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Is this too ambitious (greedy)?
HollywoodHarry
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September 19, 2016 - 2:42 pm
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Stars $33 buy in (60/120/15)

SB – 23bb

BB – 51bb

UTG – 27bb

UTG+1 – 20bb

MP (Villain) – 87bb (10454)

MP+1 – sitting out

HJ – 24bb

CO (Hero) – 83bb (9973)

BTN – 36bb

 

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9diamond8diamond

Villain (MP) raises to 360, Hero calls, everyone else folds

Flop: (1020) 4heart7heart8spade

Villain bets 432 and Hero calls

Turn: (1884) Jspade

Villain bets 876 and Hero calls

River: (3636) Tdiamond

Villain checks and Hero bets 5731

 

The villain was quite tight (15/10/5 after 59 hands) but I’d seen him play another hand in a similar way and check call a half pot bet on a similar board with top pair, top kicker and win a big pot. I thought I wouldn’t get any calls from missed flush draws so I was targeting AJ, overpairs, two pair and better. My thought process was that I would have a 9 or absolutely nothing and if he was check-calling a smaller bet he would probably call this one as well. Having thought about it later though I’m not sure whether this would fold out too many of his marginal hands (2 pair or worse, maybe even sets). 

I don’t normally make this sort of sizing but I’m trying to add new facets to my game. Is this a good spot to try it or am I too unbalanced towards having it and just fold out too many hands for this to be +ev?

Thanks!

HollywoodHarry
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September 19, 2016 - 4:22 pm
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Just a correction to the last sentence – obviously it’s +ev but is it the optimal play? 

Foucault

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September 19, 2016 - 4:49 pm
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I like what you’re going for here, but could you really have “absolutely nothing”? What’s an example of “absolutely nothing” that you would play this way up to the river?

HollywoodHarry
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September 19, 2016 - 5:16 pm
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Good point, not very much… maybe A5/A6 of spades. Also, do you think that being against the one person at the table who can bust me and as I generally play pretty snugly in the early levels a big overbet like this looks just too strong?

Foucault

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September 19, 2016 - 6:44 pm
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No, I think it looks too strong because you basically never get to the river with hands that need to bluff. You need to offer your opponent better odds to compensate him for the fact that you will rarely be bluffing here.

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