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(1 votes) 
July 3, 2013
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Please analyse / criticise my thought process…
1. In game my thought process was that original 3bettor wasn't folding, but that BB was probably set-mining and would snap fold, so I thought I'd jam and either pick up the pot (it was a substantial size – 153k) or ISO against the original 3bettor.
2. The reason I never put him on a monster is because I have odds to flat with any hand, so he ends up OOP against 2 people, one of which is a big stack… Is this thinking wrong? Is his flat quite bad, or is it ok / good?
3. Should I have flatted? Should I have made it like 110k and folded to the BB flatter – because he's only re-raising nuts after flatting? Or was what I did ok?
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Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t5000/t10000 Blinds + t1000 – 9 players – View hand 2251494
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: BB = 22.6, t226238
CO: BB = 23.9, t239388
BTN: BB = 12.0, t120469
SB: BB = 19.4, t193980
BB: BB = 62.1, t620952
UTG: BB = 15.6, t156091
UTG+1: BB = 28.3, t282701
UTG+2: BB = 4.5, t45475
Hero (MP1): BB = 55.0, t549680
Pre Flop: (t24000) Hero is MP1 with J
J
3 folds, Hero raises to t20000, MP2 raises to t60000, 3 folds, BB calls t50000, Hero raises to t548680 all in, 1 fold, BB calls t488680
Flop: (t1171360) 4 9 Q
(2 players – 1 is all in)
Turn: (t1171360) T (2 players – 1 is all in)
River: (t1171360) 5 (2 players – 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t1171360
BB shows Ad Ac (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows Jd Js (a pair of Jacks)
BB wins t1171360
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September 28, 2012
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The first glaring problem I have is you go from 6 BBs(the 3 bet)->55 BBs(the shove). Thats a huge jump, and your basically only ever getting called by better + AK.
Secondly the noly person at your table that has you covered just cold called. Whats your read on this player? If hes any good, hes not set mining, and his range is fairly nutty(his read on MP2 would have to be hes a fish, meaning MP2 wont pick up on this. He also probably doesnt think to highly of you.). If hes a fish then I would assume its unlikely hes trapping AA as people dont do that often(although does happen, doubt it happens deep in the million, youll see it at cash tables where they can rebuy if things go wrong), in fact QQ+ would probably just jam or something to get it in v MP2(him jamming here would be a interesting spot but probably a fold). So if he sa fiash, I would 4 bet to like 160k, which is commiting to MP2 and allows for an easy flop jam on favorable flops if MP2 flats OOP.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
August 23, 2012
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I saw this post on 2+2 as well. MP2's range for non-all-in 3betting off of 22bbs is fairly nutted. The sizing is fairly large so he is likely an inexperienced player with a range weighted towards QQ+, AK. ^^ If the BB is even remotely competent, he will not be flatting speculitive hands because of the stack depth and a player behind still to act. Even with AA, he may think luring you into squeezing or getting in trouble postflop is worth the risk of being outdrawn.
This spot is read dependent because it is not standard to cold call the 3b. I would jam over if he is a lose fish. Readless, I would call and play very cautiously postflop. . We are probably getting just good enough odds to set-mine against fairly nutted ranges. Maybe not because we may only stack MP2 a lot of the time when we hit a set. Probably not getting any money in without hitting a set because MP2 will likely not put any more money in the pot with just overs against two callers.
July 3, 2013
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CCuster 911 said: The first glaring problem I have is you go from 6 BBs(the 3 bet)->55 BBs(the shove). Thats a huge jump, and your basically only ever getting called by better + AK. Secondly the noly person at your table that has you covered just cold called. Whats your read on this player? If hes any good, hes not set mining, and his range is fairly nutty(his read on MP2 would have to be hes a fish, meaning MP2 wont pick up on this. He also probably doesnt think to highly of you.). If hes a fish then I would assume its unlikely hes trapping AA as people dont do that often(although does happen, doubt it happens deep in the million, youll see it at cash tables where they can rebuy if things go wrong), in fact QQ+ would probably just jam or something to get it in v MP2(him jamming here would be a interesting spot but probably a fold). So if he sa fiash, I would 4 bet to like 160k, which is commiting to MP2 and allows for an easy flop jam on favorable flops if MP2 flats OOP.
That's not really true, the pot is 14bb, so we're going from 14bb to 55bb. We're trying to ISO against the 19bb stack here, or take the pot right away, obviously not trying to gii against the big stack. Don't get me wrong, I think I made a mistake by jamming, but I don't think it's as horrible as you're making out.
Why is he not set mining if he is any good? He's getting 2.1/1 already, if he thinks I'm calling (which I would have to with pracically any hand, as I'm then getting 3.8/1) then he's getting 3.8/1 also… Why would he not set-mine getting those odds in a 3way pot against a big stack? He'd be a bad player not to. The 3bettor is a bad player, and the BB likely knows this, I have no stats/reads on the BB. If I was in his spot with AA i'd jam or 5bet every time, because I'd assume I'm certain to gii against the 3bettor and the pots already 100k, if he's lucky I also have a great hand and call.
July 3, 2013
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packallama said:
I saw this post on 2+2 as well. MP2's range for non-all-in 3betting off of 22bbs is fairly nutted. The sizing is fairly large so he is likely an inexperienced player with a range weighted towards QQ+, AK. ^^ If the BB is even remotely competent, he will not be flatting speculitive hands because of the stack depth and a player behind still to act. Even with AA, he may think luring you into squeezing or getting in trouble postflop is worth the risk of being outdrawn.
