I'm chipleader of the Merge 10K 30^4 with 13 or 14 left. Villain is an absolute drooler who I thought was capable of something as stupid as folding this river after putting so many chips in.
That said, how terrible is this? (I'm not saying it didn't work…but it's pretty horrible right?)
…..anager.net
NL Holdem $3,000(BB) Merge Game#38527738242
MrMonkeyballz ($113,194)
rivermen123 ($174,444)
FREETAG ($50,914)
BigPhish12 ($62,181)
tedSTRETCHED ($74,261)
scfoods ($65,848)
scfoods antes $300
MrMonkeyballz antes $300
rivermen123 antes $300
FREETAG antes $300
BigPhish12 antes $300
tedSTRETCHED antes $300
MrMonkeyballz posts (SB) $1,500
rivermen123 posts (BB) $3,000
Dealt to rivermen123 J A
fold, fold, fold, fold,
MrMonkeyballz calls $1,500
rivermen123 raises to $9,000
MrMonkeyballz calls $6,000
FLOP ($19,800) 7 Q 6
MrMonkeyballz checks
rivermen123 bets $8,855
MrMonkeyballz calls $8,855
TURN ($37,510) 7 Q 6 3
MrMonkeyballz checks
rivermen123 bets $16,885
MrMonkeyballz calls $16,885
RIVER ($71,280) 7 Q 6 3 5
MrMonkeyballz bets $21,000 (villain has 57154 behind.)
rivermen123 raises to $139,404 (AI)
wow nice aggression
not the way i woulda played it tbh unless i had a solid read on my opponent
Seems like this guy has completely missed or made some kind of stupid 2 pair hand or random 4?
He like never has a flush there and you're putting him to the ultimate test in any case!
July 3, 2010
I wish he had a little more behind but I don't mind it. His line really indicates no strength. You'd think if he had a baby flush he'd raise at some point to protect and also get value at the same time.
Seems like a one pair hand putting out a blocker and he probably has a weakish diamond kicker to go with it. If you think you can get him off 1 pair with close to half his stack already invested.
Also, wug reads on tedSTRETCHED?
FkCoolers said:
I wish he had a little more behind but I don't mind it. His line really indicates no strength. You'd think if he had a baby flush he'd raise at some point to protect and also get value at the same time.
Seems like a one pair hand putting out a blocker and he probably has a weakish diamond kicker to go with it. If you think you can get him off 1 pair with close to half his stack already invested.
Also, wug reads on tedSTRETCHED?
Teddy is a good player. We have quite a bit of history (lol chat berateaments).
Not sure if I can share reads. Are we allowed to exchange reads on specific players here? Seems like that's something people get in trouble for on other sites….am I wrong?
Would like a couple more replies before I post results.
Nice aggression but I don't think many people are bet folding the river with that many chips behind and that much invested. His line is silly but for you to believe he can fold must mean you have a uber read. Doesnt sound like you are that confident in your read and I dont think he folds often enough for your play to be +EV. Looks like he is an idiot with a set here, maybe even a set of 3's trying to float the flop one time and get you to slow down. That is just my thought but there are a million possible hands here.
Problem I have is this river is horrible for you to continue your bluff/aggression. He can't put you on the mini card for the straight too often. Your all in says you are not worried about him having a straight. I guess he could lead this river because it is a scare card but still think it is horrible for him to lead/fold the river here. Interested in what his hand was.
He had a set of sevens. He called. I didn't expect him to fold that.
Here's some thoughts I have that might be completely wrong:
On this board, 777 is really no better than, say, pocket aces or pocket kings, or even AQ/KQ…it's a bluffcatcher, right? Clearly I'm not raising this river with just top pair.
However, my 3-barrelling range here is very polarized (especially blind vs blind) and that means he should be calling with a lot of one pair hands as well. Does that make sense or not?
Maybe stacks aren't deep enough for that to be a consideration. I don't know.
But this close to the final table bubble, I thought I could definitely scare him into folding something like A7(x).
When I think about ICM/tournament life considerations, I rarely if ever think about it from my own perspective (obv leak)…I think of it in terms of scaring other people off of their hands (I tend to blow up deep in tournaments because of this…finished 10th in the Merge 100K a few weeks ago after 3bet shoving 86 sooted lol). Does he really have a hand that he's going to risk busting here? Against a bad, weak player who rarely has this good a chance at a big score, I think I have a lot of fold equity here, absurd as it may seem.
I kind of threw dynamics out the window too. I'd generally been crapping all over him, isoing him with complete garbage for the past hour or so (he was running a 29/9), so I probably should have taken that into account. People get sick of folding to the same guy over and over again (I know I sure do).
I just don't like letting go of a pot when I see a BS river bet like this, especially when I think I can exploit a weak passive villain close to the final table bubble.
To be honest, bottom line, all I thought about was how weak that river bet looked. No real deep thought went into it. I tanked for a bit (which probably didn't help my cause), and decided it was bullshit and to just shove. Thought he was bad enough to find a fold.
I think I'm probably just as likely to bluff shove this river, if not more so, if it's a fourth diamond and he checks to me or makes this weak river bet. That's pretty spew-tarded isn't it?
Clearly this is all villain-dependent. My read on this guy was weak-passive donk who's not going to call it off without a nutty hand….or what he thinks is one. (Logic fail: he's shoving this river with a truly nutty hand.)
(I certainly don't give him credit for being capable of betting small to induce a bluff shove.)
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