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(3 votes) 
March 30, 2016
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I was in the $3.30($5k) on PokerStars and very early in the tournament I get KK in the SB. I re-raise it over MP+1 and get two callers. Flop comes out low and I throw in a bet just to look like a cbet. Next to act shoves all in immediately with no hesitation.
PokerStars – $3+$0.30|20/40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+1: 81.88 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 77.25 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
CO: 149.5 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: 19.5 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 15)
Hero (SB): 84.25 BB
BB: 74.63 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 27)
UTG: 68.75 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
UTG+1: 81.88 BB (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 6.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
MP: 72.25 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
K
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 8.33 BB, fold, UTG calls 7.33 BB, MP+1 calls 4.83 BB
Flop: (25.98 BB, 3 players) 5
2
4
Hero bets 11.1 BB, UTG raises to 60.43 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero ?
My initial thought was that UTG flopped a set. After thinking for a bit I thought that UTG could have also shoved like this with a medium overpair. I could clearly beat a medium overpair but a set would have me dominated. What is the usual play here for this scenario? Should I just fold it assuming he has a set or should I call to beat some stupid play? Not sure what is more common for the villain to have.
June 11, 2012
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make it bigger pre OOP this deep. Maybe 11-13bb
on flop i have a hard time folding with SPR=2
November 18, 2014
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Could be a set or A3, but most likely, given the board is supper dry, this is possibly a lower pair, 77-QQ and probably more like 77-TT than QQ or JJ, unless you know the villain plays like that I don’t see why he would push his set to get you out of hands like AK or AQ…
If anything this looks more like precisely hands that he thinks are ahead but for which turn and river may be harmful like 77-TT. I’m always calling here and expect to be ahead most of the time. Wouldn’t be surprised if he had something like A5 either since he limped and then flatted a 8BB raise…
August 20, 2015
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How many hands have you got on the guy? If his VPIP is 14.8, what is he limp calling a reraise with from UTG? I don’t see a sub 15 VPIP player limp calling there with A3 or A5, and I don’t know if they play this way with medium pairs either. I see the old limp reraise with JJ+ here, but perhaps by the time it got to a 4 bet he was happier to see the flop with JJ or QQ and shove any flop with no A or K. AA and KK can also play like this to be ultra trappy, and still believe they are ahead there. But limp calling a 3 bet with AA or KK UTG instead of isolating is, I believe, extremely uncommon.
Likewise, I just don’t know if that player is playing 77, 88, 99 or TT this way. Maybe 66 as they have the overpair and the gutshot. But he’d have to put you on basically AK making that 3 bet to believe those hands are good here.
This is a tough spot, and it is SUCH a massive raise, that I think it is likely that there’s some fear from the villain, so 22, 33 or 44 become way less likely.
Would love to hear what some more experienced players think.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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3-bet bigger preflop, for sure. People aren’t 3.5x-folding in a $3 tourney. On flop, absolutely never folding this to anyone in a $3 tourney, you’ll see the odd 44 or something but people will also play 99 or A5 this way from time to time. If you’re folding KK you have literally nothing in your bet-calling range on this flop, since you’re not 3-betting hands that make sets on this board and KK is the same as AA here so you’re folding that too.
Call it off, laugh at whatever ridiculous hand villain ends up having, and fire up the next tournament if you happen to bust.
December 30, 2015
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I agree. On the turn, V’s range is probably 44-JJ, or a really bad PF call that you’ll never see coming. Here is your equity against that range, but honestly I’d have to weight the range towards 66-JJ so this is probably worse-case.
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44-JJ | 24.65% | 3,726,756 | 418,824 |
| KK | 75.35% | 11,821,140 | 418,824 |
Even if we add in a bunch of improbable junk including a stop-and-go AA or KK our hand is still a slight favorite against the range:
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22,44-AA,45,A3,67 | 47.17% | 17,158,140 | 1,188,732 |
| KK | 52.83% | 19,288,968 | 1,188,732 |
March 30, 2016
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Thank you all for your analysis. I wasn’t really sure on this one because I feel like I see a lot of sets in these spots (not sure if it is actually true). I did end up calling and villain had 22. I especially appreciate the equity calculations there. I am still not very good at putting people on a range. Now I know what to do next time.
December 30, 2015
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I have to admit I am definitely still wrestling with equity of ranges when stacks are deeper in tournaments. Part of me wants to say, “Do I really play for 60BB+ with just a pair?” Andrew, you make it sound pretty clear cut but say you are in a WSoP event and this comes up. Do you call? Do you let it go and look for better spots with 60BB still behind? Does it matter if it is live or not? Meaning, is the ability to just fire up another tourney an excuse to call wider?
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