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I like shoving here, you have to play to win and you being shorter stacked you're gonna make to make a few moves to get there plus your stack is great size for it and if he has been bullying the table someone has to play back at him for he's gonna keep up the pressure and If he calls you're more than likely flipping.
Its probably too much to straight shove with 3 people behind you who cover you. I'd probably sigh fold with no reads.
~23 BB left with a raise in front and peole left to act…I say fold and find a better spot.
Would anyona consider calling and see where you're at after the flop? besides spiking a 6 you might take the pot away on a low cards brd. thoughts? or is Hero simply too shallow
It looks like average stack is in the 28-32k range and you're sitting around half. 23bb's is not so bad, but you're ITM now and obviously want the win, so you have to make some moves in the near future. IMO, the big question is whether this is an ideal situation to build your stack. With 3 guys left to act after you, the move is raise or fold. Calling is too suceptible to being squeezed which means you're now facing an even tougher decision.
You said Villain has been opening lately, but showing good hands. He may be using this to his advantage and opening lighter here, but given that he's utg, the chances are lower. If he has AJ+, KQ+, you're ok. If he has 22-88, you're likely going to get called and can outplay him post-flop. If you're up against 99+, you're in trouble and likely facing a 4-bet for your tournament life. That being said, I think the move is to find out where you are. A 3-bet shove is a bit aggressive, especially if one of the 3 left to act wakes up with a hand. I say making it somewhere between 2400-2800 is ideal. It'll force the remaining guys to fold 95% of the time and also put pressure on the Villain.
The following outcomes can happen; 1) You win just over 4bb's pre-flop without any contest. 2) You get 4-bet by someone left to act and muck with 19bb's left in your stack. 3) The Villain comes over the top all-in and you now decide whether it's time for a race. 4) The Villain calls and you outplay him post-flop.
This may seem a bit spewy, but again I emphasize the fact that you're ITM and want to win. Appreciate any feedback.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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in my opinion putting any chips in with your stack size, and the slightest possibility of folding is sub-optimal. You cannot afford to bleed any chips right now because you lose fold equity for future shove/resteal spots. Plus when you do double up, your double is much bigger if you keep these chips.
Every flop is going to scare you and you'll have to fold too often.
The decision is push or fold and I'd fold because his range is too strong and when you add in more people left to act it's just better to wait for another spot.
3bet jam sir…..we are not waiting any longer for a spot with this stack….this is ur spot.
Ok thnx guys…
I did fold because looked a liitle high variance to me. I did not find that better spot tho ;( pretty card dead after this hand and everytime i had A5s or something people shoved before i had the chance.
I went out with 88 vs QQ in 48th place i think.
July 3, 2010
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isaacjames said:
Would anyona consider calling and see where you're at after the flop? besides spiking a 6 you might take the pot away on a low cards brd. thoughts? or is Hero simply too shallow
Too shallow. Not to mention you could get squeezed from someone behind you.
The OR will c-bet any flop that comes out so you'd have to r/f the flop or float once and put out a big turn bet.
Either way that leads to losing like 1/4 of your stack if you're incorrect.
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