I found this to be a really tough spot and would really like some feedback. I think it's okay to call flop and turn and then fold the river, but it just seems like I'm spewing a lot of chips (1/3 of my stack). Any thoughts? 5th hand with villain so no reads or stats at all.
Poker Stars $10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t10/t20 Blinds – 9 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
UTG+1: BB = 150.0, t3000
UTG+2: BB = 137.3, t2745
MP1: BB = 148.5, t2970
MP2: BB = 147.5, t2950
CO: BB = 144.3, t2885
hero (BTN): BB = 148.0, t2960
SB: BB = 163.8, t3275
BB: BB = 146.8, t2935
UTG: BB = 164.0, t3280
Pre Flop: (t30) hero is BTN with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t100, UTG+2 calls t100, 3 folds, hero calls t100, 2 folds
Flop: (t330) 6 5 3 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets t280, UTG+2 folds, hero calls t280
Turn: (t890) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t560, hero calls t560
River: (t2010) Q (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t2060 all in, hero???
This hand sucks because I think you played it fine and just have to fold river. He's barreling into 3 people on the flop after raising UTG and proceeds to bet all three streets with blinds at 10/20. It's a monster almost every time here. If he is bluffing in this spot you have to give him credit for doing so, because it just shouldn't happen at this point in the tournament.
On the turn, if you give villain the following range:
33+, AKc,AQc,AJc,A10c, KQc and add a few bluffs or random hands (5 combinaisons)
And also adjust for the fact that the UTG+1 raiser wont play most of his combinaisons of middle and lower pairs in such a way pre-flop (5xBB raise).
You have about a 40% equity to win the hand by the river.
You have to call 560 to win 1500 – so the pot odds are in your favor (1 to 3 when you only need 1 to 1.5) but considering the reverse implied odds that works against you, I think im folding the turn.
Its still early in the tourney, and at that stage, I like to play JJ mainly for his set value, and looking to take down some small-medium pots with his lone value as a pair, but not willing to give 1/5 of my stack on that turn bet.
This one just sucks on the river. I think I would fold. The villain barreling all the way along, plus the coordinated board screams to me that he is holding it. No sense paying him off on the river with the flush and straight (my guess is he has the straight) and the overcard (don't see him barreling two streets with a Qx type hand (unless it is AQ or QQ, but not particularly likely). I am not sure I call the turn, I think I just fold there and be grumpy about it.
In terms of pocket range, I do think its 33+
Thats is, if we do account that the UTG+1 player raising 5xBB in the first level of a 10$ tourney wont have 33 with the same frequency as QQ. There's also a need to adjust for the cards on board that reduces the number of possible combinaisons. In the equity calculation from the previous post, I only counted two combinations of the pairs 33-99 compared to 6 for the 1010-AA (1 for Jacks)
Could you explain why you wouldn't include small and medium pairs ?
Or maybe you meant that the range assign was too much pairs and not enough of other sorts of hands ?
Also, from the villain perspective, If we call the turn, our range is pretty much define to middle pockets (88,99,1010,JJ,QQ), 78s or a flush draw. If a non-flush card hit the river, he might very well value bet AA-KK-QQ against our range or even bluff a missed draw he had, putting us in another tough decision. So I dont think that the reverse implied odds are absent here and that he's gonna check most of his turn range on the river.
But, I mean, I usually play it just like mistergj did, but I also hate to spend so much chips in that spot, and thinking maybe the turn fold would be the best option.
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