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June 24, 2012
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Villan is playing 12/9 over 82 hands with a 3bet of 6.5(he 3bet shoved twice from blinds when he was short) and has never 4bet. We're are in the money with about 40 left and I'm about 8th in chips.
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t200 – 8 players – View hand 2384325
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: BB = 10.5, t20992
UTG+1: BB = 31.9, t63853
MP1: BB = 24.1, t48285
MP2: BB = 8.4, t16836
Hero (CO): BB = 46.6, t93244
BTN: BB = 22.5, t45030
SB: BB = 66.8, t133688
BB: BB = 6.8, t13535
Pre Flop: (t4600) Hero is CO with K
K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t4000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t9355, 3 folds, UTG+1 raises to t17500, Hero raises to t93044 all in, UTG+1 calls t46153 all in
Flop: (t131906) 3 Q 7
(2 players – 2 are all in)
Turn: (t131906) 7 (2 players – 2 are all in)
River: (t131906) T (2 players – 2 are all in)
I really wanted to fold this preflop but I had this stupid rule in my head that I always hear people say “You have Kings you can't fold”. Some people will say its just a cooler move on, but I think these are the right circumstances where we can fold kings.
The villian is a nit with a 9% open percentage and hasn't been aggressive at all. He raises from early position I 3bet and he then 4bets quite small. What else could it be? Its UTG+1 vs a button 3bet, so its not as if its a blind battle or CO vs button senario plus he is not the type that is goin 4bet light. AK he flats the 3bet most of the time QQ he might 4bet but unlikely and not to this size. The clue here is all in the sizing he wants to make it enough that there will be a big pot if I flat(i.e not just click it back) and not too much to make sure I don't fold with just enough behind so it looks like I have fold equity. I know because I used a very similar size with AA a few hands earlier to stack QQ so thats what really clued me in to the sizing.
The other reason I should have folded is, the tourney has only 40 left and I have a decent enough stack, even if I fold pre I still have 41bb and crucially I hold onto my ability to steal, 3bet light and chip up which I was doing pretty effectively. When I'm wrong I lose all that and I'm down to a shove stack.
So even if I do end up folding the best hand here a small percentage of the time I still think its the right decision given how often I'm going to run into aces here.
Thoughts?
Edit: Can we ever 5bet click it back and fold to a shove? I'm not mad about the size of my shove.
November 18, 2013
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This happens to me a lot in cash games really tough to get away from, flip side sometimes he has cowboys and you have bullets. I think this can be QQ a good deal of the time. Agree Nit is flatting AK to your 3b. I guess in retrospect you can get away from it but in the heat of the moment all but impossible. It is hard to go with your gut in these spots and fold.
This happened to me the other night, I had 18 bb in the sb with KK. Action utg opens mp 4 bets button 4 bets I shove utg raiser folds mp shoves button calls. AA,QQ,KK all in pre (button had QQ).
March 26, 2013
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Range is usually going to be strong but I think it will include AA-JJ, AK, maybe even AQ as well. In addition to that you need to remember that you are raising from the cut-off which is a good steal spot so villain might click it back and fold if you shove although looking at stack sizes it would probably be a bad play.
Even if you run this through stove against the strong range I think you will find it is an auto-ship. If he ever has just AA-QQ, plus AK in his range (which he always does) then you are still profitable. Ship it and if it is AA then so be it. Don't level yourself into thinking someone will only ever 4b with AA from early position.
November 22, 2013
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I can recall only one time in a major tournament where I folded QQ, and I was right, my opponent had KK. But KK is entirely different because his range includes QQ. His range has to include QQ+, even if he is a NIT, which means you are ahead of his range or at least even with it, which means you have more than correct odds. I don’'t think I’'ve ever folded KK preflop in a tournament…there may be hypothetical scenarios in which I would, eg. first hand of the WSOP, but those are merely hypothetical. I don't see how you could fold KK here, or even be inclined to. I think I would have to be 100+ BB deep and facing a massive overbet to fold KK. Here, since you have a bigger stack than him it’s really for the size of his stack, which is 32BB. That’s not nearly deep enough for me to consider folding KK. Additionally, even if he has AA you have 20% equity, and even if you lose you still have almost 15BB left with which to NINJA back into it.
