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J9 in BB - line analysis
OkieNGa
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May 3, 2012 - 3:09 pm
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All,

    I am going to post a few hands in a few threads but in a different way.  I want to look at it from the point of view of the opponent, therefore the opponent is the Hero and I am the villan (the hand history reflects this, I have changed the hands and hidden mine but show the now hero's hand).  I want to analyze what my line, the villan, looks like and if I am repping what I want.

 

Merge Network Tuesday Evening 109 – $20,000 Guaranteed No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t80.00/t160.00 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG: t4760.00 29.75 BBs
UTG+1: t10689.00 66.81 BBs
MP1: t8279.00 51.74 BBs
MP2: t4260.00 26.62 BBs
CO: t10230.00 63.94 BBs <—– which is actually me
BTN: t2675.00 16.72 BBs
SB: t3901.00 24.38 BBs
Hero (BB): t4062.00 25.39 BBs

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BB with J of diamonds 9 of diamonds

 4 foldsCO raises to t400.00, 2 folds, Hero calls t240

Flop: (t880) 7 of diamonds 4 of spades J of clubs (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (t880) 4 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero bets t450.00, CO calls t450

River: (t1780) 6 of clubs (2 players)
Hero bets t888.00CO raises to t9380 all in, Hero………..

FkCoolers
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May 3, 2012 - 6:51 pm
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I basically rule out any sort of 4 except for quads since there should really not be any 4x hands in his BB flatting range unless he's an idiot. 

I range him on a possible Jack that was going for a check/raise on the flop, any sort of 7x in his hand, or a flush draw picked up on the turn.

On the river, I keep Jx and 7x in his range. I rule out shit like 22, 33, 55 because I don't think those get barreled twice. 88, 99, TT absolutely get barreled and I start asking myself if I can raise him off of anything except for a pretty good Jx hand that he coulda checked the flop with. 

If he's a fishtard I tend to tell myself you can't raise them off anything. 

Btw, your hand as CO looks like total bullshit unless you slowplayed a set on the flop or slowplayed AA/KK and I just don't see enough of that on Merge to ever be worried about it anymore. 

pokerkids
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May 4, 2012 - 12:09 am
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From the hero's (bb) point of view, the villain can have a decently wide range (most aces, broadways, good suited connectors, and pairs) from the cutoff, but probably isn't on just a steal because it's pre ante. His check back on the flop always seems like some sort of value hand because he would likely c-bet all his air. I'm thinking its a medium value hand like a weak jack, or 7. A 4 isn't much showdown value with two streets to come so I would expect him to bet one on the flop. It could also be a monster like top set. He would be more likely to bet middle/bottom set because there are more combos of top pair for the hero to have, but he could check and then be aggressive with it on later streets since the hero is short stacked, and the money will probably get in by the river anyway if the hero has some sort of decent value hand. When he just calls your turn lead his range basically stays the same (monsters, and medium value hands). When he jams over your river bet those medium value hands go out the window and the villain is polarized to monsters and air. However, I don't see much air being in the villains range because I expect him to bet most flops when he misses, especially on a dryer board like this. I think you are actually beat here and should fold.

*When I say the villain is polarized to monsters and air, his monsters don't have to just be sets. KJ, aj, and qq+ are basically the same thing as a set on this board by the river because the hero should never have aj or any over pair themselves. If the hero flopped a set, then they are just going to get pair off, even though they should never be set mining with their stack size. However, I think most people are likely to bet kj+ and qq+ on the flop and check back a set because a set just looks so much stronger in absolute strength even though in this situation the relative strength of aa and jj are basically the same. So, I would expect the hero's shove range on river to be mostly sets, than a good jack or an overpair even though they are all “monsters”. 

bennymacca
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May 4, 2012 - 12:36 am
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Cutoff’s shove in the river looks bluffy as hell to me, tbh you rep a missed draw so if that means you are actually strong then well played. Maybe a hand like 88 or 99 that you are turning into a bluff and trying to get the other guy off a queen

pokerkids
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May 4, 2012 - 2:02 am
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bennymacca said:

Cutoff's shove in the river looks bluffy as hell to me, tbh you rep a missed draw so if that means you are actually strong then well played. Maybe a hand like 88 or 99 that you are turning into a bluff and trying to get the other guy off a queen

What missed draw is he repping besides missed diamonds? He won't check behind with 56 on the flop. Missed diamonds are the only other thing, but I tend to still think that villain is betting this flop with almost all of his air, and backdoor diamonds would be decent to double barrel if another diamond hits. The river just seems like a terrible spot to shove as a bluff because you can't think that a standard player is going to fold a jack or better. The hero shouldn't have a hand like 77-1010 because he would shove those in preflop with his stack size, so he is either bluffing, or has a jack or better that he wont fold.

OkieNGa
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May 4, 2012 - 11:27 am
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Great analysis……..I had total air, AheartKheart.  When I watched my hand replay for the tourney, this was an obvious spot where my line looked like crap.  I now need to start doing this type of line with the nizuts.

pokerkids
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May 4, 2012 - 3:56 pm
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An adjustment you could make to playing this hand would be to start cbetting your air on the flop. Unless you hit an Ace or a King its your best chance at winning this pot. Once he calls flop we can usually put him on a pair and play turn and river accordingly. This means either checking back turn to see another card or barrell a turn card that connects with the board. Being that this board is super dry there are not many threatening turn cards to barrell except for overcards. If we are not cbetting the flop we need to just fold to the hero's lead on the turn. I'm just curious…what exactly do you think you were representing?

OkieNGa
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May 4, 2012 - 8:56 pm
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Well, that is the problem, I was in aggro mode without thinkin too much about it.  This has always been and continues to be my problem, I do crap like this without thinking through what I am representing  However, if I were to step back and look at what I could possibly have to make this jam…….. 6s or 85……..but realistically, 6s or air.

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