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Poker Stars $50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds – 9 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
ximosa (BB): BB = 38.1, t7628
CardBOT-300a (UTG): BB = 15.0, t2995
skratte (UTG+1): BB = 64.5, t12905
AaronBeen (UTG+2): BB = 30.1, t6010
adam eterno (MP1): BB = 31.8, t6363
ShwshnkRedmp (MP2): BB = 27.6, t5529
BWFCLEE (CO): BB = 19.8, t3950
getheo (BTN): BB = 80.7, t16141
GustavBang (SB): BB = 72.6, t14524
Pre Flop: (t300) getheo is BTN with K
A
5 folds, BWFCLEE calls t200, getheo raises to t800, GustavBang calls t700, ximosa raises to t3000, 1 fold
getheo????
Nope Im shipping, he has to think your opening wide and AK would be the top of your range.
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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never folding in this spot. look to get it in here. its the excact action you are looking for glgl
June 11, 2010
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I'd ship it on this one I think the best (and most probable outcome) is that ximosa will fold and you will take down the big pot. If he doesn't fold my feeling (based on general random player) is that you usually have him dominated (he shows up with AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJs) or you are flipping (77-TT). I don't think he would reraise as substantially (almost 4x your bet) with a stronger hand (JJ+, AK+) and this smells a lot like a re-raise to cap the action to me. I see a lot of players put in this type of raise when they like their hand, but not enough to want to play a pot postflop with it. I don't like flat-calling here as there is way to much risk that you are going to get put into a weird spot post-flop. The other contributing factor on this one is ximosa could be make a move a small percentage of the time (something like 10%) to pick up what is out there as there is a limp, raise (which could be light) and a flat (~20% increase in his stack size with what looks like weak action).
I also think getting it in here can potentially serve to give you a really strong table image for chip accumulation especially if ximosa calls and you have him crushed, you will look like you are willing to get your chips in and defend your opens (since the impression is that they are not light). What did you end up doing here?
1. Get it in
2. Win the flip……(or maybe even just hold against AQ)
3. Crush this thing
4. Spend profits on hookers and blow??????
I'm not saying that getting it in here is bad, don't get me wrong, but I think the ranges are off. Blinds are 1/2 no antes. Hero didn't open, he iso'd a 20bb open limper then Villain 3b half of his stack cold. Ximosa is never folding, and while I think flipping is a good possibility, I doubt we have him dominated very often. Unless there is a lot of history here, I doubt there is any levelling going on here, and I am sure that Ximosa wants a call here. That doesn't mean he HAS to have a monster, but I doubt heavily that AJ, AT, KQ and KJ show up here in anything higher than 4.40s very often (don't play 50's very often, but I am assuming). JJ+, and maybe AQs+ if you talk me into him having any combo of AQ. I would also disagree that this is the exact action that I'm looking for when I'm on a very comfy stack and someone that is showing huge strength is begging me to put in half of it when he had 0 invested.
I would think he is very strong or at least representing it pretty well.
jhammond10 said:
I'm not saying that getting it in here is bad, don't get me wrong, but I think the ranges are off. Blinds are 1/2 no antes. Hero didn't open, he iso'd a 20bb open limper then Villain 3b half of his stack cold. Ximosa is never folding, and while I think flipping is a good possibility, I doubt we have him dominated very often. Unless there is a lot of history here, I doubt there is any levelling going on here, and I am sure that Ximosa wants a call here. That doesn't mean he HAS to have a monster, but I doubt heavily that AJ, AT, KQ and KJ show up here in anything higher than 4.40s very often (don't play 50's very often, but I am assuming). JJ+, and maybe AQs+ if you talk me into him having any combo of AQ. I would also disagree that this is the exact action that I'm looking for when I'm on a very comfy stack and someone that is showing huge strength is begging me to put in half of it when he had 0 invested.
I would think he is very strong or at least representing it pretty well.
