August 5, 2013
I played a live tournement yesturday and did pretty well. One major difference in this tournement is that there were NO antes. It changed the dynamic a lot as A)There was less pressure on the short stacks, and B) It made sqeezing and stealing a lot less valuable.
I made it to the final table, and we were down to 8 when the following hand occurred:
Blinds are 1000/2000, I'm on the SB.
UTG Limps, UTG + 1 Limps, MP folds, HJ Limps, CO folds, Button Limps.
I look down at KJd. I decide to just complete at this point.
Button min raises to T4000. Everyone who's in the hand calls, until it gets to me.
I have everyone covered except the CO who is a pretty big chip leader at this point. BB is a REALLY good player, CO is pretty good as well, everyone else in the hand is pretty loose passive, and don't really seem to be strong tournement players.
I have a total of about 18 BBs, and I decide to Jam here.
What are your thoughts on this decision?
In the end, everyone folded, except the CO, who woke up with pocket Aces!!! I don't like his slow play here, but in the end he got what he wanted…….Untill I went runner runner Straight! Ended up going out in 4th over all in the tourney, and the CO ended up making a come back and winning the tourney so…
Thanks in advance.
"Remember, play tight. Nothing less than 83 suited."
Play Good, Run Good.
September 29, 2012
I don't like the 3 bet with it here. With that many players in the pot, who already called a raise, you have almost 0% chance of this play getting through. Just consider the BB's spot. He alread raised the pot, so presumably, he has a strong hand. With all of those calls and your stuff, he has to call 14k to win 46k. What hands can he fold that he raised with? Everything is getting the right pot odds.
However, the first time through, I may have considered shoving over the limpers. That would completely depends on their limping ranges. In live games, sometimes you get weak players who will limp hands as strong as AK. You ahve to make sure you don't have one of them in before you decide to shove there.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
It's quite important to know the stack sizes for a final table hand. But absent a read that one of the limpers would have a strong range, this seems like a clear shove at the first opportunity. Without stack sizes it's hard to say how ICM would influence your decision, but absent that consideration this seems like a clear shove the second time as well.
You say BB is “REALLY” good but that's hard to imagine considering his raise, which there just isn't a hand where that's a remotely good play. Seems like he has a decent but not great hand, and your shove will almost certainly get it heads up with him with a lot of dead money in the pot.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Do you mean to say BB min raised? You already said that BTN limped you complete(from SB). My calculation is that thre are 11 BBs in the pot so folding is out the option for 1 BB more. You are risking 17 BBs(or is it 18 BB after the 1BB you put in?). So pot is going to be 45 if called of which you volunteered on your last decision 17 BBs. 17/45. So you need 37.8% equity WHEN called to break even, assuming you get called every time. If you get fold just 10% of the time you are gaining 11 BBs, or about 1.1 BBs(10% of 11) over longterm of shoving. The 90% of the time you need to lose less than 1B.1 BB so you need a return of at least 17 BB-(1.1*10/9) or 17BB – 1.22BB = 15.78BB or 15.78/45 = or 35.06% when called.
Do you have 35.1% when called?(Again assuming you only get folds 10%, which IMO from live play is a very safe assumption, probably closer to 30%).
PLug in some ranges to stove and see how tight he ahs to be for this to be bad(remmeber the tighter he is the more FE you probably have!).
What if he folds 30%? Then we gain 3.3 BB over the long term folds, so we can afford to lose at most 3.3BBs the 70% when we shove and get called, or 17-(10/7*3.3) = 17-4.7 = 12.3 BB return needed! = 12.3/45 and we only need 27.3% whcih is really easy!
All the above is assuming we only get called by 1 person at max.
I can do the original shove opportunity over the limps if there is interest but its the same general math but your FE is much much greater.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
September 29, 2012
I was surprised to see Cody’s response in support of a shove after the min-raise. First I have to disagree with him on one point. I don’t think he is ever getting fold equity. I play in a lot of these live daily MTTs and in a pot like this, I can guarantee you that if the BB don’t call which I almost never expect him to fold, someone will see a pocket pair in this group or an A and think they are good and go all in. However, for the most part, it is very rare to see someone in these live dailies to raise/fold.
OP described the BB as a good player and the cut off as a good player. He also said he has everyone covered, but the CO. Everyone else is a loose passive fish and don’t understand tournament dynamics. So BB has less than 18 BBs and is a good player and min-raised a 7 way pot and you are expecting him to have a weak holding that he will fold? Additionally, with 5 other loose passive fish with less than 18 BBs so it is probably that at least 3 of them are less than 10 BBs and if they see an A or pocket pair you expect them to fold as well.
Ok, but he does bring up another point I did miss my first time through. There is already 14 BBs in the pot and we have 18 left. So essentially, even if we get called by the one guy who has us covered, we are betting 18 to win 42 BBS, so we only need about 30% equity to break even. I would quickly add about 5% just to account for any ICM issues, so I would look for maybe 35% equity. KJs has 38% equity against a top 10% hand, which is roughly the range you would expect calls to come from. If the BB doesn’t call and someone who limped in calls, you can even take out the premium hands from the range and KJs is now getting 42% equity.
However, all this becomes complicated when you account that there is a higher than normal probability two of these fish call with hands that should probably be folded.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
One thing I think is worth highlighting, which Foucalt pointed out, is that the min riase here in BB makes it very very unlikely that BB is good(or at least by my definition). He could be a winning player at the table and know some basics, but its unlikely I would fear this player.
There are two beakdowns for his hand here, basically he has AA(maybe KK), or he has what faucalt mentioned, or marginal holdings. this is very easily profitable against marginal hands, and obviously negative if his range is only AA.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
22 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1