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July 24, 2018
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You have just rebought and arrive at a table with 9 strangers. You are UTG and have KJo, with 33.3 BB. You look to your right at the BB and see a 60 something woman who looks like she will be tight, so you open to 2.5 BB (too big for this stack size, btw).
You get 3 callers in position, the SB calls. You are right about the BB, she folds.
Flop is KQJr. You are the effective stack, or close to it. What’s your plan? (You have 30.8BB, the pot is 14.5BB)
1. Bet/Call
2. Check/Shove
3. Shove
November 28, 2015
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I’d fold KJo preflop. I haven’t opened that hand from UTG since I became positionally aware. I find it very marginal post-flop, and a hand that I can get myself into trouble with.
This board is very coordinated, as It smashes calling ranges. What are the possible ranges we are likely up against? Let’s start with the monster hands. We have straights but there’s only 4 combos of each since T9o and ATo shouldn’t be in our opponents ranges (unless you have some read leading you to that conclusion): T9s (4), ATs(4). Sets: JJ(3). We can discount QQ and KK since those hands 3bet preflop. Two pair: KJ(2), QJ(2), KQ(2). Again, I’m discounting the off suit varieties of two pair because they usually get folded preflop vs an UTG open. Now let’s range the marginal combo hands. Top pair+ SD: KTs(2). We can discount off suit KT, and we block one of the kings. Middle pair+ draw: QT(3). Bottom pair+ draw: JT(2), AJ(6). Pairs below the board: 22-TT(54). Notice that TT is also a pair plus an OESD.
With this board, there really aren’t any Air hands that villain will continue. It connects well with all sorts of preflop calling ranges. So if money goes into the middle on the flop, players are likely to be committed to seeing the river since we have an SPR of 2.
So theres 13 combos that have us beat on the flop, 15 combos we beat, and 2 we chop with. Then there’s 4 combos of pocket TTs that will put money in on the flop and possibly the turn unimproved. And a few other combos of smaller pairs that may call a smallish bet on the flop like 99. Notice that we aren’t drawing dead against the 8 combos of straights either, as another king or jack will give us a full house. So if we do GII on the flop, we still have a chance to improve on the turn or river.
With all that in mind, I think we need to get our stack in the middle so it’s just a matter of what would be the best way to accomplish this? Perhaps bet like half pot on the flop and jam the turn, depending on runout. We could also check-raise the flop. Although I like that option less because we have to depend on our opponents to bet, which they might not.
December 17, 2019
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I dont mind preflop open (I prefere to make it 2-2.2x tho). KJo is better hand than like 76s here, when stacks get shallower.
On the flop. I would not exclude off combos of many hands that Maniackid mention.
It’s live game so people will play loose, hands like ATo/KT-KQo/QJo/QTo will be in theirs calling range imo ( not mention that SB need to call 2 bb to like 12bb, so he can have all T9o, off broadways and ATo ofc).
That said we aren’t very happy with our 2 paire here (even with SPR2). But we shouldn’t just rip 2xpot for sure.
We can check and see how action develop or make a very small Cbet like 2.5-3bb. And then we will have more maneuver and we can escape from this pot when it gets bet/raise/AI or similar.
July 24, 2018
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Thanks, Sun. Are you bet/folding to a shove? If you are called, and the turn is a blank, then what?
December 17, 2019
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Depends (form whom I get action) but in general I would fold because in such multiway pot people will play mostly honest.
They won’t be shiping like Tx or AJ vs your bet.
When called, on the turn we can bet small again or check ( depends if we are HU or 3way, and if we have position vs caller etc.).
It won’t be easy whatever line we choose but it should be higher EV than just shiping the flop.
July 24, 2018
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I think there will be a fair amount of KT/QT/JT that will jam the flop if we bet small. AJ, less so, and I’d assume there isn’t too much AQ/AK out there. I don’t like checking, because there are too many bad turn cards that will either put us behind or kill our action. I guess we are ‘drawing to a blank’, a card 8 or lower, where we can feel comfortable putting chips in the pot, but with an SPR of 2, flopping 2 pair here feels too strong yet vulnerable to play passively.
January 4, 2020
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What BI tourney is this? Assuming it’s a tourney with a lot of recreational players, I’d fold this pre as you’re often going to be going multi-way to a flip out of position and with a hand that’s easily dominated.
As played I’d Cbet this and probably just be looking to get it in, there’s enough KT/QT/JT/QJ that we beat. Again depending on the tourney, don’t rule out people having AK and AQ here also, even though they ought to be 3betting.
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