I think his range is wider here than JJ+ AQs+. His three bet is large imo…..either he is bad at bet sizing or he is trying to protect his hand and get us to laydown. I don't think AA/KK 3bet that large because they are going to be 3betting for value here……I think hands like 99+ and AQ make that larger sized 3bet here trying to take this pot down now……I'm at work and don't have pokerstove, but I'm assuming AKo is playing pretty well against a 99+, AQ+ (and I would even throw in the random complete air here that insta fold to our shove. Ximosa is in the BB so his 3bet range is widened here IMO as he probably knows our button open is wide as well. Luckily for us we are at the top of our range and I think it is weak for us to just assume he is at the top of his BB 3bet range. I think this is a great spot to get it in as I am fairly certain we are seeing a folf here…..sometimes he snaps us off with JJ or QQ……other times he looks us up with his 99's or AQ here I think
Would like to here some more info on this one……btn vs blinds top of our range and deep stacks make for an interesting dynamic
Great thread and hand by the way. I have been thinking about this one since last night, first thing that popped into my mind this morning after coffee and cigarrette.
I was thinking, lets take ourselves out of Hero's shoes and put on villains shoes for a minute. Take bluffs completely out of our range. Put ourselves in the BB with AA or KK with this exact action. What do we do? Pot is 2000, and the two deepest stacked guys at the table are showing high interest in the pot already. We have 3.5x the pot left as it stands now. What should our raise size be with our monsters? Whatever it is, you are going to be putting in almost 1/3 of your stack.
The raise size that villain chose would give him exactly 2:1 to call the 4bet from either of the big stacks… wonder if this was intentional?
The more the villain is telling this story, the more believable it gets. Risk/reward?
Come on people, don't fold AK with these stacks. I have seen people done crazier things than cold 3bet folding.
He may think you are isoing lightly and decide to grab the pot.
July 3, 2010
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Wow that raise looks strong… doubt I'm folding but I'm assigning a pretty damn tight range to him unless I have history with him or look him up on OPR and see he's a massive fish.
That said I ship and beat his QQ. Or I cry when he has KK or AA and we're coolered.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Why would he bet 3k with AA? Even with a range of JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ we are flipping (we have 49% equity). Given the money in the pot and the fold equity I call all day long. I think there are lesser pairs and weaker aces in his range to some extent but I'm willing to bet this is TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, AK and you have 53% equity vs that range.
July 3, 2010
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RonFezBuddy said:
Why would he bet 3k with AA? Even with a range of JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ we are flipping (we have 49% equity). Given the money in the pot and the fold equity I call all day long. I think there are lesser pairs and weaker aces in his range to some extent but I'm willing to bet this is TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, AK and you have 53% equity vs that range.
I thought he might 3 bet KK and AA a little bigger here due to the ISO raise and flat – he wouldn't want to 3 bet too small and potentially see both people call and see a flop plus he's out of position being in the BB.
It's a big 3 bet, though, I agree.
FkCoolers said:
RonFezBuddy said:
Why would he bet 3k with AA? Even with a range of JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ we are flipping (we have 49% equity). Given the money in the pot and the fold equity I call all day long. I think there are lesser pairs and weaker aces in his range to some extent but I'm willing to bet this is TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, AK and you have 53% equity vs that range.
I thought he might 3 bet KK and AA a little bigger here due to the ISO raise and flat – he wouldn't want to 3 bet too small and potentially see both people call and see a flop plus he's out of position being in the BB.It's a big 3 bet, though, I agree.
^^ What I was thinking.
And for RFB, The dead money is significant, but how much fold equity are we calculating here. Obviously it's non-zero, but is it enough to tip the scales at all? Whether I went with the AK or not here, I wouldn't be banking on him folding ever.
June 11, 2010
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jhammond10 said:
I'm not saying that getting it in here is bad, don't get me wrong, but I think the ranges are off. Blinds are 1/2 no antes. Hero didn't open, he iso'd a 20bb open limper then Villain 3b half of his stack cold. Ximosa is never folding, and while I think flipping is a good possibility, I doubt we have him dominated very often. Unless there is a lot of history here, I doubt there is any levelling going on here, and I am sure that Ximosa wants a call here. That doesn't mean he HAS to have a monster, but I doubt heavily that AJ, AT, KQ and KJ show up here in anything higher than 4.40s very often (don't play 50's very often, but I am assuming). JJ+, and maybe AQs+ if you talk me into him having any combo of AQ. I would also disagree that this is the exact action that I'm looking for when I'm on a very comfy stack and someone that is showing huge strength is begging me to put in half of it when he had 0 invested.
