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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Is 99 ever good here?

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Is 99 ever good here?

zampana

Lighting Money On Fire

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January 25, 2017 - 7:13 pm

I played this a couple weeks ago so I don’t remember my read on villain. Stats are 45/0/57 over 20 hands, so never raises but can get frisky it seems.

No Limit Hold’em Tournament T10/T20
Buy-in: $2.30+$2.30+$0.40 USD Hold’em No Limit
PokerStars
7 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG – UTG (

T2,675)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T1,452)
MP – Hero (T1,452)
CO – CO (T1,392)
BTN – BTN (T1,452)
SB – SB (T1,576)
BB – BB (T2,004)

Preflop: (

T51, 7 players) Hero is MP with 9♥ 9♣
UTG calls T20, 1 fold, Hero raises to T66, 3 folds, BB calls T46, UTG calls T46

Flop:

8♣ K♠ K♥ (T229, 3 players – BB: T1,935, UTG: T2,606, Hero: T1,383)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets T177, 1 fold, UTG calls T177

Turn:

5♣ (T583, 2 players – UTG: T2,429, Hero: T1,206)
UTG checks, Hero bets T442, UTG raises to T884, Hero ???

I range myself thus in this position, and believe others at the table would as well if they were watching: 77+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo — 148 combos

This is my thought for UTG range after the BB call: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo; Weights: AA:25%, KK:25%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, AKs:25%, AQs:50%, AJs:50%, ATs:50%, A9s:50%, KQs:50%, KJs:50%, KTs:50%, AKo:25%, AQo:50%, AJo:50%, ATo:50%, KQo:25%, KJo:25%, KTo:25%

Looking over this again maybe I shouldn’t discount his big hands so much since he hadn’t pfr, yet at least over 20 hands, which isn’t much really.

Flop: I’m cbetting my monster value hands: Ak, KJs, KK, KQ, 88 — 48 combos — and my marginal value hands/draws and bluffs: AA, 99+, AQ+, 87-98s – 54 combos

BB folds. UTG calls. I revised his range as such: 77+, AJs+, A9s, KTs+, K8s, QTs+, JTs, T8s, 98s, 87s, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo; Weights: AA:25%, KK:25%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, AKs:25%, AQs:50%, AJs:50%, KQs:50%, KJs:50%, KTs:50%, AKo:25%, AQo:50%, KQo:25%, KJo:25%, KTo:25%

Again, I might be undervaluing his bigger hands and he could very well be sitting on trips here. His calling to me doesn’t really say much – could be slowplaying, could be floating, could be peeling…

Turn: I’m turn bettering my heros monster value: Ak, KJs, KK, KQ, 88 — 48 combos and now trimming out my marginals and bluffs. Still continuing with AA, QQ, JJ, AcQc, 98s, 87s – 27. To get this range down I later dropped my 99, TT and the big aces, but in the hand I did turn bet the 99s. When raised, is anyone ever calling for SD? Have to assume a huge river from him and really I’m only ever assuming my 99 could show value with the two outer. Even there I’m beat by K8s… The only thing that makes me wonder is he hit the min raise button on the turn. I can’t decide if that shows weakness or strength…

Anyway, any thoughts as always appreciated.

Turbulence

Falkirk, Scotland

Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done

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January 26, 2017 - 9:53 am

is this a bounty SNG? not that it really matters too much but would be nice to know for sure.

Anyway, given that you all have 1500ish chips I assume its an SNG. Without going into deep details about this specific hand I will give a more general answer about playing middling pocket pairs in the early levels of a SNG. Treat them like small pocket pairs, you are pretty much set mining with them but have more showdown value so try to get to rivers as cheap as possible. Basically, in the early levels 66-TT will cost you big and win you little unless you hit a set. These hands are significantly more valuable in the later stages though and you can happily get them in pre in many situations.

In the hand above I would have probably limped behind and played with caution post. In general in SNG early stages you want to be conserving your stack as much as possible unless you are certain you have the best hand. As played, I would check back turn and hope for a cheap showdown on the river.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

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zampana

Lighting Money On Fire

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January 26, 2017 - 3:06 pm

Yes sorry, progressive KO SNG. Much looser than standard SNG. My plan pf was to iso the early limp, but I hear you – conserve conserve conserve.

Agreed the turn needs to be checked. Assuming a blank on the river, are you ever calling a 3/4-1 pot size bet from villain, assuming my range. 99s at that point are basically bluff catchers, correct?

rbbeagles13

Grinding Micros

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January 30, 2017 - 1:17 pm

Yes, 99 is basically a bluff catcher if he bets river.

Preflop I think is fine, I think I would prefer a bigger raise to iso more effectively or a limp behind a little more than a raise to 66, but it’s not a disaster.

OTF I think that the bet is perfect, as it will entice calls from some hands you have crushed (lower pps) and get hands with significant equity out (QJ, A high).

OTT a check has to be mandatory, for this exact reason. You really want to see the river after you were called on a KKx flop. You might get a lower pair to bet thinking it’s for value. And, if you DO bet, you HAVE to easily fold to a raise. No hands worse than yours are raising for value, a backdoor flush draw that picked up equity OTT seems unlikely to check raise here. What bluffs do you think he is calling the flop and ck/raising the turn with? What value hands?

So, as played, I think it’s a clear fold.

zampana

Lighting Money On Fire

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January 30, 2017 - 1:47 pm

Yes, agreed. He’s betting Kx or a full house for value, or at very least a FD, which is far more likely to improve on the river than our 99s, and even if it doesn’t hit and he pushes, is there any way I can call that? Absent any other reads of loose wild play, the fold looks right in retrospect. Thanks!

theginger45

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February 13, 2017 - 12:52 pm

Min-check-raises like this are very often extremely nutted. I think folding is reasonable here, especially since you bet quite large on both flop and turn – your range looks quite strong, but villain clearly isn’t too afraid of it. Villain has trips or better almost always here.

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