Well the maths is what interests me here. I don’t know the correct range but I’m gonna have a stab now at seeing if KK is a good shove. To do this there are going to have to be a whole bunch of assumptions.

1. What is my equity at the moment for getting a seat?

I said before that it is atleast 85% based on the assumption that I am more likely than any shorter stack to get a seat.

2. What are the calling ranges of other players?

If they are all playing perfectly then it should really be AA only or none at all for medium stacks and maybe QQ+ for short stacks. But factoring in that they are not playing perfectly I would expect calling ranges to be looser than that. I doubt anyone folds KK+ in reality, most call with QQ and maybe 30% (made up number) will call with AK or even AQ. There will also be the occassional terrible call with 99-JJ and AJ etc. For the maths I have given a calling range of QQ+, AKs, half the combos of AKo, half combos of AQs and quarter combos of AQo (2.5% of range). And to simplify the maths I am just assuming that all players have the same calling range here.

3. What is my equity if I get this jam through?

Stealing the blinds here gives me another orbit in comfort and I expect would increase my equity to something like 90%, or more.

4. What is my equity when called?

If I win the hand then effectively 100%, this could be the last hand. If I lose the hand then I bust to the bigger stacks obv and am short stack otherwise so guess my average equity when called is something like 15% (allowing for other stacks to bust when I am crippled or me doubling through once or twice).

OK, so to attempt the maths.

P(getting through) = 0.975^5 = 87%       (resulting equity is 0.9)

P(getting called) = 1 – 0.975^5 = 23%

P(winning when called) = 58%                 (resulting equity is 1)

P(losing when called) = 42%                    (resulting equity is 0.15)

So, my equity for the seat when I jam is:

(0.87 * 0.90) + (0.23 * 0.58 * 1) + (0.23 * 0.42 * 0.15) = 0.93 = 93%

My equity if I pass this spot is assumed to be 85%

Therefore jamming KK increases my equity for the seat.

If I run the same maths for QQ then I get a resulting equity of 89%

Therefore jamming QQ also increases my equity for the seat.

Running it for JJ and AK result in a decrease in equity.

Therefore (if the assumptions and maths are correct) the correct jamming range is QQ+

In reality all the assumptions create big error margins and so I haven't really narrowed the range, which could still be 99+ or no range at all.
Still, it was fun!