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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Is this an ICM fold ?

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Is this an ICM fold ?

Mike_

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February 16, 2012 - 6:14 pm

$22 buy in at ipoker – structure absolutely terrible.

Sorry the converter doesnt work with ipoker –

GAME #3994415255: Texas Hold'em NL Tournament 2012/02/16 21:35:04
Table $2,000 GP Freezeout, 686962051, 686962051, 20120216221731 (Tournament: $2,000 GP Freezeout Buy-In: $20+$2)
Seat 1: Matt0001 ($21,132.00 in chips)
Seat 2: alba08 ($38,715.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: spud01 ($44,546.75 in chips)
Seat 4: mikegill111 ($47,252.00 in chips)
Seat 5: magic4444 ($26,356.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Bubbles1831 ($25,358.00 in chips)
Seat 8: lecoqAA88 ($55,540.00 in chips)
Seat 9: dimitrios1 ($46,367.00 in chips)
Seat 10: P_1234 ($39,732.00 in chips)
spud01: Post Ante $200.00
mikegill111: Post Ante $200.00
magic4444: Post Ante $200.00
Bubbles1831: Post Ante $200.00
lecoqAA88: Post Ante $200.00
dimitrios1: Post Ante $200.00
P_1234: Post Ante $200.00
Matt0001: Post Ante $200.00
alba08: Post Ante $200.00
spud01: Post SB $1,000.00
mikegill111: Post BB $2,000.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mikegill111 [6 Spades 6 Clubs]
magic4444: Fold
Bubbles1831: Fold
lecoqAA88: Fold
dimitrios1: Fold
P_1234: Fold
Matt0001: Raise (NF) $20,932.00
alba08: Fold
spud01: Fold
mikegill111: ???

Villain is 7/3 thru 29 hands.

Payouts :

1 $575

2 $391

3 $299

4 $212.75

5 $149.50

6 $120.75

7 $97.75

8 $80.50

9 $63.25

bennymacca

Adelaide Australia

Road Gambling with Doyle

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October 6, 2010

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February 16, 2012 - 6:30 pm

given how tight the villain has been, i think he is probably sweating the pay bumps, and would mean that he would be pretty tight here. I think its a fold

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shutEMdown

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Guests

February 16, 2012 - 6:32 pm

im not sure icm even comes into play…nobody is super short. stacks are shallow with no one crushing. its not life changing money, we play for the trophy. his sample size is rather small but still shows hes nitty. still, we are prob like 44% against his 10bb shoving range but around 48% if we include 22-55 and the weakest Aces, which we prob should include so…. its an ev call imo, unless you have a solid read on him that he isnt shoving but the very top of what a std shove range in that spot usually is…

running0uts

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Guests

February 17, 2012 - 9:12 am

He may be tight but over 27 hands you can’t put too much faith in those numbers especially as they are probably from before the FT bubble. Also this in a pretty obvious shove spot for him given that he is short stack and in co with an unopened pot. You have 48% against a 15% range (including all pps) so I think a call or fold could be argued for. Obviously you should be playing to win here and this is a chance to take the cl but I don’t think you HAVE to take a flip, though ICM has nothing to do with it for me.

rivermen123

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Guests

February 17, 2012 - 3:05 pm

I usually think of ICM in terms of how it affects other people (I assume others are too cautious or scared and won't put chips in light) as opposed to how it affects me. I prefer light shoves to marginal calls, personally. I fold here.

trujustrus

Guest

Guests

February 21, 2012 - 10:41 pm

hmmmm i think im calling here as it's been said 27 hands and specially from the FT bubble just cant make you fold here imo. If villain is competent he should be shoving a pretty wide range here, you don't have to be neccesarily flipping, the Ace-rag hand is super standard to shove here so I think calling half stack here is +EV. I mean with the stacks so shallow I don't think we can pass this spot, and it's for half our stack so if we lose it's not the end of the world. I'm def calling here

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