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(1 votes) 
January 27, 2013
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Here is back story. $28 10K on True Poker 64 people get paid, 65 left.
Villain has 48 BB and is 21/10/4 after 181 hands. He is 17% PFR from early to middle pos. Has been aggro for the last 30 minutes. Stealing blinds with no challenges from the table.
Hero have been pretty active. I have 43 BB with 27/16/10. Also have an 85% cbet.
Action: Blinds 1000/500 100 Ante
Villain raise 2x from UTG+2
Hero calls from cuttoff. hero cards are KJo
small and big fold, pot is 6400
Flop is 6KJ rainbow
villain bets 3200, Hero calls
Turn is a 3 of off suit. No flush possible
Villian Checks
Hero bets 5295
Villian check raise to 15885
Hero ????????
If I fold I still have 32 BB. Villain could have AK, KQ, AA, 66, 33, maybe K6s I discount the KK, JJ. I dont think he does this with AJ or any other J combo. When I plug into equity calculator I get 77% in my favor against that range.
Your thoughts TPE world?
October 21, 2013
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Call turn, to call all rivers imo…
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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NatSel said:
If I fold I still have 32 BB.
Agree with Riar.
The above shouldn't even cross your mind. If folding is correct, then fold. But folding doesn't suddenly become better or worse based on how many BB you'll have left.
(OK technically occasionally it does but it tilts me because this gets mentioned in every thread on these forums, like way more often than way more important stuff like pot odds, but seriously it's a consideration like 2% of the time and you all need to stop focusing on it so much!!!)
July 6, 2014
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I'd be 3bet jamming here, villains line is very strong, and as you have top two pair as blockers to potential sets I find it more likely this is a bluff. As the only draw realistically possible is a gutshot to broadway I don't see why he would be check raising so large as nothing to defend against. I also don't believe you've shown great strength up to this point so there would be no reason for him to be check raising for value.
40-50BBS on the bubble is generally above average, so a double here – or even getting him to fold it here would leave you with a big stack, and presuming min cash is ~$50, and first will be approaching 2k it's definately worth the 'gamble' to get it in here.
I presume he ended up turning over 66 or 33, but even so I believe 3betting is the best option?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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If you think he's bluffing, why do you prefer shoving to calling?
July 6, 2014
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Yeah I don't really thinking about it, as long as it isn't a fold
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Calling turn, calling all rivers. I guess maybe an ace you could fold, but you'd need a very solid read or timing tell.
Agree with Andrew that your remaining stack size if you fold doesn't matter here. People focus way too much on that.
January 27, 2013
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2% ???? I would still have a stack that can still make 3bet/fold. Being able to attack the blinds knowing I can find a fold on a 3bet. The table has shown little aggression. I feel there is more than 2% value vs. a stack that is only good for shoving for blinds with marginal fold equity.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I'm not saying a 30BB stack is only worth 2% more than a 10BB stack. An EV calculation already assumes that a 30BB stack is worth a lot more than a 10BB stack. What I'm saying is that many people don't even bother doing the EV calculation and just say “well if I'm wrong I don't like the stack I'm left with so I guess I'll fold” and that's almost always a mistake. It is usually correct to risk losing most or all of your stack to make a +EV bet/call/raise. There are perhaps 2% of cases where it isn't, yet it comes up constantly on the forums as though it were the first thing most people were thinking about.
January 27, 2013
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Thanks Andrew…. I always do the EV calculations at this stage. After seeing you have a 75%ish against villain, could you ever make a fold? I’m trying to see if I could have gotten out of this hand.
January 27, 2013
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Thanks for the feedback guys. Looks like no one is folding to the turn check/raise. I tanked a bit, did my Recall of the Andrews hand reading vids and assigned the range from above. I reraised allin on turn/ he called and had me covered. Went to the river drawing dead. He had KK. Was pretty sure it was just a cooler, just want to be sure. Thanks again.
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