This spot is read dependent because it is not standard to cold call the 3b. I would jam over if he is a lose fish. Readless, I would call and play very cautiously postflop. . We are probably getting just good enough odds to set-mine against fairly nutted ranges. Maybe not because we may only stack MP2 a lot of the time when we hit a set. Probably not getting any money in without hitting a set because MP2 will likely not put any more money in the pot with just overs against two callers.
Thanks for your response, this makes a lot of sense, and I'm thinking flat was right.
I don't know if this changes anything, but the 3bettor was a big fish and the BB almost certainely knew this. No reads or stats on BB. Considering this, and considering my opening range is fairly wide, do you not think he set mines?
August 23, 2012
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I have seen players set-min in spots like this, but it is very rare and they have to be very loose. If that is the case then you should have already picked up that read over an orbit or two. Having a better read on what range MP2 3bs this large with makes all the difference in this hand. If you think that it is a strong range and the BB most likely knew this as well, then the CC looks even stronger than readless. If MP2 has a wide range for 3betting like this then the BB could CC with KK+ not only to trap you, but to trap MP2 as well if he thinks there is a reasonable chance he folds to a 4b.
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September 28, 2012
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ehhh7 said:
That's not really true, the pot is 14bb, so we're going from 14bb to 55bb. We're trying to ISO against the 19bb stack here, or take the pot right away, obviously not trying to gii against the big stack. Don't get me wrong, I think I made a mistake by jamming, but I don't think it's as horrible as you're making out.
Why is he not set mining if he is any good? He's getting 2.1/1 already, if he thinks I'm calling (which I would have to with pracically any hand, as I'm then getting 3.8/1) then he's getting 3.8/1 also… Why would he not set-mine getting those odds in a 3way pot against a big stack? He'd be a bad player not to. The 3bettor is a bad player, and the BB likely knows this, I have no stats/reads on the BB. If I was in his spot with AA i'd jam or 5bet every time, because I'd assume I'm certain to gii against the 3bettor and the pots already 100k, if he's lucky I also have a great hand and call.
You are mkaing a little msitake here, if you are going to speak in terms of pot, you msut do that for all numbers. You are right its 14 BBs in the middle, so when you shove the pot isnot now 55 BB thats your stack only. So the pot goes from 14 BB to effecitvely 67 BBs or so. But this isnt how we should veiw i. lets looka t the odds people are getting to call:
3 bettor: 1.5 BB antes/sb+2BB your raise+6 BBs his raise+6 BBs BTn cold call + 20 more BBs from you to put him all in
1.5+2+6+6+20 = 35.5BB and he has to call off 16 BB. So he is getting over 2:1. Which is fine, he isnt the person we are shoving out stack against.
Lets look at BB: If we assume the other guy folds we are looking at:
Your 55 BB+1.5 antes/sb+6 BB 3 bet + 6 BB his call= 68.5 and he has to call 49BB. He needs 49/(68.5+49) or 41.7% to call verus a range that is never bluffing. Lets face it, you dont have bluffs in your range. If we assume JJ is the worst of your range here, and throw in AK lets see how hands fare agaisnt this range:
AQs ~ 32.1%
<TT ~ 33.7%
JJ ~ 36.6%
AKo ~ 39.78%
AKs ~ 42.8%
QQ~ 47.4%
KK ~ 62.6%
AA~ 83.4%
So a good player can only really call
AKs,QQ+
However his range is probably mroe polarized than that as he probably isnt flattting QQ OOP or AK, so lets assume his calling range is 1/2 of KK( 3 combos) and all of AA(6 combos), so he has 9 combos calling us.
Now lets see what % of the time he has to call us(How low % wise) for this to be profitable:
If we shove and they both fold we pick up the 16 BBs in the middle. Our Stack after this hand is going to be about 690k(our stack +13.5BBs).
If we shove and BB calls(we are ignoring CO at this point, just seeing our play v BB) we have 18.723% eQuity. So lets say 19% of the time we are going have 1171k(1.171 mil) and 81% of the time we are going to have 0. .19 of 1171k is 222.5k
So we have:
690k – Folds
225k- Calls
225k/(690+225) = 24.5%.
So he has to call less than 24.5% of the time for this play to show profit assuming CO is folding.
So that means he has to have 3x as many non trpapy hands as trappy. If you think he ahs that, go for it I guess.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
February 3, 2013
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“Even with AA, he may think luring you into squeezing or getting in trouble postflop is worth the risk of being outdrawn.”
Same thinking. Id love it to have AA in this spot and just flat the loose 3bettor, hoping you go for a squeez.
When i see his cold call, I instantly think of a huge monster KK+. Im not sure, what he would do with AK in his situation. Probably 4bet, but depends on the player. If the BB guy was really new to the table, he has to be scared by this huge 3bet, so no way he would call here weak.
Like others, I think BB isnt calling any speculitive hands in this spot. Even a loose player or a “fish” would fold here all pockets like 22-TT. Its more often, that the UTG opener 4bet here or just shove, like HERO did. So Id never believe somebody with 60BBs would setmining here (mid/late-stage) after the UTG raise got 3x 3bet.
Sometimes I even lay down the JJ hand here because of such a cold call. If flops come T high, ur in big trouble with JJ here. But since you have position, Id call with JJ just to setmine on flop.
Call the 3bet preflop (looking for a set), and fold on THIS flop is best imo. If flop would be low, id call one bet and folding on a 2barrel.
May 6, 2013
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If the bb isn´t a total donk I would be very careful with my jacks here. Mp1 opens then mp2 3-bets and then a guy decides to still cold call on the BB with action left….looks exactly what it is….unless the player is a random fish, which I think is less likely since its rather late in the million.
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