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Is this a good fold? Pretty sure i am beat here with top pair top kicker...
manxmann78
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October 2, 2014 - 9:52 am
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I should point out that i had a note on this guy from playing him previously that i should 3 bet him in position as he plays a lot of pots oop.
 
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 467197284 *****
$75/$150 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 02 10 2014 20:29:02
Tournament #62231459 $13.75 + $1.25 - Table #16 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: VALERA30CM ( $7,882 )
Seat 2: shym95 ( $9,323 )
Seat 3: og2012 ( $3,665 )
Seat 5: TagiiL ( $2,160 )
Seat 6: will_luck ( $2,525 )
Seat 7: manxmann78 ( $4,825 )
Seat 9: Yong_is_back ( $1,553 )
Seat 10: skib3n ( $6,465 )
Yong_is_back posts small blind [$75]
skib3n posts big blind [$150]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to manxmann78 [ Ah, Jd ]
VALERA30CM folds
shym95 raises [$300]
og2012 folds
TagiiL folds
will_luck folds
manxmann78 raises [$800]
Yong_is_back folds
skib3n folds
shym95 calls [$500]
** Dealing flop ** [ 3d, Jc, 7h ]
shym95 checks
manxmann78 bets [$912]
shym95 calls [$912]
** Dealing turn ** [ 8c ]
shym95 checks
manxmann78 bets [$1,350]
shym95 raises [$7,611]
manxmann78 ????



Foucault

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October 2, 2014 - 12:27 pm
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Don't you only have like 1600 left in your stack, such that you're getting like 4:1 on a call? I don't think you should fold this at that point. If you don't think you can feel good about getting the rest of your stack in on the turn, then don't bet the turn. Bet-folding the turn really isn't an option with your stack and a hand this strong.

Great note to have on Villain, btw, and this is a very good example of how to take advantage of such a player, results notwithstanding.

manxmann78
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October 6, 2014 - 7:22 am
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Hey Andrew thanks for the insight. While I know you are right and I should have thought about checking bet or at least my bet sizing on the turn and what my plan was for the river or for when he raises me, I am curious to know if you or others ever think it is right to lay down a hand like this if you think they are never bluffing? Is my tournament life worth saving here with about 12BBs behind me.

NeverAA
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October 6, 2014 - 12:05 pm
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Hey man,

This happens to me almost all the time. Usually against fish. They call my 3bet with hands you cannot even imagine. Then when I hit a hand like this(top, top), I feel i am strong enough but then the same thing happens. Check-call, check all in.

And Im like, alright, then most of the time I see the turn helped a draw, or they completed some awkward 2 pair.

Also the problem with these guys are you cannot scare them off preflop. And when they call you pre, you put them on a strong range, however, you get surprised with what they get in with in the first place.

In your spot though, I am going for it as played. I also need some advice on how to handle those people.

Foucault

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October 6, 2014 - 3:45 pm
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Manx,

If you’re getting 4:1, you should fold if you think you won’t win at least 20% of the time. Or a bit more than that, even, given that it’s the last of your chips. The last of your chips are the most valuable, so you should definitely not just round 12BB down to 0 and say what’s the point of even trying to save these.

The problem with folding here is that you’d have to be pretty damn sure your opponent wouldn’t play KJ or TT or A7 or 98 this way. It’s awfully hard to make a hand better than yours, and you don’t have to win very often to make calling better than folding.

manxmann78
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October 7, 2014 - 9:44 am
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Thanks Andrew. As always that makes perfect sense. I am in no way a math guy (I have BB on my HUD to help me easily know who has what) so I rarely do the math and just make rough calculations. Your comments however make that a pretty simple decision and I agree I think I am good about 20% of the time or better. Thanks mate!

manxmann78
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October 7, 2014 - 9:48 am
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Hey neverAA
It can be tricky in the micros to range people. I try and keep good notes when people do crazy shit and find that helpful when I see them again. You just gotta make good decisions and don’t get too Tilty when they show up on the river with a random straight or two pair hand you just never see coming.

Foucault

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October 7, 2014 - 12:43 pm
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When you can’t figure out your opponent’s range, focus on your own. Try not to call off with the bottom of your range nor to fold the top of it unless you have a good read you are exploiting. I think Villain’s shove here risks roughly the size of the pot. He’s risking one unit to win one unit, which means he’s laying himself 1:1 odds and that you shouldn’t fold more than half of your range to this shove without a read.

topherloaf
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October 7, 2014 - 2:07 pm
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I think a sizeable portion of villians range is single pairs with gutshot / flush draw combos.  Like 7 10, J 9, 8 9.  How would you play Q 10 of clubs here?  I think you have to trust your read that he's seeing perhaps too many flops.  The 8 of clubs seems like it connected, but unless he's flopped a set or gotten crazy with 9 10, it's hard to beat top top.  Like Andrew said, before we bet turn we should be prepared for the action we may face.  If the goal of our bet is to push out draws, we should know that some of the best draws will sense some fold equity and perhaps correctly jam.  That said, if I'm villian with a made hand, I like a raise size that could induce hero with AA-AJ.  We never want to force an overpair out with the straight or a set. I call off.

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