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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Interesting river decision...

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Interesting river decision...

Killingbird

Cary, NC

TPE Management

Forum Posts: 4582

Member Since:
April 6, 2010

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April 16, 2011 - 6:47 pm

Reviewing some hands from a session a few nights ago.

As I recall, Villain was active, seeing lots of flops and probably best described as a “station”.

Full Tilt Poker $15,000 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300/t600 Blinds + t75 – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

kgr1010 (BB): BB = 33.9, t20359
killingbird (UTG): BB = 48.9, t29360
yumyum2 (MP): BB = 58.2, t34896
TheMiltMan (CO): BB = 36.7, t22047
NuTzFliZZy (BTN): BB = 14.2, t8497
muggis (SB): BB = 35.7, t21432

Pre Flop: (t1350) killingbird is UTG with J of hearts T of diamonds
killingbird raises to t1200, 3 folds, muggis calls t900, 1 fold

Flop: (t3450) A of clubs K of spades 4 (2 players)
muggis bets t600, killingbird raises to t1899, muggis calls t1299

Turn: (t7248) 4 of diamonds (2 players)
muggis bets t600, killingbird calls t600

River: (t8448) Q of diamonds (2 players)
muggis bets t2400, killingbird requests TIME

DroppinDimes

Guest

Guests

April 16, 2011 - 8:03 pm

I think he has ace here most of the time could even be a flush draw with his small lead on the flop and him flatting your reraise then betting 600 again on the turn ….i might be wrong but i think im putting in a small value raise on the river, I know it's a paired board and runner runner flush got there but you said he was a station and prolly call with worse.

wyldeyed

Guest

Guests

April 17, 2011 - 8:38 am

Had villian shown any nut type hands down. Did his betting coinside with such behavior as his river lead. I feel like he is trying to block/value an A here. Guess a call is super nitty and makes you have no tough decision if he shoves it in your face. Just really seems like a raise call on the river.

G0liath

Guest

Guests

April 17, 2011 - 9:24 am

Im prolly raising here. Since there was no 3bet pre his range is weighted against QQ+. He also has lots of weaker hands that he calls you with since he is a station.

Go for value since of all the times you are called, you win more times then you lose. Therefore its a +CEv value bet

Stinger3388

Guest

Guests

April 17, 2011 - 9:41 am

I see that donk lead time and time again with a flush draw. Maybe even Axcc here but not always an A.

When he fires the turn 600 again I think he is trying to find out how strong you actually are whilst trying to get a cheap river with a kind of blocker bet. If you call the turn he can spike a club or fire out regardless what falls since you held back the agression on the turn.

I think he has a missed draw more than half the time and it would be lucky if it was Axcc but thats less likely since he has showdown value.

I probably jam but im playing SS and MS and I dont see this situation often as its usually shoved by this point. Im just trying to get into a HS mindset

Stinger3388

hawkeyeK9

Guest

Guests

April 18, 2011 - 12:13 am

Feel like a weak ace most of the time but his bet on the river could indicate making two pair like KQ, which we still beat of course. Our worst case scenario is Q4, I think he never plays A4 or K4 like this. Since it is unlikely he has the Q4, I think we can value raise here.

hapetimes

Guest

Guests

April 18, 2011 - 6:25 am

what g0liath said:)

Hagbard Celine

Guest

Guests

April 18, 2011 - 11:06 am

if he had more behind you could raise/fold but theres 15k behind and will be 12k in the pot after you call the 2400 so i think i would just jam.