June 24, 2012
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I can recall only one time in a major tournament where I folded QQ, and I was right, my opponent had KK. But KK is entirely different because his range includes QQ. His range has to include QQ+, even if he is a NIT, which means you are ahead of his range or at least even with it, which means you have more than correct odds. I don”t think I”ve ever folded KK preflop in a tournament…there may be hypothetical scenarios in which I would, eg. first hand of the WSOP, but those are merely hypothetical. I don’t see how you could fold KK here, or even be inclined to. I think I would have to be 100+ BB deep and facing a massive overbet to fold KK. Here, since you have a bigger stack than him it’s really for the size of his stack, which is 32BB. That’s not nearly deep enough for me to consider folding KK. Additionally, even if he has AA you have 20% equity, and even if you lose you still have almost 15BB left with which to NINJA back into it.
Why does his range have to include QQ? He would 4bet bigger if he had QQ to avoid havent to play flop out of position that may contain and overcard to his QQs. When he 4bets and is now facing the 5bet shove he has nearly turned his QQs into a bluff catcher because Im never shoving with worse for value. I also prob dont have many bluffs in my range given how strong I think his range is, so he ends up facing a shove from a range that is heavily weighted towards hands that crush him.
November 22, 2013
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I don't think that's necessarily true that players would make a larger 4 bet with QQ or AK. I actually remember Negreneau writing about a situation early on in his career where he folded KK bc his opponent just had to have AA. His opponent flashed QQ and he went on tilt for the rest of the tournament. I don't necessarily even disagree with you, it's a tough fold, one that I wouldn't make personally. Fold KK if your read is going that way, I cant convince you otherwise.
June 24, 2012
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I think I would if I was in the same situation again given that I lose too much when I run into aces and by folding I can still play with a 40bb stack. Having said that these are a very specific set of circumstances that wont come up very often so im not goin make a habbit of folding KKs pre.
March 26, 2013
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Da kid, I think you are making a very big mistake if you fold KK against one player in this kind of battle in an online tournament. Of course it is up to you but the villain would need to be the absolute supernit of all supernits to even consider folding and even then I would jam it in rather than second guess myself.
Look at the numbers to start with.
Villain remaining stack after 4b = 46,353
Pot size after villain 4b = 31,455
Effective odds (assuming villain never folds and jams) = (46,353 + 31,455)/46,353 = 1.67/1 = 37.5% equity required.
So, if we only include AA, KK and AK in his range and AK will be there a lot as there are more combinations of AK than AA or KK then I think we must have at least 45% equity. If we mix in QQ then we are going to have around 55%. Then factor in the odd occasions when villain is doing this with hands like 99-JJ, AQ to “look stronger” than shoving as well as a couple of random bluffs if he is thinking you are messing around from your position with a bigger stack then it is a compelling call.
Even giving this villain only AA and KK means you probably have 35% equity.
Bear in mind that whilst 40bbs is comfortable, it only takes a couple of levels and a couple of failed 3b or preflop raise + cbets to fall into the 20bbs territory. Personally, I'm taking my chances in these spots to build a stack with a hand that is more likely best to give me a chance of dominating and winning the tournament.
Hopefully the numbers give you a bit of food for thought. Try it in poker stove and play around with the calculations and you should see what I mean.
