April 26, 2013
Hi TPE!
We were sitting pretty deep, with 15 minute blind levels, 14 or so left in a stars.eu $8.80 1R1A.
I feel like it is a big mistake to call the river here. Ingame my thinking was, villain might try to level and rep the 8, but when thinking about it, this doesn't make much sense here (?). He should always have twopair+ when leading river I guess.
I would be interested to hear some reasoning how to play this spot and why folding is probably +EV.
Also I wonder if my turn sizing should be bigger as there are now straight and flush draws on the board.
PokerStars Hand #139176754230: Tournament #1287513643, $8.00+$0.80 USD Hold'em No Limit – Level XXXV (17500/35000/3500) – 2015/08/10 1:39:34 CET [2015/08/09 19:39:34 ET]
Table '1287513643 107' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: base30203 (2340402 in chips)
Seat 4: colobok68 (1007060 in chips)
Seat 5: olangotang (1629383 in chips)
Seat 6 (button): Hero (1665106 in chips)
Seat 7: LUFCBas (703390 in chips)
Seat 8: (BB) mrnino888 (2624486 in chips)
Seat 9: reymaniak (652388 in chips)
base30203: posts the ante 3500
colobok68: posts the ante 3500
olangotang: posts the ante 3500
Hero: posts the ante 3500
LUFCBas: posts the ante 3500
mrnino888: posts the ante 3500
reymaniak: posts the ante 3500
LUFCBas: posts small blind 17500
mrnino888: posts big blind 35000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [K K]
reymaniak: folds
base30203: folds
colobok68: folds
olangotang: folds
Hero: raises 41650 to 76650
LUFCBas: folds
mrnino888: calls 41650
*** FLOP *** [6 T 3] (195300)
mrnino888: checks
Hero: bets 89500
mrnino888: calls 89500
*** TURN *** [6 T 3] [7] (374300)
mrnino888: checks
Hero: bets 192500
mrnino888: calls 192500
*** RIVER *** [6 T 3 7] [9] (759300)
mrnino888: bets 379650
Hero: calls 379650
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mrnino888: shows [6h 8h] (a straight, Six to Ten)
Hero: mucks hand
mrnino888 collected 1518600 from pot
It's a bit weird in that if he had a legitimate hand, he would only donk lead river if he thought the 9c would prevent you from betting… If he thinks you have air, he should check to let you bluff at it. So he should be putting you on something that he can beat here, but would check the river. This is also seems larger than a blocker bet, but if it is one, he presumably can beat AT here. In the BB his ranger could be a simply 2 gapper, so I agree that 2 pair would be in his donk-lead play range here.
Unless I have a read that would trump what I said above, I would lean towards a fold.
I wonder aloud that if despite the 7s on the turn may have been better to check? any comments on that anyone?
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