I just watched a TPE training video and an interesting hand came up.

Small blind $600, big blind $1,200, antes $1,200

UTG+1 bets all-in $17,829

UTG+2 bets all-in $29,792

SB (hero) bets all-in $32,224 with Ah, Ks

If you are hero in small blind (with almost 27 BBs), do you ever fold with Ah,Ks when there have been two all-ins before and you barely have the UTG+2 covered?

Let’s run the numbers (% winning hand in parentheses using a poker odds converter):

Scenario 1: One opponent has an inferior ace (Ad, Qs) and the other opponent has a pair (Jh, Jc)

Hero (Ah, Ks): 33.25% to win the hand

Ad, Qs: 19.55%

Jh, Jc: 45.80%

Scenario 2: Both opponents have pairs less than aces or kings

Hero (Ah, Ks): 36.17% to win the hand

9d, 9h: 18.21%

Js, Jh: 45.34%

Scenario 3: Both opponents went all-in really light

Hero (Ah, Ks): 36.87% to win the hand

Qh, Js: 28.23%

6d, 6c: 34.68%

Scenario 4: Both opponents have pairs, one of which is a monster (aces)

Hero (Ah, Ks): 4.90% to win the hand

Ac, Ad: 75.41%

Js, Jh: 18.56%

Scenario 5: Both opponents have pairs, one of which is a monster (kings)

Hero (Ah, Ks): 24.51% to win the hand

Kc, Kd: 56.62%

Js, Jh: 18.28%

In these five scenarios, hero’s Ah, Ks wins against two opponents 33.25%, 36.17%, 36.87%, 4.90% and 24.51%. That’s not very good. I realize hero wins some side pot money in some cases where he does not win the main pot, but my point is the math does not seem terribly great.

In fact, the reality of this hand was scenario 2. The TPE pro felt this was a really great spot for him. The only argument I can make for going with Ah, Ks against two all-in bets is the fact that to win tournaments you have to accumulate chips and if you get there with A-K you will have a really big stack. But is that really a sound philosophy?

The math just doesn’t make sense to me. In fact, let’s go one step further. Let’s create the best possible scenario for hero’s Ah, Ks:

Scenario 6: Hero has both opponents’ hands dominated

Hero (Ah, Ks): 53.87% to win the hand

As, Qd: 22.48%

Ad, Jh: 19.51%

Scenario 7: Both opponents lose their minds

Hero (Ah, Ks): 48.82% to win the hand

2s, 7h: 17.83%

10c, 8d: 33.09%

In a hand where he has both opponents dominated (possible but not likely), hero is barely better than a coin flip to win the whole pot (yes, I am ignoring the possibility that hero wins a side pot, although not really if he loses to the bigger of the two stacks that he barely has covered). In a hand where the opponents have lost the minds and one has the worst hand in poker and the other has two cards that are neither suited or connected (highly unlikely), hero’s Ah, Ks is ever so slightly less than a coin flip to win the whole pot (once again, yes there could be a lesser side pot win, but not if the bigger stack of the two opponents wins the pot)

So my question here is whether Ah, Ks is a fold or a call when there are two all-in bets before hero has a chance to act? The math to me says fold. Is this line of thinking correct, or is this a case where you should be willing to gamble to give yourself a shot at making a deep run?

If I am completely brain dead in Nittyville, please tell me why.