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Villian here had a very high VPIP and above average PFR. 3 Bet % about 7 for about 30 hands data.
Should I just be folding jacks here?
Full Tilt Poker $10 + $1 Knockout No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60/t120 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
ricebirds86 (SB): t7048 58.73 BBs
thefattestgirls (BB): t10020 83.50 BBs
chipserg (UTG): t4840 40.33 BBs
vipersrule (UTG+1): t8100 67.50 BBs
whodeyalltheway (UTG+2): t4150 34.58 BBs
A_Lucky_Card (MP1): t5695 47.46 BBs
jimbo4343 (MP2): t3392 28.27 BBs
Hawks113 (CO): t1000 8.33 BBs
Xvenger (BTN): t3490 29.08 BBs
Pre Flop: (t180) Xvenger is BTN with J
J
6 folds, Xvenger raises to t360, ricebirds86 raises to t5040, 1 fold, Xvenger calls t3130 all in
Flop: (t7100) 3 K
Q (2 players – 1 is all in)
Turn: (t7100) 6 (2 players – 1 is all in)
River: (t7100) K (2 players – 1 is all in)
I think you played it fine. You are way ahead of is shoving range SB versus BTN. I dont believe he would shove QQ+. So worst case you are flipping.
You look like a steale and his overshove dont look like it wants a call. So he could be shoving a wide range.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.934% 70.67% 00.27% 396879890 1512885.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 29.066% 28.80% 00.27% 161730052 1512885.00 { TT-22, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A5o+, K7o+, QTo+, JTo }
No way I would ever fold this preflop against this guy.
Just a small remark on preflop betsizing: from 30 BBs without ante I would not 3x, I would open raise 2.5x (300 in this case).
NH. You are way ahead most of the time and flipping some percentage of the time.
Given the villian's image and position, it looks like he's simply defending vs your “steal attempt”. Even if we tighten up his shoving range, your call is still +EV imo. His raise screams, “FU for trying to steal my blind! Btw, don't call!”
If this is results orientated and you lost vs AK, don't sweat it. Even if you lost vs 87hh, it's all good. Control what you can control.
are we maybe relying a bit on the data? a 7% 3-bet over 30 hands is really not signficant at all…
If you have other reads – this is a snap call, I'm just worried that we have a skewed image based on data that isn't complete.
Snap him off…flippin at worst and agree with Wein a 30 hand sample is way to small to rely on the data!
June 11, 2010
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Wein said:
are we maybe relying a bit on the data? a 7% 3-bet over 30 hands is really not signficant at all…
If you have other reads – this is a snap call, I'm just worried that we have a skewed image based on data that isn't complete.
I think this is the most important post in the entire section. You say he has a very high VPIP and above average PFR with a 7% 3bet and a very small sample size. You need to be very careful with a HUD and the information it presents and how you let it effect you. Think about the situation you are playing more than what the data says. You are opening from the button. As a small or BB I am going to 3bet the hell out of you because I think you are doing this super wide almost all the time. You happen to have a monster for the situation so I would snap him off all day long. Just a word of caution though, be careful with the HUD and how much emphasis you put on what it tells you, it has a nasty habit of making decisions harder than they really are.
30 hands is a small sample size. There are other HUD stats..the that tells you what he is doing vs. a steal in the SB…….
But by bet sizing…AK is what he is repping
June 11, 2010
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a10fouru said:
30 hands is a small sample size. There are other HUD stats..the that tells you what he is doing vs. a steal in the SB…….
But by bet sizing…AK is what he is repping
I think that is a pretty narrow ranging there given no information. You are in a BTN vs. Blind conflict, the ranges here are going to be way wider than just AK. I think a lot of players from the SB in this tourney will spaz shove against LP opens a lot thinking they are effectively defending. I would be really careful about ranging that specifically.
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