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Is this a reship?
dawhiteninja
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March 15, 2012 - 7:57 pm
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I'm fresh off a bad beat in the MicroMillions #03 to claim 700th. Can someone please comfort me by telling me this was the right play? The whole table was playing pretty tight. This is a standard re-ship right? From a 13BB shove UTG on the button with 77. Thanks in advance.

 

Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1500 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

SlumKid (BB): BB = 49.8, t597774
galfatal (UTG): BB = 12.7, t152830
Dlouhas009 (UTG+1): BB = 9.5, t114560
zLex949 (UTG+2): BB = 37.8, t454095
beginner138 (MP1): BB = 14.4, t172396
Mo0rHuHn (MP2): BB = 5.5, t66453
vlad1320 (CO): BB = 26.6, t319717
Hero (BTN): BB = 26.2, t314444
nait_soezen! (SB): BB = 32.3, t387673

Pre Flop: (t31500) Hero is BTN with 7 of spades 7 of hearts
galfatal raises to t151330 all in, 5 folds, Hero raises to t312944 all in, 2 folds

Flop: (t334160) Q of hearts K of clubs K of spades (2 players – 2 are all in)

Turn: (t334160) Q of clubs (2 players – 2 are all in)

River: (t334160) 3 of hearts (2 players – 2 are all in)

bennymacca
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March 15, 2012 - 8:50 pm
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pretty borderline imo. 

 

13bb is still enough for the UTG player to pass through the blinds 1 more time. if UTG had 9bb i would be much more inclined to reship

but i am not sure how light a standard tag would be in this spot. if it was me with 13bb, off the top of my head i would probably ship 66+, A9s+, ATo+, KQo+. 

 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,366,418,592  games     0.022 secs    62,109,936,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied
Hand 0: 	55.949%  	55.36% 	00.59% 	     756428844 	  8074806.00   { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 	44.051%  	43.46% 	00.59% 	     593840136 	  8074806.00   { 77 }
 
 
pretty sure that 77 is right on the borderline. I would probably fold here because 26bb is likely an average stack in this tourney,
 if i had 15bb i would probably get it in. 
Tiny_Molester
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March 15, 2012 - 9:35 pm
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Definately not an optimal reship. It is really hard to concieve of any range where you are > 50% equity (I personally put something like AA-22,AK-AT,KQ,A9s-A8s,A5s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s which is much wider then the average opponent).Against my prescribed range you have 50.3% equity in the hand, so we can quantitatively determine the cEV via the following calculation:

EV(Reship) = .503(15.2) – .497(12.575) = +1.4bb

Using Bennymacca’s range for villain the calculation boils down to:

EV(Reship using Benny’s range) = .44(15.2) – .56(12.565) = -0.35bb

So I think in actual reality the play is very close to neutral cEV but is definately -$EV because we haven’t accounted for the fact that the two people behind you wake up with a calling hand (which assuming TT+, AQs+, AKo+ happens 8% of the time). In these stages of the tournament, you should be planning your strategic options around the utility of your chips; with 26bb there exists far better options then gambling in a super marginal spot.

dawhiteninja
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March 15, 2012 - 9:39 pm
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TYTY excellent feedback. I knew it felt bad, this all makes sense.

bennymacca
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March 15, 2012 - 11:25 pm
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Please post more TinyMolester. slightly disturbing name though

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praetor
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March 15, 2012 - 11:45 pm
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  Even though he is short stacked UTG ship usually means they are holding an ace and KT,KQ,KJ along with some high pocket pairs. Unless I had a read on him or a much larger stack, I would lay it down.

"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."

isaacjames
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March 16, 2012 - 11:33 am
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Agree with all it's pretty marginal.  The problem is that you are always flipping at best and a big dog at worst since 66-22 are not that often shoving from UTG w 13bbs at these stakes (or any).  And you only have 26 bbs so this is for 1/2 your stack. and you would be crippled if you lose while only getting to 39 bbs if you win.  Big downside smaller upside situation here.

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