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October 21, 2012
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Say you have QJ and raise. You get 3 callers and the flop comes Kxx.
If anyone had AK, they’ll likely raise.
The most likely Ks they have that could call 2 streets would be KQ and KJ, but you have blockers to those hands. So I think you should double barrel most turns to get smaller Ks to fold.
I typically will cbet here and then fold if I didnt improve on the turn. It never occurred to me that a lot of villains will float here with air and even the ones with weak Ks (more combos of these thanks to our blockers) will have a hard time calling another barrel.
Using this same logic, having QJ on a KQx flop would be stronger than it looks on the surface as well.
Not saying that this makes QJ a premium because I know the value of having one blocker is not that important. However, it does matter and I want to consider all the edges I can get.
May 30, 2012
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im not saying its stronger, but it does hcange the weighting of their hands, in the Kxx board described we have a few backdoor draws which improve our equity but we arent going to be able to make and Kx hand fold with two barrels, but we can fold out 1010-77 type hands that wil call the cbet with a double barrel, plus floats and A high hands.
QJ on a QKx board is actually a little worse because there are now more combos of Kx and less Qx that we beat, plus AQ KA KQ KJ K10 are still there whilst we only beat Q10, and any turn card that helps us completes some draws.
October 21, 2012
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Do you think Kx folds to 3 barrels? I would have a hard time calling down OOP with a Kxs I defended with unless I had a flush draw with it.
I am going on a few assumptions here so I guess we can say this only applies when raising QJ from LP and we expect villain to 3bet AQ+. That removes those hands from villains range if he just flats pre and the KQx board comes. We can also discount KQ and KJ a little due to our blockers. That leaves KT and QT as the highest represented combos in the range.
Good point about turn cards that seem good for us may complete some draws for villain. I would only count Js and Ts in that range since As and 9s are not that good for us and Qs are not good for villain. Ks are also good for us as it makes it more unlikely that villain holds a K.
The only villains that Js and Ts help are those that may have floated with AJ, AT, T9, J9. They will probably let us know if they hit a straight by calling or raising the turn barrel. If they miss the straight, I think villains would have a hard time floating two barrels with just a gut shot and third pair. If they also picked up a flush draw, then they could though.
Seems like you would need the perfect storm of raising in LP vs villains that wont just flat AQ+ and a rainbow flop. That seems like a lot so maybe that's why I never heard this discussed. It was a fun thought though.
Maybe if we had QJs it would work better because some turns that give them a flush draw or completes their straight would give us a made flush.
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