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Three villians at the table had been pretty agressive, and I had been card dead. Hadn't played for 14 hands, and I hadn't had better than a pair of 3s in over 30 hands. I thought shoving might work because I hadn't been playing many hands. I also considered putting in a min raise. It might look like a monster that I am trying to get value out of.
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000.00/t8000.00 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
D-Bo_YaZONE (SB): t508847.00 63.61 BBs
JayDa 0104 (BB): t145180.00 18.15 BBs
haynes10 (UTG): t102036.00 12.75 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t89500.00 11.19 BBs
SJROC27 (UTG+2): t240310.00 30.04 BBs
bigwalkdog (MP1): t447542.00 55.94 BBs
DarkHorse19 (MP2): t593818.00 74.23 BBs
SuitedAcesBaby (CO): t358284.00 44.79 BBs
Wu Ming182 (BTN): t174850.00 21.86 BBs
Pre Flop: (t12000) Hero is UTG+1 with Q
K
1 fold
Too many people to get through to shove here. Wait for position and then find your spot.
I think your at the point here where it's pick a hand and shove. If your raising utg what are you gonna fold to. You still have some fold equity here and KQ is still a pretty strong hand. Not sure of the math but pretty sure shoving is the way to go here.
If the agv. calling procent is 4% (99+,AQs+,AKo) then it is slightly +EV
| Pot | 12000 | |
| Your Stack | 89500 | |
| BB | 8000 | |
| Effective Stack | 89500 | |
| Single Call Range | 4,00% | |
| Left to Act | 7 | |
| Call % | 24,86% | |
| Fold % | 75,14% | |
| Win % | 30,00% | |
| Lose % | 70,00% | |
| If we shove and get folds | 101500 | |
| If we shove, get called and win | 191000 | |
| If we shove, get called and lose | 0 | |
| EV of a Shove | 90514 | |
| EV of a Fold | 89500 | |
| Net EV of a Shove | 1014 | |
| EV as % of Stack | 1,13% | |
| EV as # of BBs | 0,13 | |
| Risk of Busto | 17,40% |
But if the calling range is 5% (99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo). It is -EV
| Pot | 12000 |
| Your Stack | 89500 |
| BB | 8000 |
| Effective Stack | 89500 |
| Single Call Range | 5,00% |
| Left to Act | 7 |
| Call % | 30,17% |
| Fold % | 69,83% |
| Win % | 31,50% |
| Lose % | 68,50% |
| If we shove and get folds | 101500 |
| If we shove, get called and win | 191000 |
| If we shove, get called and lose | 0 |
| EV of a Shove | 89031 |
| EV of a Fold | 89500 |
| Net EV of a Shove | -469 |
| EV as % of Stack | -0,52% |
| EV as # of BBs | -0,06 |
| Risk of Busto | 20,66% |
I would fold and wait to jam when in position. The table have to be really nitty for me shove here.
Tough decision Rob, but I agree with Hawkeye. One of the big stacks behind could easily call with any moderate Ace and have you dominated. If you were suited, however, would definately shove.
thanks for the responses guys. I knew it close. I shoved. The guy with 500K called me with A8o, and I lost. I ran the math, and it did come up -EV. I think I was getting a little frustrated with my lack of hands, so I decided to take a shot. I'll wait for a better spot next time.
I think this is a decision where your goal for the overall tournament needs to be taken into account. If you are more interested in possibly moving up a few pay spots because it will have a larger than average effect on your bankroll, I think I would fold here. However if your goal is to make a deeper run and attempt to get into the higher paying spots, I think you have to push here and hope you arent too much a a dog if you are called, imo.
portlandrounder said:
I think this is a decision where your goal for the overall tournament needs to be taken into account. If you are more interested in possibly moving up a few pay spots because it will have a larger than average effect on your bankroll, I think I would fold here. However if your goal is to make a deeper run and attempt to get into the higher paying spots, I think you have to push here and hope you arent too much a a dog if you are called, imo.
It has notthing to do about what your goal is. When it is a -EV spot. Then it is a -EV spot. To push here and hope you arent too much a dog if you are called althoug you know it is -EV. Then it is gamling, imo. 
If we want to be winning pokerplayers. We should not be gamling, but look for +EV moves.
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