Interesting hand I witnessed at the Aussie Millions main event between Jason Mercier & Brian Roberts.

I railed these guys for hours of Flight 3 of day one. I was sitting above the rail in the bar area looking down on the table and depending how Jason Mercier looked at his cards I could see them, especially during a hand if he would look at them a second or third time, he was a little sloppy and lifted them high without his second hand, so I could see them clearly. So I sat there for hour after hour watching what and how he played his hands. I never saw Roberts cards unless there was a showdown.

At this stage the blinds from memory were 200/400 100 Ante. They both have about 65k. Mercier has direct positon on Roberts. Mercier 3 bet Roberts on several occasions after Roberts opened and each time Roberts folded.

Now this hand came along. Roberts opened for $900 UTG + 1. Mercier 3 bet him to $2100 with KQ. Roberts 4 bets to $5100. Mercier 5 bets to 11k. Roberts 6 bets to 25k. Mercier decides to call the 6 bet.

The flop is A 6 A. Roberts bets 3.5K into a 50K pot. Mercier calls. Turn is the Q. Roberts bets 15k. Mercier calls. River is the 4.

Roberts bets 25K and basically is all in and so would Mercier if he calls. Mercier tanks forever and finally folds. Only Mercier and I know what he has. Roberts mucks and doesn't show, even after many pleas from the table and railers to show, but Roberts doesn't show.

Curious to know what others especially the pros, of the strategy or line Mercier took.

If he thought he was ahead after the turn, the 4 didn't change anything on the river. He must've known the river bet was coming so why call the turn?

Maybe he was expecting Roberts to check the river and then he can probably check for showdown value or possibly was gonna shove the river.

Anyways would love to hear what people think Mercier was thinking here?