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Interesting satellite bubble spot
emb
Playing Freerolls
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August 16, 2012 - 7:17 pm
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This is from a satellite to a UKIPT event.  There are 3 packages to be won, worth £1195.  Everyone has already locked up the 4th place prize of £200.  The big stack in the big blind has already shown himself to be a competent player with a decent understanding of satellite bubble play.  He has been putting a lot of pressure on the remainder of the table.  We’re first to act.

 

Poker Stars £100+£9 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t800/t1600 Blinds + t150 – 4 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): BB = 25.7, t41125
hyroman (BTN): BB = 8.9, t14262
hotgyser (SB): BB = 6.4, t10222
scazy9 (BB): BB = 96.5, t154391

Pre Flop: (t3000) Hero is CO with K of clubs A of spades

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FloppedBackdoorTrips
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August 16, 2012 - 7:28 pm
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I guess my first question is…does villain actually understand bubble play, or is he just bullying?

 

Because if I were in his shoes with that stack, I wouldn't be putting pressure on people, I would be sitting on my hands.  With two-thirds of the chips in play, the only way he doesn't get a seat is by doing something really stupid.  There's no point for him to be trying to accumilate anymore.

 

If he's just jamming every hand, just go ahead and fold at this point.  If he's being reasonable, just minraise and play poker.

shawnivey
Lighting Money On Fire
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August 16, 2012 - 7:29 pm
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i think with  being 3 packages the correct play is min raise fold, you only wanty to call it off vs the small stacks…did the #s a long time ago and i think you need QQ+ to call it off vs the big guy profitably

emb
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August 16, 2012 - 7:44 pm
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FloppedBackdoorTrips said:

I guess my first question is…does villain actually understand bubble play, or is he just bullying?

 

I think he does understand.  He's minraising a lot when he's first to act which effectively puts the short stacks into an all-in or fold situation and makes it difficult for me to enter the pot.  However, he's not been recklessly aggressive and has opted not to call when the short stacks have shoved into his BB on a couple of occasions.

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FloppedBackdoorTrips
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August 16, 2012 - 7:58 pm
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My calling range against villain is AA only, and possibly not even that.

 

Honestly, he should recognize your open as very strong and just let you have it.

emb
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August 16, 2012 - 8:14 pm
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shawnivey said:

i think with  being 3 packages the correct play is min raise fold, you only wanty to call it off vs the small stacks…did the #s a long time ago and i think you need QQ+ to call it off vs the big guy profitably

I'm pretty sure that even calling it off with aces is unprofitable here.  Here's a few ICM figures:

 

Equity at start of hand: £1113
Equity if bet and win blinds and antes: £1125 (+12)
Equity if minraise fold: £1108 (-5)
Equity if I double up through BB: £1167 (+54)
Equity if somehow manage to get stacked: £0 (-1113)
 
Even if I get it in as an 80% favourite, if I win, my equity only increases by £54.
If I loose it decreases by £1113. 
Average would be (0.8*54)-(0.2*1113) so I loose £177.8
 
 
 
shawnivey
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August 16, 2012 - 8:25 pm
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then why did u post this? thakns for wastin our time

emb
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August 16, 2012 - 8:43 pm
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shawnivey said:

then why did u post this? thakns for wastin our time

Apologies for trying to promote discussion and share thoughts with fellow TPE members 😉

p3dactor
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August 16, 2012 - 9:10 pm
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shawnivey said:

then why did u post this? thakns for wastin our time

I actually found it pretty interesting as I don't play satellites, so I hope that was just a bit of tongue-in-cheek? I think its a good post and a valuable discussion.

shawnivey
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August 16, 2012 - 10:07 pm
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ithought u were askin for help then telling me i was wrong? just wasnt sure why you were asking for help, if it was simply to show others u hsould fold everything well done carry on

 

not sure i ever fold AA tho

bennymacca
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August 16, 2012 - 11:02 pm
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post your calcs in the OP as well next time as well, i think that is the best way to go

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