November 22, 2013
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I'll share my one similar story, although this is from a couple of years ago, and my memory isn't precisely clear. I was nearing the final table of a major live event. I was once chip leader with over 100BB but through a number of small mistakes my stack dwindled to about 60BB as the final table neared. The Villian is a professional from France, very tight, but very intelligent in the BB. An older man opens from UTG+1 2.5X BB. I have QQ and am looking to pick up steam on the button so I 3 bet to 7BB. The Villian in the BB just shoves over the top and has me covered slightly with 70BB. The old man folds. Now if it was anybody else I would insta-call with QQ, despite the fact that 4betting looks strong here, I had been 3 Betting light, so there is some chance a random Villian could be bluffing. I could also be way ahead if he is doing this with JJ or AK. However, I had been playing with this Villian for 2 days straight and I never saw him 4 bet the entire time and had only 3 bet once. His range is extremely tight and I don't think it includes JJ here, it's a possibility, but I discounted it. I also believe this particular Villian would flat with AK to see a flop. Also, I thought there was a chance he would get tricky with AA and just flat. It really looked like he had KK and was trying to fold out any random Ax. Another element played into it and it was that this Villian was a personal friend and I was somewhat reluctant to believe he would make this move as a bluff. By just overbetting allin it really looks like he is subliminally telling me that he has KK and to get out of the way. Given that he's not 4 betting as a bluff and that I don't think his range includes JJ, I can safely fold. He shows KK. I told him I had QQ and his reply was, “Jeff, I can't believe you thought that long about calling, you know I never show up with JJ there.” But that was a very specific read, with a very specific opponent. I don't think I would ever fold KK or QQ preflop against an unknown online field. As many times that you make “a great read” and fold QQ or KK, there are many more times where you think you made a great read, but your opponent really had JJ, and you will never know whether you made the correct decision or not bc they won't show.
March 11, 2013
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Here’s how I look at it: sadly it’s been quite a while since I’ve been allowed to play real online poker. But from what I do remember when I used a HUD, 12/9 isn’t that much of a nit. Very tight, yes, but showing some aggression with most of what he chooses to play. Remember there are some super-tight passives who would run like 12/2 or 20/3. In other words,there are some players who hardly ever raise. Against them, yes you can think about dumping kings. But not this Villian with about 31 BB.
June 24, 2012
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Poking_Fun said:
Da kid, I think you are making a very big mistake if you fold KK against one player in this kind of battle in an online tournament. Of course it is up to you but the villain would need to be the absolute supernit of all supernits to even consider folding and even then I would jam it in rather than second guess myself.
Look at the numbers to start with.
Villain remaining stack after 4b = 46,353
Pot size after villain 4b = 31,455
Effective odds (assuming villain never folds and jams) = (46,353 + 31,455)/46,353 = 1.67/1 = 37.5% equity required.
So, if we only include AA, KK and AK in his range and AK will be there a lot as there are more combinations of AK than AA or KK then I think we must have at least 45% equity. If we mix in QQ then we are going to have around 55%. Then factor in the odd occasions when villain is doing this with hands like 99-JJ, AQ to “look stronger” than shoving as well as a couple of random bluffs if he is thinking you are messing around from your position with a bigger stack then it is a compelling call.
Even giving this villain only AA and KK means you probably have 35% equity.
Bear in mind that whilst 40bbs is comfortable, it only takes a couple of levels and a couple of failed 3b or preflop raise + cbets to fall into the 20bbs territory. Personally, I'm taking my chances in these spots to build a stack with a hand that is more likely best to give me a chance of dominating and winning the tournament.
Hopefully the numbers give you a bit of food for thought. Try it in poker stove and play around with the calculations and you should see what I mean.
Your numbers are wrong because you haven't factored in card removal. I have 38% equity vs AA,KK and AK, thats assuming that he 4bets 100% of the time with AK, which is not the case. Im 18% vs AA and KK
June 24, 2012
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ATrainBoston said:
Here's how I look at it: sadly it's been quite a while since I've been allowed to play real online poker. But from what I do remember when I used a HUD, 12/9 isn't that much of a nit. Very tight, yes, but showing some aggression with most of what he chooses to play. Remember there are some super-tight passives who would run like 12/2 or 20/3. In other words,there are some players who hardly ever raise. Against them, yes you can think about dumping kings. But not this Villian with about 31 BB.
Im not saying he doesn't open wider than AAs, I'm saying I think he 4bets to this size with AAs maybe 90% of the time.
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