HPT Daytonna, $1650 buy-in, Day Two, down to 11 players, Final Table Bubble.  Action is hand for hand.   

Is this a convincing bluff to you?

Day 1 and 2 I had been playing a very LAG style, winning most of my chips from 3 betting light, raising frequently, and playing very few hands to showdown.  However, about an orbit prior to this hand I had stacked someone in a set over set situation where I had KK vs. JJ on a KJ3 board.  This had catapulted me to over 1 Mil in chips.  After that, I had been using my now presumably tight image (the only big hand that I had that went to showdown was top set) and the fact that I was a chip leader to run over the table even more, winning several pots without showdown.  I was now up to 1.5mil and I am the chip leader with roughly 6mil in tournament chips total. 

One defect that I have is the “Halo Effect”.  When I'm running well and playing well I tend to become even more LAGGY, sometimes even with a 60%+ VPIP.  If anything I “reverse tilt” where I go from LAG to full-on maniac when I'm the chip leader vs. really become a NIT when I've lost a few.  I recognize this problem in myself, but sometimes it sneaks up on me.

This hand took place against Cong Pham, who plays a very LAG style, and is a very successful tournament player.  He was just coming off a major WPT win.  He was the only person standing up to me and was 2nd in chips.  In a sense I want to avoid confrontations with him, but in another sense I want to cripple my only real competition.  He starts with 800K.  His VPIP is probably around 33% although that is merely an estimate as this is live.

Blinds are 5K/10K with a 500 ante.  It is folded to him in MP and he raises to 25K, which is his typical bet size.

I have J10 in the BB.  I have been 3 betting a lot and I know if I 3 bet here Villian will 4 bet.  I know this for a near certainty based on my extensive knowledge of my opponent so I don't consider 3 betting.  I'm not folding either.  I know there may be players out there advocating folding against the only other big stack OOP, but I will never fold to a small raise with a moderate strength hand like this in the BB where calling will close the action, and I just have insane odds.  Never folding here, ever.

Flop is 92K giving me a gut shot and a backdoor flush draw.  I check to the Villian, who has cbet every flop he has been involved in, and he cbets to 30K here.  That gives me absolutely no information about his hand but I don't think he hit the flop.  I just sensed that the small cbet was a cheap attempt at inducing a fold.  I also have a gutshot.  I'm not saying I would call just to chase a gutshot but I would float with nothing here given my read and bet the turn regardless of what came, so I definitely flat with a draw.

Turn is 8, a really good card for me, giving me an open-ender and a legit club draw.  I instantly bet 100K and he instantly calls.

Now I realize that I made a mistake here bc if I had a hand I would have thought a little more about the amount I should raise and also raising 100K precisely is sort of a tell.  So I tell myself that on the river I will think about it a little longer, really think about how much I would bet for value on the river if I had a hand, and really try to represent exactly what I would do if I was betting for value.  I put him on a 9 at best so I'm betting any river.

River is a 5, a complete miss. 

Now I really have to think about the size that will get him to fold.  I really want to make sure I'd bet the exact same amount as if I was betting for value with a King.  I may not lead out with a King on the turn, but I might, so I think that a bluff here is semi-believable.  I realize it is a dry board so a bluff is somewhat less likely to work, but I really strongly believe my opponent has nothing.  His nothing beats my nothing though, so I HAVE to bet.  I'm not going to give up by checking.  I also want to think about it for a moment, because I'd think about my bet sizing if I was betting for value.  I end up betting 225K, which is what I would bet for value.  If I was betting for value my bet would be smallish, but not too small.  I'd also want to give my opponent the impression that he can call and still have a stack to work with.  Would I take this line with a King?  Yes I would.  With a pair of Kings specifically, I may call the flop bc there's not too many scare cards.  I wouldn't want to 3 bet my opponent off his hand, so I would flat. I would then bet on the turn once a  comes to prevent my opponent from getting odds on a possible straight or flush draw.  I would then bet river for value.  I'm trying to represent a King that wasn't strong enough to 3 bet pre, but is now trying to get value.

As far as my Villian's thoughts, I think he puts me on a 9 or a lower, weak pair on the flop.  He knows I'm capable of floating, but I don't do it often enough for him to believe I'm floating here.  I think that he thinks I would raise with a King on the flop.  He would be wrong, but given my aggressive 3 betting in previous hands, he has to believe I would do that here.  Once I lead on the turn my hand looks weak to him though.  I would never lead with a mid strength pair like that.  I think the reason for his instant call on the turn is that he now thinks that I floated with air and am now trying to steal.  I think he calls to see if I will continue on the river.  Once I continue on the river though he has to start to believe that I may have a hand, right?  Yet no hand to him makes sense.  I would 3 bet with a King on the flop, I wouldn't lead with a 9 on the river, but would I really fire two barrels on a float?  Although bluffing is certainly in my range, I would also play some winning hands this way, and my river bet is now 1/3 the pot.  He has to strongly consider that I have a hand here right?  

Villian seems very annoyed.  He thinks for about 5 minutes (really) and that confirms my read that he has at best a small pair.  Then his expression changes and now he looks more confused than annoyed, which means my bluff wasn't convicing enough, and is really bad for me.  A lot of players will call if they are confused, simply to see your hand.  Yet this bet is 1/3 of his stack so I just can't see him calling.  Based on how long he is thinking, I now believe he is considering calling with just Ace high or possibly a 2 or 5 as I strongly believe my opponent would snap call with a pair or 9's or better given his tendencies and his perception of my tendencies.  He just keeps talking to himself and looking at me with a confused look on his face until someone finally calls the clock on him.

Villian….?????

Will post results later.