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JJ vs MP open-shove, weirdish (large) stacksizes in $11
Sen
Sunday Major
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June 4, 2014 - 11:07 am
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Hi TPE.

This is a hand from the midstage of a small field (135 players) tournament on fulltilt, $11 buyin. There are 35 left, 15 get paid, note that on fulltilt 1st is paid even more than on stars (28%). Play is soft and mostly passive. I feel pretty comfortable considering my stack size and my presumably edge on most players. Nonetheless blinds climb every 10 minutes and I wonder if I can give up a premium like jacks in this spot.

Important to note is, our villain had a stack that he should almost never open-shove with on a passive table like ours and was running a supper-nit like 7/6 over and 6% 3bet 46 hands at our table. Also note there is one bigstacks still left to act.

Here's the HH:

Full Tilt Poker Game #34292647627: $1,000 Guarantee (267594446), Table 12 – NL Hold'em – 200/400 Ante 50 – 16:37:31 CET – 2014/06/04 [10:37:31 ET – 2014/06/04]
Seat 1: HoyAK666 (20,162)
Seat 2: Mapyc9TawuT (10,796)
Seat 3: madifma22 (12,545)
Seat 4: Hero (16,742)
Seat 6: Dr_Mom1 (18,415)
Seat 7: ne2l_uk (7,810)
Seat 8: mikupoeg (5,240)
Seat 9: Haeselchen (3,556)
HoyAK666 antes 50
Mapyc9TawuT antes 50
madifma22 antes 50
RhargonT510 antes 50
Dr_Mom1 antes 50
ne2l_uk antes 50
mikupoeg antes 50
Haeselchen antes 50
Dr_Mom1 posts the small blind of 200
ne2l_uk posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jheart Jdiamond]
mikupoeg folds
Haeselchen folds
HoyAK666 folds
Mapyc9TawuT has 15 seconds left to act
Mapyc9TawuT raises to 10,746, and is all in
madifma22 folds
Hero ???

So: Fold or shove? Why?

 

PS: Any idea why the hand history converter doesn't work with full tilt hands, exportet from HEM2? “Invalid header” is the error message I always get.

Poking_Fun
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June 4, 2014 - 11:49 am
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Well, it is a big shove for sure (26bbs) but in my opinion is usually indicative of a medium-strong pair (88-JJ, possibly QQ) or a hand like AQ-AK.

I usually categorise these types of plays as someone not comfortable playing a medium strength pair or unpaired premium hand postflop out of position. Some players at these levels are scared of getting flat called and playing a flop due to their inexperience of similar situations.

Personally, I would go all-in as the big stack would have to have a huge hand to call you in this spot and I think you have plenty of equity versus the shovers range.

jonmon101
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June 6, 2014 - 2:20 am
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Yeah it’s weird, but I’m not folding.

Sen
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June 6, 2014 - 7:55 am
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Thanks, yeah exactly what I was thinking, Poker_Fun, looks like he has a decent hand (AJ+, 77+) that he feels uncomfortable playing post. He could hold AQ+ or QQ+ but this should only be a small part of his range, so I called. He showed a lovely Aheart8heart and my jacks held. That was nice. Still strange play. Would we call 99, TT here? AQo? AJs? Just wondering.

I think I would fold 99 and any AJ, everything better I would have a hard time not to reship. Suggestions?

Poking_Fun
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June 6, 2014 - 9:32 am
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Without looking specifically at a chart or running any numbers, I'm inclined to think that 99+, AQ+ is definitely a go. Then any adjustment higher / lower really boils down to what you know about your opponent.

For example, if this guy is as wide as A8s then I could see calling maybe 88+, AJ+ but probably not any worse due to players still to act behind. When I get time I will put the stacks into Holdem Resources to see what that tool suggests.

Sen
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June 6, 2014 - 9:55 am
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Yeah, but presuming that he ships that light with his nitty stats is a mistake in the long run, I suppose. Given edge on field and stacksizes I'd fold AJ and 88, maybe too nitty, though. Better hands he might not rip with his M > 11, so yeah, I see your point. Still, why take such a high variance spot with close hands like 88, AJ in a soft field?

theginger45

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June 14, 2014 - 6:41 am
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Ultimately what this comes down to is that it's very unlikely he would just open-shove here with a hand like QQ+, so once we eliminate those hands from his range, our equity vs his range jumps way up. I don't think we can ever fold JJ here considering the frequency that he has hands like 99/TT/AQ/AK. Seems like 99+ AQ+ is a reasonable calling range to me, although vs certain villains I think 88 could be fine too since they're more likely to be weighted towards smaller pairs here in some instances. The players left to act aren't massively relevant, incidentally, since they're probably very unlikely to call here with anything worse than QQ+ or AK, which means they're each folding >95% of the time.

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