I would think he is very strong or at least representing it pretty well.
I have been thinking about this response a lot and I can't come around on this one. I think that the size of his bet is telling me that he doesn't want callers. The thought that he is being sneaking and laying exactly 2:1 odds is interesting, but how many guys are going to be that clever since it relies on his opponents figuring it out while they are analyzing the action. I think that the poor sizing on the 3bet is screaming that he is going to come up short when we call. If the 3bet comes in around t2400-t2700 I am a lot more nervous about what he is showing up with since it feels a lot more like he is trying to get me to board a train to valuetown.
As a side question what (if anything) changes if Ximosa jams? I have been thinking about that one too and I think a shove makes his perspective range cloudier since it looks a lot more like an isolation move. In that case I definetly think AA and KK come solidly into his range and then I have a much harder time pulling the trigger.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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The fold equity isn't huge but is there. Let's put that aside for a second and look at the EV of shoving.
If you assume a range of JJ+, AQ+ your hand equity is 49%. Let's look at what equity you need in order for this to be +EV.
Assuming Gustavo folds, if you shove and ximoso calls it costs you an additional 6828 to win a pot of 15956. This means you only need 42% hand equity (6828/15956) to be breakeven here. It is a very +EV play to shove here. If you add a few weird hands in his range + fold equity it is overwhelmingly +EV.
You just should not pass up spots like this to chip up just because he “could” have a monster. If he does you just shrug it off and go to the next tourney. If you are passing up spots like this you will have a very hard time ever accumulating HUGE stacks that can drive you deep in the tourney.
Think to yourself…what would big dog do?
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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TBH…I think you guys should always be doing this math when trying to figure out hands like this. It's a pretty clear answer if you feel comfortable with the ranges and once you know this math it opens up so much more knowledge.
my 2 cents. 🙂
RonFezBuddy said:
TBH…I think you guys should always be doing this math when trying to figure out hands like this. It's a pretty clear answer if you feel comfortable with the ranges and once you know this math it opens up so much more knowledge.
my 2 cents. 🙂
Agreed. Thanks RFB
RonFezBuddy said:
The fold equity isn't huge but is there. Let's put that aside for a second and look at the EV of shoving.
If you assume a range of JJ+, AQ+ your hand equity is 49%. Let's look at what equity you need in order for this to be +EV.
Assuming Gustavo folds, if you shove and ximoso calls it costs you an additional 6828 to win a pot of 15956. This means you only need 42% hand equity (6828/15956) to be breakeven here. It is a very +EV play to shove here. If you add a few weird hands in his range + fold equity it is overwhelmingly +EV.
You just should not pass up spots like this to chip up just because he “could” have a monster. If he does you just shrug it off and go to the next tourney. If you are passing up spots like this you will have a very hard time ever accumulating HUGE stacks that can drive you deep in the tourney.
Think to yourself…what would big dog do?
I guess what it boils down to then is what range you put him on here. Without history, I look at this as a big hand as I said before. I don't even like AQ being in there at all with that action. I think it looks like a big pair. Initially I thought QQ+, but if he is doing this with QQ, then I would imagine he's doing this with JJ as well most of the time. Of course nobody folds AK, so we'll give him those combos as well.
If that is the case, this becomes a fold as you are only getting just under 40%. JJ+ only, and it gets worse @ 35%. I understand that you don't want to pass up edges in tournaments, but when the decision is very close we had better be sure about the ranges as we can see here, only taking out the combo's of AQ has a dramatic effect on the EV of the decision. Good stuff though!
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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100% agree. It's all about the range. While I can see your argument for getting rid of AQ think about if you had AQ in his shoes. Are you folding? Doesn't it seem really weak to fold AQ to a guy who's isoing limpers? What about TT, isn't it a little weak to just fold it here? And don't forget the random bluffy nonsense in his range.
