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is hero's hand worth 3 streets?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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March 22, 2015 - 12:14 pm
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#Game No : 519574408
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 519574408 *****
$25/$50 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 
Tournament #67472217 $3.60 + $0.40 - Table #11 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: wolliebeer ( $2,137 )
Seat 2: RTAllIn ( $3,303 )
Seat 3: joker74581 ( $994 )
Seat 4: ERn_san ( $2,965 )
Seat 5: ignis555 ( $2,765 )
Seat 6: MANXY2 ( $7,654 )
Seat 7: PR0sperouS ( $3,075 )
Seat 9: HRO_Knaller ( $3,330 )
Seat 10: london_ace ( $2,865 )
ignis555 posts small blind [$25]
MANXY2 posts big blind [$50]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ Jheart, Adiamond ]
PR0sperouS folds
HRO_Knaller folds
london_ace raises [$100]
wolliebeer folds
RTAllIn calls [$100]
joker74581 folds
ERn_san calls [$100]
ignis555 folds
MANXY2 folds
** Dealing flop ** [ Kheart, 5heart, Aspade ]   total pot - $375
london_ace bets [$187]
RTAllIn calls [$187]
ERn_san folds
** Dealing turn ** [ 6diamond ]        $749
london_ace bets [$561]
RTAllIn calls [$561]
** Dealing river ** [ 7diamond ]
london_ace checks
RTAllIn checks





hey
 
 
V was new to the table so no reads.
 
I decided to frontload my value knowing that i can at least get 2 streets here, the river does not change much 
i was unsure if i should bet for value though? to get value from AT maybe A9s , i doubt Kx is calling 3 streets.
There's also a lot of missed draws , so my plan was to c/c river. would this be a mistake? i dont think v has a monsters
in his range.
 
 
 
Kalculater
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March 22, 2015 - 6:36 pm
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I think the flop and turn are clear bets because of the amount of draws that will call 2 streets (flush and/or straight). Villain may also call some kings and pocket pairs below the king.

 

Whether or not to bet the river really depends on your view of the opponent and if they are going to bluff their missed broadway and/or flush draws. Readless i bet/fold as I want the villain to call with their Kx, Axhh and possibly some pocket pairs 88-JJ. These hands most villains are going to check behind if we check the river. Their calling range to a bet on the river will be wider then their bluffing range (if they bluff).

folding_aces_pre_yo
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March 22, 2015 - 8:55 pm
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The thing is , we have $2000 behind in our stack and the total pot size OTR is around $2000. If we bet half a pot we will have 20bb left….just seems bad to b/f?

 

If v shoves river after we have made that bet,  what will the top of there range look like?

Kalculater
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March 22, 2015 - 9:21 pm
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When villain shoves I would think the top of their range they do that with is 55, 66 for sets (77 may not make it to the river), maybe the occasional 34 (particulary hearts) and some 2 pairs like A5/A6/A7 (mostly of hearts).

 

I am unsure whether betting 1/3rd pot and folding to a villain shove or shoving ourselves is better. If we sized it bigger on the flop and turn we could easily shove for less than a PSB on the river and get some heros from Ax and Kx. This may look like a busted broadway/flush draw ourselves.

DTUSC
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March 23, 2015 - 12:38 pm
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I feel like it is close to bet or check on river and would probably just depend on whether I have a read on V.  With no read I would likely go with the more cautious c/c line also since I'm not sure if he is capable of bluffing and it's an awkward stack size to bet with in this spot.  

There are several hands in his range that beat us and a big bet commits us while a small bet may entice him to make a big semi-bluff otr with hands like Axhh which would be tough to call.  A check leaves it open for him to bluff or bet for value, but it would likely be an amount that leaves us with a functional stack when we are beat.

Follow up question.  What would we do here if V raised our bet on turn?

Kalculater
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March 23, 2015 - 6:22 pm
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For villain to “semi-bluff” over a 1/3rd bet pot would be disastrous and any semi-capable villain will not do that. There is no point to raise the river with a hand that you mentioned (Axhh) when villain has particularly good showdown value and can beat some 3barrel bluffs in our range such as broadways, combo draws (broadway+hearts) and other flush draws.

DTUSC
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March 23, 2015 - 6:56 pm
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Sorry, you’re right. no reason for him to bluff Axhh here given the showdown value. I let my knowledge of hero’s hand sway my thinking.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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March 26, 2015 - 9:02 pm
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@kal , you say that 55/66 will be the top of villians range and a hand like A5/A6, though don't you think that our defeaut read should be that v will likely raise these otf or raise it up ott? there's a lot of money behind , i think v would likely want to build a pot and get value from Ax which could easily been in hero's range and to get value from straight and flush draws?

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