So let’s start with your first decision pre flop. Al Bueno min raised from middle position and he doesn’t seem like his VPIP and PFR numbers have been out of line. So he probably has something but it is too soon to know just how strong he is. That said, your suited AK should be ahead of his range. Rosa Parks just flats with only 8.33 BB to start the hand, which seems strange. Rosa should be folding or jamming. So the question is, is this a good player getting tricky with a monster or is it a bad player who doesn’t understand shoving charts. I think this is a low stakes tourney so I’d lean toward flatting being a terrible decision on Rosa’s part, but you are in a better position to know that from game flow. So I think AK is probably well ahead of Rosa’s range. So now your decision is how much to raise. A squeeze play is clearly warranted with AK after a raise and a flat. But is your 31 BB jam the best line, or are you better off just raising 6.5-7 BB? I think a 6.5-7 BB 3 bet looks much stronger than a 31 BB jam. Rosa seems priced in to get it all in either way at this point, but which bet sizing is most ideal against Al Bueno? I lean toward a raise rather than a jam, but I suppose a case can be made for the jam since you haven’t actually made a hand yet with ace king.

As it happens, given what al Bueno had and given what the flop turned out to be I think it was all going in the middle at some point whether it is pre flop or post flop. Although a good opponent might be able to fold KQ suited to your 31 BB jam, I suspect if the stakes are low then Al Bueno is calling as he did. If you only 3 bet 6.5-7 BB and got the call from Al Bueno it’s all going in when you flop top pair, top kicker and he flops top pair, second best kicker plus the gutshot. Again, maybe a good player can get away from his hand, but my suspicion is he sees this flop and wants to get it in. If you raise to 6.5-7 BB and then Al Bueno had four bet jammed you are behind AA and KK, you’re ahead of AQ suited, and you are flipping against any other pair. Would he four-bet jam with a range wider than this? I can’t say without knowing game flow. My guess is that with what you put in on your original three bet and the strength of your hand you would be calling a four bet jam.

I wouldn’t be too results oriented here. You got it in good against both players and they both got there with Rosa flopping the nuts and Al Bueno coming from behind to hit the gunshot on the turn.

They got lucky, you got unlucky. That’s poker. As I said, I think an argument can be made for three-bet raising rather than jamming pre flop, but I’m not sure that would have kept you from losing almost all your chips (you have Al Bueno slightly covered) on a later street given the run out of cards. If you had just three bet normal pre flop, you would be way behind Rosa on the main pot after the flop, but you would have been ahead of Al Bueno but I think the side pot would have become more significant anyway and then he would have sucked out on you on the turn.