January 12, 2014
Live tournament, $550 buyin
50/300/600
4 relevent players:
BB (~100k) -been active, loose, passive and aggressive
UTG+1 (~30k) -just sat down
Hijack (33k) -hero, playing taggy, only shown down AA and 77
Cutoff (35k) – good tag
The hand:
KsQs
UTG+1 attempts to raise, but makes it too small so forced to limp.
Some folds,
I limp behind (dont want to get 4 bet on and hand flops well + position)
Cutoff limps, BB checks.
Flop (3,200) (Qc Tc Qd)
BB checks
UTG + 1 bets 1,100
Hero raises to 3,300
Cutoff folds
BB calls 3,300
UTG + 1 folds
Turn (10,900) (Qc Tc Qd) (8h)
BB checks
Hero bets 5,300 (~23k behind)
BB raises to 10,600 (~85k behind)
???
… And, hypothetically, if we called and the river was (5d) and BB bets 10k into 23k (~18k behind)
???
January 15, 2014
So the hands we are worried about are Q-10, 10-10, J-9, Q-8, 8-8, & A-Q, and we chop with K-Q. He could definitely have all of these since it was an unraised pot. I don't think he would cold call that raise on the flop with 8-8 so I'll eliminate that. We beat all other Queens, Tens, and other pairs. I don't know if this player is the kind that would raise the turn with a flush draw and then bet the river if he misses. I'll say that is a small part of his range.
So with that all being said I call his bet on the turn, even though the min-raise looks nutty. Then on the river, I feel that if he had the nuts then he would want to get more value than just $10k since he already raised to that amount on the turn. It almost seems blockerish. So I definitely call the river, leaving me with about 13BBs behind. If I am beat then I am beat, but I am not good enough to lay this hand down there.
Also, I would have preferred a raise pre-flop, if for no other reason to isolate with the original raiser/limper. The BB might have called anyways, but that's how I prefer to play.
March 8, 2013
I agree, call the turn and the river.
I like limping behind more than raising because I definitely do NOT want to isolate the guy who meant to raise UTG+1. His range is probably ahead of KQs and I would rather try to see a flop multiway hoping to hit two pair or better.
January 12, 2014
So I did take this line, call call.
But after I was rather disappointed that I was unable to lay the hand down on the turn. His turn raise is either high level play with fd (which I also thought was highly unlikely), J9 (less likely he cold calls the flop raise oop on a paired suited flop with this, except 1 combo of J9cc), or Q8/QT (most likely). I think his best line with QJ- would be to just call turn for pot control/reevaluate/possibly blocker bet river, but probably just check/call off my missed FDs or possibly get away, raising doesn’t make sense to me, unless he planned on check/calling off my missed FD on river? but he’s usually just paying off my better hands with this line.
I think a pro would have folded this. Am I just levelling myself into thinking this way or are pros regularly able to put this together mid hand and make these kinds of folds.
Another thing to consider maybe is that I can call the turn, then he would not be capable of bluffing river and he took his shot on the turn, that combined with the implied odds of me hitting a T/K on the river? But folding on anything else?
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