nebel is 15/8 over 60 hands seems passive
MANTO is 26/21 16.7 3bet over 19 hands
chopperjaws is 13/0 over 8 hand
my stats are 16/14/10 3bet over 78 hands
sample sizes are insignificant but just putting them there.
Flatted pre because of the early position me and OR are in, is this ok or not? What about post flop? Give up after getting cold called by chopper? Definate fold after nebel ships right.
I mean if your ever going to fold KK on a J hi flop this is the action in which to do it. However I think I rejam here. Neb is effectively all in and you are committed to those chips. If chopper Jaws has a better hand then you here. Just load up another tourny and gl. Also for what its worth I 3 bet pre. Your so deep here I just think its better to try and get as many chips as possible in pre flop. If everyone folds pre great take it down your stack is good and move on. Interesting spot tho for sure.
i think i know what you’re thinking with the flat PF–that 3betting an EP opener with only ~30BB effective makes your hand look about what it is. and yes, it is going to look REALLY strong, but at the same time you have a tight/passive player opening UTG+1, so his range is really strong and he’s quite possibly not folding. and 3-betting gives you the chance to get him allin with hands like 99-QQ/AK/AQ that can find reasons to fold on bad flops.
and 3-betting a full 3x the original raise is unecessary. you can just make it like 1000-1200 and make it look like you’re leaving yourself room to fold.
as for the flop, i really don’t like the flop raise and then befuddlement when Neb 3-bets. you should try and always have a plan when you act. and raise/folding on this flop is not a good plan.
first of all, there are really no draws except exactly T9 and gutshots. and you want them calling gutshots. i’d probably just flat the flop and see what happens on the turn. that way you allow yourself to get value from a wider range of hands. MANTO, for example, could easily be leading out here with as little as 8x to see where he’s at. when you raise he just folds and you eliminate any chances of getting more chips from him on later streets.
sure you’re going to get 5-outed and such a little more often, but that’s easily counter-balanced by the extra value you get from hands on the turn and river that are just folding to your flop raise.
as played, it’s a really tough spot. choppers cold call of a bet and a raise is fairly alarming, and obviously neb has at the very least AJ, but quite possibly QQ/AA/JJ/88. like bigdog said, if ever you can find a fold with KK on this board it is after this action. i’m not 100% sure what i’d do. i’m going to think about it and report back.
My plan on the flop was to raise/get it in, but after the cold call and ship I really didn’t know where I was at. I think flatting flop is a good idea too and did think about that but figured MANTO or neb weren’t gonna be folding a J or over pair and chose to raise. I did end up getting it in but didn’t like it. Looking back it looks like a fold because I think chopper needs a big hand to be flatting there and neb comes over the top of that, I was putting neb on AJ,22,88,JJ,QQ,AA after he ships it.
I ran it thru pokerstove, you guys think these ranges are fairly accurate?
Board: Js 8d 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.596% 34.60% 00.00% 189315 0.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 38.323% 37.53% 00.80% 205355 4356.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 88, 22, AJs, AJo }
Hand 2: 27.081% 26.28% 00.80% 143836 4356.00 { 88, 22, AJs, KJs, AJo, KJo }
It’s +cEV to call nebs shove with those ranges assigned but that isn’t taking into account choppers action after I call/ISO shove, which I’m not really sure how to work out. Can anyone help?
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