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May 30, 2012
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Villain is a Supernova, had been averagely active, had 3bet etc.
other villian is gonig to donk most value hands and pairs here so he is almost never C/C here unless he flopped a boat or quads (4 combos). I have a reasonably active image but he probably doesnt give me a hell of alot of respect. PokerStars – $30+$3|700/1400 NL – Holdem – 8 players MP+1: 33,662.00 MP+1 posts ante 175.00, CO posts ante 175.00, BTN posts ante 175.00, SB posts ante 175.00, BB posts ante 175.00, UTG posts ante 175.00, UTG+1 posts ante 175.00, Hero posts ante 175.00, SB posts SB 700.00, BB posts BB 1,400.00 Pre Flop: (3500.00) Hero has Kd Ad fold, fold, Hero raises to 2,800.00, MP+1 calls 2,800.00, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,400.00 Flop: (10500.00, 3 players) 4d 7s 4h what do i do and why? what is his range? what should my bet/call and bet/fold ranges be.? |
July 7, 2012
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Its a tough spot for sure. Basically you have the nut air hand and a backdoor flush draw. If you where HU with villain I would say that this is a good board for him to jam on as it is so dry and it is going to be difficult for you call with anything but a strong pair. With the BB still in the hand (regardless of his previous plays) its hard for villain to have complete air here either. I think it most likely he has 88-TT, sometimes 55 or 66, most of the time I think he 3 bets pre with JJ & QQ as he really doesnt want additional callers. It is possible he has trapped with KK & AA. The only other real possibility is 56 on a semi bluff, does he really jam with a 7 here?
It costing 26487 more to win 45387 so you're getting 1.71:1 on a call. Against the assumed value range from above of 55, 66, 88-AA, A4s, 45s and assumed semi bluff range of 56s and any sensible 7, 22&33, you only have 28.2% equity. Even against just the semi bluff range you only have 36.1% equity.
I think you just have to sigh, fold and move on. You're going to cripple your stack here if you call and loose, you can find a better spot.
July 17, 2012
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I agree with Turb. I think it's better to lay this down, especially since you could be drawing to the second best hand.
May 30, 2012
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Why wouldnt he be flatting with like all pairs on this flop tho?
May 30, 2012
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and why would JJ+ or 88+ for that matter jam here? he doesnt think im going to hero off light, and expects me to bet/fold all broadways and overs, so if he jams 55/66 he gets snapped by better here a tonand folds out a range of over cards he has 75% equity against and may barrel turns and rivers. Only bad turn card really for pairs is A since it connects most with my range.
June 2, 2012
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Seems like 65 or some other straight draw to me. Not sure how competent villain is. Seems kind of fishy by is jam here which leads me to believe he could definitely do it with the hands you mention above as well. I fold though as I'm really not sure what this monkey is doing and we can obv wait for better spots.
June 1, 2012
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Why wouldnt he be flatting with like all pairs on this flop tho?
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If I’m reading this right, he only has around 20bbs left post and if he just flats your cb with 88-1010 or maybe lower pockets, it would be a tough spot for him if an over card hits the turn. As he is a supernova, he’s prob on quite a few tables so id expect him to flat lower pockets here pre as he starts with too many bbs to just jam in mp1. I’d imagine if he has 88-1010 etc and he’s multi tabling or even just wants to avoid a tough spot on the turn he’d jam these hands every time. I doubt he’s flatting sc here pre and I also think this is def a fold.
I like to quickly check how many tables they are on if they aren’t hidden as they tend to avoid hard decisions with lots of tables going (unless its deep itm/ft.)
May 30, 2012
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should add this was with 40 left so i think he is paying attention
May 30, 2012
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m@ddm@n said:
Why wouldnt he be flatting with like all pairs on this flop tho?
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If I'm reading this right, he only has around 20bbs left post and if he just flats your cb with 88-1010 or maybe lower pockets, it would be a tough spot for him if an over card hits the turn. As he is a supernova, he's prob on quite a few tables so id expect him to flat lower pockets here pre as he starts with too many bbs to just jam in mp1. I'd imagine if he has 88-1010 etc and he's multi tabling or even just wants to avoid a tough spot on the turn he'd jam these hands every time. I doubt he's flatting sc here pre and I also think this is def a fold.
I like to quickly check how many tables they are on if they aren't hidden as they tend to avoid hard decisions with lots of tables going (unless its deep itm/ft.)
its not a tough decision, stationing off is always better since my double barreling range should be wider than my bet/call range. plus if scared money calls he has 7x everytime. jamming makes me fold a range of overcards he has 75% equity against and get me to call with a range that makes him dead
May 30, 2012
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Doubt a supernova is flatting cards that pick up a str8 draw on this flop sub 30 bbs looks alot like a pp unless he has a tendency of raising cb's I would fold and look for a better spot with my 35 bbs
September 29, 2012
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Fold. Why worry about playing a guessing game. If you are thinking I might be good is usually the times where you talk yourself into a bad call for more than half your stack. Fold and move on the the next hand. You have nothing, except a missed AK.
Further, remember he did not shove heads up either, he shoved with the BB still active in the hand, whose, check really means nothing at this point.
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