RonFezBuddy said:
100% agree. It's all about the range. While I can see your argument for getting rid of AQ think about if you had AQ in his shoes. Are you folding? Doesn't it seem really weak to fold AQ to a guy who's isoing limpers? What about TT, isn't it a little weak to just fold it here? And don't forget the random bluffy nonsense in his range.
I think I am dumping AQ a lot of times (weaksauce??). IMO folding>raising>calling with AQ in this spot. If you call you get all the joy of playing a bloated pot OOP most likely 4 ways weeee! It seems weak to fold the AQ to an iso'er, but the smoothie behind him helps that decision along. Obv all this changes if we know anything about the button and sb tendancies. Turning TT into 33 seems better than folding and would be what I would do from the bb since a call from me with whatever I have brings in the original limper.
With AQ, 3b and fold to 4b seems ridiculous, and 3b with the intention of getting it in 40bbs deep seems seems spazzy as well. This early in the tourney with this chain of action, it sure seems like folding AQ wouldn't give me much heartache… especially if I had any doubt as to how bang on I was with the ranges involved.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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I think AQ is gold against your button iso range. so much in the pot to just grab if you fold anyways. I'd expect you to iso with 66+, ATs+ or even worse. That's why i'm shoving. You have to fold so much. If you call I have equity anyways.
July 3, 2010
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His range is strong because he's OOP and it's so early in the tournament. Doubt anyone is getting spewy here with medium pairs and bluff hands like T8s. If he is, good job to him I guess because he looks super strong here.
Range I give him here is JJ, QQ, AK, AA, and KK.
Leaning toward JJ and QQ here.
As I said I'm not folding here but I don't think his range is very wide at all.
July 3, 2010
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Plus his ABI isn't that high. It's like $12 – this MTT is def. on the higher side of what he plays so doubt he gets super creative and bluffy in this spot. If I'm in the hand with someone like Raszi or Moorman1 I have a totally different mindset. This one is opponent driven.
bottom line here is that his squeeze range is just so far behind your actual hand. This is a shove 100 percent of the time.
its half your stack if you're wrong…
but you're wrong such a small % of the time, so the only option with him having 38bbs is 4-bet/calling. Do you think he really flats TT or AQs here?
RonFezBuddy said:
The fold equity isn't huge but is there. Let's put that aside for a second and look at the EV of shoving.
If you assume a range of JJ+, AQ+ your hand equity is 49%. Let's look at what equity you need in order for this to be +EV.
Assuming Gustavo folds, if you shove and ximoso calls it costs you an additional 6828 to win a pot of 15956. This means you only need 42% hand equity (6828/15956) to be breakeven here. It is a very +EV play to shove here. If you add a few weird hands in his range + fold equity it is overwhelmingly +EV.
You just should not pass up spots like this to chip up just because he “could” have a monster. If he does you just shrug it off and go to the next tourney. If you are passing up spots like this you will have a very hard time ever accumulating HUGE stacks that can drive you deep in the tourney.
Think to yourself…what would big dog do?
this a million times over.
and i can't imagine villain is just folding or flatting with TT/AQs or even 99 given the positions and the action.
there are very rare instances to fold AK preflop, and this is not one of them.
The get-it-in responses to this thread are on target. Villain's reraise range here is much looser than some are giving credit for given the opener's button position. Obviously 88+/ATs+/maybe KJs+ are all possibilities and even some air (though less likely considering villain is playing well above his average ABI) to squeeze.
This is a push almost always. I say almost because if, based on your observations and knowledge of the small blind, you suspect the small blind is not coming along if you call, then calling is better than pushing. If you think just calling gets you heads-up then it is better because of the small chance the BB doesn't like the flop and check-folds to your push. You will never fold to his c-bet regardless of the flop (even 3 of a suit you don't have) and there will be rare instances (but enough to increase your equity) that villain just hates that you flatted (“He must have a monster”) and C/Fs to your flop push. If you think the small blind might somehow think he is “priced in” if
you call then you need to push to iso. Usually you can't be sure enough of the SB's intentions so the push is correct.
In summary: 90% push/10% call (if SB is folding here)/0% fold.
-Matty
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