pair.
A9o is getting 47.7%
A8s is getting 47.5%
Every other hand is -EV.
That said, I wouldn't be calling at the bottom of this range just because of margin of error and the fact that you go busto over 50% of the time. I'd probably be looking at 66+ ATs+, AJo+, which all have about 54% equity. and are +EV by 2BB+
Even then your risk of busto is ~46% so it still might be a bit loose of a call.
For example, once we are at 99+ then our equity is 61.5%. That's a pretty huge difference and I'd never pass that up.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Another pretty interesting wrinkle here is that QQ is getting 69.2% equity vs villains range. I mean that's obv a call but you still bust ~30% of the time. Could be a final table bubble and you're fist pump calling and out 3/10 times.
Shows you how much it's better to be the shover than the caller.
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All this math makes my head hurt. For me I’m folding here most of the time. I would love if he flips over KJ or QJ but I can’t see that happening too often. Most likely it’s something like a small pair or AK,AQ,AJ maybe. That has you crushed. Maybe it’s unorthodox but I will wait till 7 to 9 bb’s to start looking for a 40-60. You get to see a few more hands before making a drastic mistake. Too many people nowadays are shoving 15 bb’s.
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