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I'm fresh off a bad beat in the MicroMillions #03 to claim 700th. Can someone please comfort me by telling me this was the right play? The whole table was playing pretty tight. This is a standard re-ship right? From a 13BB shove UTG on the button with 77. Thanks in advance.
Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1500 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
SlumKid (BB): BB = 49.8, t597774
galfatal (UTG): BB = 12.7, t152830
Dlouhas009 (UTG+1): BB = 9.5, t114560
zLex949 (UTG+2): BB = 37.8, t454095
beginner138 (MP1): BB = 14.4, t172396
Mo0rHuHn (MP2): BB = 5.5, t66453
vlad1320 (CO): BB = 26.6, t319717
Hero (BTN): BB = 26.2, t314444
nait_soezen! (SB): BB = 32.3, t387673
Pre Flop: (t31500) Hero is BTN with 7
7
galfatal raises to t151330 all in, 5 folds, Hero raises to t312944 all in, 2 folds
Flop: (t334160) Q K
K (2 players – 2 are all in)
Turn: (t334160) Q (2 players – 2 are all in)
River: (t334160) 3 (2 players – 2 are all in)
October 6, 2010
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pretty borderline imo.
13bb is still enough for the UTG player to pass through the blinds 1 more time. if UTG had 9bb i would be much more inclined to reship
but i am not sure how light a standard tag would be in this spot. if it was me with 13bb, off the top of my head i would probably ship 66+, A9s+, ATo+, KQo+.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,366,418,592 games 0.022 secs 62,109,936,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.949% 55.36% 00.59% 756428844 8074806.00 { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 44.051% 43.46% 00.59% 593840136 8074806.00 { 77 }
pretty sure that 77 is right on the borderline. I would probably fold here because 26bb is likely an average stack in this tourney,
if i had 15bb i would probably get it in.
Definately not an optimal reship. It is really hard to concieve of any range where you are > 50% equity (I personally put something like AA-22,AK-AT,KQ,A9s-A8s,A5s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s which is much wider then the average opponent).Against my prescribed range you have 50.3% equity in the hand, so we can quantitatively determine the cEV via the following calculation:
EV(Reship) = .503(15.2) – .497(12.575) = +1.4bb
Using Bennymacca’s range for villain the calculation boils down to:
EV(Reship using Benny’s range) = .44(15.2) – .56(12.565) = -0.35bb
So I think in actual reality the play is very close to neutral cEV but is definately -$EV because we haven’t accounted for the fact that the two people behind you wake up with a calling hand (which assuming TT+, AQs+, AKo+ happens 8% of the time). In these stages of the tournament, you should be planning your strategic options around the utility of your chips; with 26bb there exists far better options then gambling in a super marginal spot.
TYTY excellent feedback. I knew it felt bad, this all makes sense.
October 6, 2010
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Please post more TinyMolester. slightly disturbing name though
June 22, 2010
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Even though he is short stacked UTG ship usually means they are holding an ace and KT,KQ,KJ along with some high pocket pairs. Unless I had a read on him or a much larger stack, I would lay it down.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
Agree with all it's pretty marginal. The problem is that you are always flipping at best and a big dog at worst since 66-22 are not that often shoving from UTG w 13bbs at these stakes (or any). And you only have 26 bbs so this is for 1/2 your stack. and you would be crippled if you lose while only getting to 39 bbs if you win. Big downside smaller upside situation here.
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