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TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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a $2k live satty to main
Blinds are 1.5k/3k/(500a) i think, very soon to be 2k/4k
Near the stone seat bubble. We're guaranteed 5.8k after the next bust-out, then we all get Main Event seats ($10.2k) after that guy busts. I think it was like 59 left, 58th 5.8k, 1-57 $10.2k
Folds to CO, who shoves 36k. CO is a pretty weak 55-60 yo live player. He recently doubled and then doubled again in spots where Villain had to call with nearly any two.
Hero has 47-48k in sb with JJ. The BB does not cover original shove. There are a few micro stacks left at other tables, although the floor did a good job of preventing us from walking around and being able to tell exactly how many. Hero should?
April 26, 2013
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Fold. No need whatsoever to risk anything. You have a super healthy stack and should get your seat no matter what. I even believe KK might be a fold here. AA?
April 30, 2015
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Well, I think a call here isn’t too bad. You have a definite read that CO is a weak player and I am sure you crush his shoving range. Even if you lose or get coolered, you have a whole orbit before blinds get to you, before which at least one of the micro stacks might go broke. If it is for your tournament life, or against a tighter opponent, it is a definite fold though.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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Feels like a fold. We get the button next hand and should really have no problem folding in to the seat?
February 20, 2015
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Folding into a seat seems pretty easy. After another orbit (half an hour lol), you would still have 10bb. Even if you can’t see other tables, you KNOW there have to be microstacks left out of 50-odd people, just based on random distribution.
December 24, 2013
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I'm too lazy to do real math just yet, but I think the mistake of making a small negative $ev fold is probably heavily outweighed by the bad players remaining in the field making poor $ev calls later. Unless the average stack is very high, I don't know if I'd feel comfortable trying to hone villain's range down accurately enough for the exact situation, given the high propensity of cashing you have. In 10 hands, on 6 tables, the probability of huge icm errors taking place is just really high. I don't know how to quantify it, but I'd def be interested in hearing advocates for calls lines of reasoning. Do you think he's shoving ATo? 44? T9s?
22+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo v JJ
JJ has 63%… .63 x $9500ish + .37 x (4kish? idk whats the $ev of your stack if you lose? you have a lot of spots left after before youre paying large chunk of your stack again) idk, that numbers $7500 and i feel like if you fold you have 90%+ chance of getting a seat in your average live field. so a call would have to be greater than like 9k in EV to beat folding.
November 4, 2013
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This is a pretty easy fold. If we had 100k stack, it becomes a call. Inversely, if we have like 8bb this is a much more interesting spot where my gut says we have to call, but I'd have to work out some math on it.
Pretty sure I'd also fold QQ, but have to call with AA/KK. Our fold game is definitely in a better spot than a lot of other players left in the tournament, and as Jacob said, there will be a lot of huge ICM mistakes made by other players.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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Thanks all. In game, I actually called and lost to A9s.
Giving him a (tightened) range of {AA-55,AK-AT,KQ-KT,Ax9x,QxJx}, JJ is 61%. The very loosest range (shoving all pairs and broadways, some higher suited connectors) put JJ at 67%
In retrospect this felt like a fold, as we're nearly 100% to win 10.2k if we continue folding for the rest of our lives. If we win the pot 60-67% of the time, we still are nearly 100% to win a seat, but 33-40% of the time, we are risking a large marginal chance of busting before the $10k seat.
I still got the seat 
December 24, 2013
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MovesLikeDarvin said:
If we win the pot 60-67% of the time, we still are nearly 100% to win a seat, but 33-40% of the time, we are risking a large marginal chance of busting before the $10k seat.
I still got the seat
looks like we all came to the sameish conclusion. In game, I'd have trouble folding KK, but I think you want to fold that too. There are a lot of ace x in his range, which is going to be still something like 20-30% chance of losing the hand, which lowers your overall chances by a significant degree, whereas folding is like 99% x $10.2k
fun analysis
May 20, 2013
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I am getting up from the table (and getting dealt out if that is what it took) to look at other tables. I dont understand the prevention from walking around looking other than to keep the action going? I am folding KK here if there are 3+ micro stacks left.
December 24, 2013
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Colombo, it's my understanding that this kind of movement is heavily frowned upon by the floor, but I could be mistaken. I don't have a ton of live experience, but once in a massive field $350, when we played hand for hand on day 2, the floor pretty chastised anyone who got up and wasn't actively going somewhere (ie outside of the tournament area or to their seat) in order to prevent exactly this. While online, the stack distributions and even hands being played are information free for the taking. Live, however, to discourage stalling and muddy up bubble play, the floor takes measures to disallow this. You bring up an interesting point though. Should we even be at the table right now? When it takes one/two seats to go, and -$ev calls are going to take place frequently, are we really giving anything up by not being at the table to click fold?
November 4, 2013
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I've seen TD's penalize players for getting up during bubble time. It's very frowned upon during bubble play.
It really is simple. Sit in your seat, and fold. It's not that hard to do. The problem with people getting up, is that it would become the new “norm”. Everyone with stack that should make it, will literally get up and walk away. Personally, if I see players do this, and it's concievably possible… I'll organize for all of us to rotate the blinds until they are bust. Usually it isn't possible, but it really is the best way to deal with someone doing this.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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ltcolumbo said:
I am getting up from the table (and getting dealt out if that is what it took) to look at other tables. I dont understand the prevention from walking around looking other than to keep the action going? I am folding KK here if there are 3+ micro stacks left.
it wasnt even just “frowned upon” as said in other replies, the floor explicitly announced that anyone leaving their seat to look at other tables was gonna get a 1-round penalty. they even broke tables in the satellite area so that each table was at least 3 empty tables away from its nearest neighbor
February 20, 2015
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I guess the next step is going to the bathroom for 20 minutes. Lots of ways to make that comical. Speaking of comical, a 1-round penalty? That's like being told to go to your room when you have a PlayStation there.
I know the Thinking Poker podcast likes to cover ethical topics. This might be a good one for them.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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joelshitshow said:
I guess the next step is going to the bathroom for 20 minutes. Lots of ways to make that comical. Speaking of comical, a 1-round penalty? That's like being told to go to your room when you have a PlayStation there.
I know the Thinking Poker podcast likes to cover ethical topics. This might be a good one for them.
yeah, but a 1-round penalty for shorties who are twisting their necks looking to see who might be shorter than them…thats actually a significant penalty.
April 30, 2015
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I think if you are allowed to browse around stack sizes during bubble time, then there should also be a shot clock for your action. It is very likely that you are a likeable player at the table and short stacked. You wait for 5 minutes for every decision, but others in the table don't have a problem with that. This should be penalized as well.
May 20, 2013
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I get it now… but as someone speculated, I would contemplate going to the restroom and not returning for a while… Otherwise, I am folding any hand where the first card isnt an Ace without looking at the second card. and then I am folding any hand where the second card isnt an ace too.
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