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TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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Only 25 hands on the villain so no major read other than what we can see in the HUD.
Is just calling the river incredibly nitty?
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) – 60/120 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BB): 12,268
UTG: 6,024 (VPIP: 17.43, PFR: 9.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.85, Hands: 375)
UTG+1: 12,148 (VPIP: 21.53, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 2,103)
MP: 9,860 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP+1: 10,120 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP+2: 10,000 (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 23)
CO: 3,614 (VPIP: 12.28, PFR: 7.02, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 57)
BTN: 14,195 (VPIP: 12.99, PFR: 9.21, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 78)
SB: 10,705 (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 17.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.79, Hands: 188)
SB posts SB 60, Hero posts BB 120
Pre Flop: (pot: 180) Hero has 8
8
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 300, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 180
Flop: (660, 2 players) 8
A 4
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 225, Hero raises to 775, MP+2 calls 550
Turn: (2,210, 2 players) K
Hero bets 1,105, MP+2 calls 1,105
River: (4,420, 2 players) K
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3,445, Hero ?
May 30, 2012
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pretty sure I would STUFF it in his face. if he has AA, KK or AK …….. another bullet is fine with me lol
July 24, 2018
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Would Villain slow play a made flush on the turn, then call a river check raise? That looks pretty much like your best case scenario; or perhaps he had 44 that would call as well. I think most of the time you got your value on the river, and check raising just won’t get called enough by worse hands. Villain can easily have the AA or AK here. That’s 9 combos that we lose to. We beat the 3 combos of 44, does villain have 6 flushes? Does he call with all of them? I think not.
Call me nitty too.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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yeah, i feel like ive shown a ton of strength on the flop and the turn, such that he would probably put in a raise on the turn if he had made his flush. I also have a tendency to see monsters under the bed in pots like this. 🙂
November 28, 2015
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This is an interesting hand.
3for3, what about KQ? What if V-has Qof spades? I think on the A high flop his C-bet makes sense. When KB check/raises here in most of my experiences it means a set. So if he has something like AQ or KQ I could see calling KB’s check/raise and re-assessing on the turn. AQ with q of spades gives him TopP with bkdr. fldr. and when the K of spades comes he now has draw to the nut flush which would def. make sense of why he calls KBs turn bet instead of raising. Then when KB checks the river, maybe he puts KB on something like AJ or AT and reads his check as weakness and trys to bet KB off his hand with a busted FLDR or TopPGood Kicker?
IDK would any of you guys raise the turn bet here with AA assuming KB has a set on the flop? I think I would at this point because it’s kinda obvious KB is representing a set by his flop CK/Raise and is not going anywhere. I’m thinking because he is just calling KB down on the flop and turn that he might just have something like AK, but more likely AQ, KQ, or even QJ with Q of spades J of spades.
The river is where things become the most interesting. I like KBs check here if he fully plans to just call down V- exercising a little pot control. I think V- might call a raise or bet on river with KQ, 44, and possibly QJ of spades. IMO Villain has something like KQ, QJ, AQ, or 44 with queen of spades. His river bet is almost pot, which seems kind of like he doesn’t want a call, IDK maybe after thinking about it and ranging KB to a set on the flop, V-s river bet sizing means either he knows KB has a boat and will call his larger bet and has the bigger boat, or he didn’t want KB to call and he had something like trip Ks or nut flush (QsJs) and might get KB to fold something like AJ or AQ.
More than likely I am way off here and V shows up with AK or even KK?
KB what is the result?
July 24, 2018
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Would KQ call a check raise? They would if they had flush draw, but that is impossible. I can buy AxQs as calling flop and turn, and maybe even betting river. But would he then call a river check raise? I don’t see that.
Would Villain raise the turn with AA? I don’t see that, as hero might easily have check raised flop with flush draw.
I agree, villain might call 44 or QxSS. But those seem to be the only hands that can get here and even think about calling a check raise (that we beat). I would give that about 5 combos. He has 9 combos of bigger boats. Maybe he raises some of those on the turn, but I kind of doubt that. More likely, he raises his nut flushes on the turn.
I guess Villain might get stubborn and call with some of his AQ, but that would be a pretty bad play IMO, especially as the population just doesn’t have enough bluffs for the line hero took.
Indeed, what is our bluffing range for the river check raise?
November 28, 2015
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Yeah I agree. I mean, even though KB already mentioned, he did take a really strong line on the flop, and continued on the turn. I still feel like the river pot bet was kinda big, unless he knows KB has some sort of full house and is never folding. Which would only conclude that Villain must be holding a monster.
I do see what you are saying 3for3. I dig it. Have you listened to the new podcast? I enjoyed it. It’s def. not the same as when Bigdog and Marc are on there but Clayton seems like a pretty genuine dude.
July 24, 2018
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New Podcast is set for tomorrow’s walk on the treadmill. I am poker podcast addict, I have several that are regular, including TPE.
November 28, 2015
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I like it, I like it. I gotta say, I am a huuuge fan of the TPE podcast, by far my number 1. I do enjoy chirp herm too.
February 8, 2017
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I think check-raising River is a bit too ambitious without a specific read that villain is relatively spewy or stubborn. I doubt there are enough value targets other than 44 against most players.
I don’t really like checking this river at all, I think a lot of the hands that we can get value from are going to check back fairly frequently, and I think that vastly outweighs the value we get from inducing bluffs. I would have a hard time bet-folding this river, so check-calling may save us some chips when beat, but I’d much rather pot control this river with a middling flush or similar rather than with a boat.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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results: I just called. he had a flush. probably missed a little value.
November 28, 2015
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I decided to look at this hand again, from the perspective of not knowing what Villain has.
So here, I am giving Villain a Standard OR range. We are getting an amazing price to call so I am almost wondering now if a 3-bet might be more value? IDK just yet, but I like where this thought is heading… Anyway,
KB , keep in mind, before last night (where I ranked up on TPE forum to “grinding micros” 
) I would have played this hand EXACTLY how you played it.
So pre, I like the call, and now I’m leaning towards a look at a 3-bet. I like the CK/R on the flop, LOVE the sizing. On the turn I like the 1/2 pot bet but after learning a little something from Andrew Brokos yesterday I am going to try to apply it here; I am leaning more towards a little bigger on sizing like something around 60-75%(1326-1658).
And a 75% river bet/call to his shove. Specifically, if the river hits any A,K,4, or 8 I think a shove would be the most EV play?
Even if you do bet 75% on turn and Villain shoves, “fist pump snap call” brah. If the river bricks like a 7
or something, you have to fold to just about any river bet.
“I also have a tendency to see monsters under the bed in pots like this.” When I first read this line I misinterpreted your meaning. Don’t ask me how. I know what you mean now!
What was Villains hand specifically? Something like QJ,JT,T9?
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