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I have around 3500 left on the river. Villian is 39/17 agression 2% , 25 hands.…. all hands post rebuy hour.
Poker Stars $8.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t75/t150 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
take912 (CO): t13970 93.13 BBs
Athaniel86 (BTN): t5760 38.40 BBs
pornoglio02 (SB): t10022 66.81 BBs
nokia197827 (BB): t6655 44.37 BBs
€hooptasti€ (UTG): t3595 23.97 BBs
AJAX77777 (UTG+1): t5475 36.50 BBs
CHARLE1105 (UTG+2): t8175 54.50 BBs
Hero (MP1): t6658 44.39 BBs
rasclet (MP2): t6440 42.93 BBs
Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is MP1 with J
J
3 folds, Hero raises to t360, 3 folds, pornoglio02 calls t285, 1 fold
Flop: (t870) 6 T 4 (2 players)
pornoglio02 bets t300, Hero raises to t1035, pornoglio02 calls t735
Turn: (t2940) 4
(2 players)
pornoglio02 checks, Hero bets t1800, pornoglio02 calls t1800
River: (t6540) A (2 players)
pornoglio02 bets t6827 all in
With the villain numbers this looks like a busted flush draw to me- is it a pot sized jam on the river?
I think he is trying to represent AK-AQ at the end which makes no sense to me unless its A
K. with 22 hands the sample is still relatively good.
Do you happen to have the villain's aggression factor on Turn and River? I am going to venture a guess that it is low – if so we are definetly beat…
Are you trying to represent 4's with your TURN BET?
I would check the turn and see what villain does and re-assess…. because it looks like he is pretty passive.
as stated in my op i have 3500 left at the river , so over half pot but not by much.
as far as stats , 28 hands isn't all that much but he is most agressive on the river , with flop stat saying 37.5 / turn 16.7 and river 50…. i also agree this is a busted flush draw a lot of the time….
oh and on the turn im betting for value with the intentions of stacking off vs him.
2% over all agression isn't really passive , guys with less tan 1.5 over all agression is usually what i would consider passive.
Hey th1986,
A few points
1. Of course I can appreciate that 23 hands isn't all that much my point relative to any point in a tournament – I think the statistical significance of the total amount of hands is good enough to make valid assumptions about the villains range.
2. When I said he was passive I meant he called pre-flop and flop – so if he checks the TURN to us I am calling the jam because he can't rep that A its BS. Because if he has it he 3betting you on the flop to protect against the flush draw is he not?
3. When I asked for his aggression levels on the Turn and River it was because I do see a lot relatively high preflop aggressor be extremely passive on TURN and RIVER. If he were then I would assume I am beat but as you wrote he has been actually quite active on TURN and RIVER in the past –
in my mind screaming BUSTED FLUSH DRAW! in my opinion.
CALL EM STACK'EM F YOU FISH!! I HOPE THAT'S HOW IT ENDED ….. FOR YOU AT LEAST
thanks for the reply , i did call him , won't post or hint to results yet .
October 6, 2010
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tiger, you are right that this could be busted flush draw, but a hell of a lot of those are nut flush draws that now have us beat
is it nitty to check back turn here? although you are letting villain draw for free, its only 20% of the time his flush gets there, and i think if a heart peeled i would just fold, but would call just about every river except a heart or ace (Ace river is kinda tough)
with JJ here i think its a type of hand that we can only get 2 streets of value with instead of the full 3 streets.
you only really have a bluff catcher here, and a lot of villain's possible bluff range (nut flush draws) also got there, as did AT.
i would fold this river.
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