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August 10, 2014
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$11 Bovada
Was trying to construct his flatting range pre, hands like TT, AQ perhaps?
The turn felt like a blocking bet, although I'm not sure what he'd be doing that with if AK is in his 4b range.
I have a tendency to level myself when I 3bet pre in spots with flatters. Thinking that it perhaps widens my perceived range to villain, and thus widens his flatting range. In practice this tends to be incorrect and gets me in trouble :).
River?
PokerStars - $10+$1|40/80 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 UTG+1: 4,864 (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 11) MP: 2,650 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28) MP+1: 4,359 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 27) MP+2: 2,995 (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28) Hero (CO): 5,220 BTN: 2,615 (VPIP: 7.41, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28) SB: 2,312 (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28) BB: 2,105 (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28) UTG: 2,880 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 28) SB posts SB 40, BB posts BB 80 Pre Flop: (pot: 120) Hero has JJ
fold, fold, fold, [color=red]MP+1 raises to 240[/color], MP+2 calls 240, [color=red]Hero raises to 840[/color], fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 600, fold Flop: (2,040, 2 players) 7
[color=red]MP+1 bets 830[/color], Hero calls 830 River: (3,700, 2 players) 4
February 20, 2015
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First, I have to laugh at MP+2 for folding preflop.
The only hands I worry about are 77, 88, AQ, and KQ. He may have been going for the check raise on the flop because if he has any of those hands then he is blocking you from having a lot of them.
I think I would fold as played, but I wonder what others think.
December 11, 2013
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Hmm I think this spot is actually quite close. Here's some math on the spot:
On River Villain shoves 2689, which is what we have to call. If we call the total pot is:
3700+ (2689*2) = 9078 chips
We risk 2689, so to break even we need to have 2689/9078 or 30% Equity. Basically, villain's range has to be at least 1/3 bluffs and thin value bets worse than JJ to make this a call. It seems like this is a spot where it's not likely villain has many bluffs on the river, and probably is very unbalanced towards value hands.
I think villain can realistically have a value range of AQ,KQ,77, and 88. I guess KK+ is possible, but I don't think it's that likely and would prefer to rule it out for this example.
Now let's say villain's bluffing range consists of AKdd,9Tdd,89dd and that villain thin value owns themselves with TT.
With these ranges, we have 22 value combos and 9 combos of bluffs and the TT's that go crazy. 9/31 = 29%, which means this is NOT a profitable call. If we add KK+ into our opponent's value range here it gets even worse. Seems like we should certainly find a fold here.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Yep. I also think there's a pretty strong case for flatting this pre, considering that you can't feel too good about getting all in even on a relatively safe run out in a 3b pot. Are you going to feel good about getting 4b pre?
August 10, 2014
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Hmm interesting, thank you all.
I admit that in the moment I didn’t consider flatting pre, and can identify a solid leak to plug.
I wonder if JJ would be in our squeezing range if we were on the button, for example. Or if we can always happily put it in our flatting range with this action.
September 14, 2014
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@dougy are we not risking $2689 to win $6389? why do we have to *2?
December 11, 2013
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Folding_aces, Im pretty sure the way I did it is correct, although it would be great if someone could confirm my calc. The reason we *2 is because the villain shoves 2689+ we call the 2689, so total pot is 2689*2 + 3700 that was already in the pot. When we lose, we lose 2689, but when we win we get the whole pot including the 2689 that we call.
June 11, 2012
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the formula is: bet/(current pot+bet)=equity
if you bet 1$ in 3$ you need to win 1/ (3+1)=1/4=0.25=25%
watch out in these situations when you calculate 3bets out of the blinds bc the money that you put in as a blind is gone so you are not risking that anymore.
lest have a look at it: NLHE 1/2 BTN raises to 6 you re in the BB and 3bet to 18 so the amount you risk is actually 16 and not 18 because 2 you have already in there from posting the BB.
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