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January 16, 2014
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I never played or studied SNGs seroiusly before, and I regret it everytime a tricky ICM spot. Any other stage I'm shipping it, but I don't know what the right play is here.
7 players (out of 1280) are left. Remaining places paid as flollows: 7-$338, 6-$466 5-$613 4-$845 3-$1172 2-$1573 1-$2143
Blinds are 12,500/25,000. I'm second in chips at 777,236. I min raise open to 50,000 with JJ in MP (button -2). Small blind had 153,000 (shortest stack) after posting and flats for 35,000 more. Big blind is chip leader with 994,074 after posting his blind, and he 3bets to 217,000. The total pot right now is 335,000 and 167,000 to call.
Reads – I don't remember the small blind but I don't think it matters since he can only call. The BB was the most aggressive one at the final table, but I've never seen him get out of line. His VPIP/PFR was something like 35/28, but the sample size would be under 100 hands. His 3b was in the single digits, even if it was higher I don't put any stock in that with such a small sample. I don't think he's bluffing ever (well rarely, this is Bovada). The range I put him on was AQ+ and 88+. At the time I thought he might make it smaller some of the time with KK and AA, but at the same time would flat 88 and 99 some of the time. One more thing, he was talking a lot of smack in the chat box. He got his chip lead maybe 10 hands prior with nut flush vs 2nd nut flush vs AA, and his smack talking became more aggressive.
Should I ship it? Call and fold to bad flops? Would folding and maintaining my #2 chip stack be out of the question?
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August 3, 2011
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I think your 4bet range is so narrow here and that you are 2nd in chips he may still fold. With his sizing you are probably right and can eliminate AA and KK most likely. He is making it that sizing with 66-1010 to avoid playing OOP with you and the rest you flip with minus QQ and he may fold AQ etc. Folding is not out of the question but to this sizing I really have a tough time believing he has a better hand. Along with your read/ limited stats seems like a go. I feel like he may have AK here and you lose a flip and are questioning the spot hehe but I may be wrong. If you had the best hand NH!
May 20, 2013
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When I am invovled in a hand like this, I'll start with the AK scenario. His 3 bet is now 25%+ of your entire stack. Is he creating a big pot setup or is he using your stack size to pressure you? You've played with this player now for a while? and he has not gotten out of line, nor should he with a large stack and 7 left. So now think ahead to the flop? What do you want to see? If he shoves 100% of all flops, are you comfortable calling any of them?
You are no longer in the “accumulation” phases of this MTT, you are in the “one false move” phase. So you go from 15 BB to 14BB. You are still second in chips. If you are playing for first only, perhaps you take the flip? He does this with 88+ so your pairs vs. pairs range is right smack in the middle of 88/99/TT or QQ/KK/AA.
But if YOU have 14BB (and the Big stack has 20 after this hand), those other stacks are going to either crash into each other or into the big stacks. You could practically fold to 4th.
There are lots of thoughts still swimming in my head, but in the end, I can find a fold here when I think I am better saving a confrontation with the Big Stack for 3 handed or when I have a monster hand. I dont want to go out 7th on JJ when I am sitting pretty. (I wish I knew the other stack sizes.)
January 16, 2014
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The hand history converter doesn't work with Bovada, so I'll just type it out
UTG 17.7 BB
UTG+1 27.4 BB
Hero (MP) 31.19 BB
CO 18.46 BB
BTN 11.12 BB
SB 6.75 BB
BB 40.86 BB
7 players post ante of .1 BB, SB post .05 BB, BB post 1 BB
Dealt to Hero: JcJd
fold, fold, Hero raised to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB raises to 8.7 BB
June 24, 2014
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I would go with it. He seems loose enough and I don’t like folding to duche-bags. So As Danny said a fold isn’t to unreasonable but I think that if we gii it wouldn’t be a mistake. Plus if we win man we really are in a position to take 1st.
January 16, 2014
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I don't really think I'm playing for first only. I remember thinking something like that the first couple final tables I've gotten to in big fields, and it just made me play like a retard. I do think I'm miles ahead in terms of skill than anyone at this table. Not that I think I'm that great, but they would be more likely to make that “one false move” more than me.
I didn't think of it at the time, but if I just called there's a good chance the SB calls with whatever he flatted my initial raise with. With him all in I think theres a chance I could check down if I'm good. The only problem with that is the SPR would be 1:1, and if he ships an 8,9, or T high flop I puke.
January 16, 2014
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My results are too juicy not to share. Mainly because I discounted AA and KK from his range I decide to shove. SB folds (he had K9o; seriously, wtf?) and BB calls with KK. I bink a jack, and go on to easily win the tournament (to give you an idea of just how easy the second hand of heads up the other player spazzes off his 26 bb stack on a 966 flop with 22).
Afterwards I became super agro with my chat meta-game trash talk. I told him to quit hating cause he got outplayed, then I told him I felt bad for him and offered to coach him at a discounted rate. I was relentless. I like to think I eventually broke him and forced him to turn his chat box off cause eventually he stopped responding. However when I was able to get the hand history and review his play (Bovada HH shows hole cards) I must say he made really good decisions before and after this hand. He let others spew off left and right and took good spots with the stack he had left, and finished 3rd.
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